No. Far too early to know the truth.
2026 Israel - Iranian conflict [TEMP LOCKED]
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No. Far too early to know the truth.
Iran may yolo and go ahread to destroy the Saudi's infrastructure. High oil prices is bad news for the us economy and for Trump whom is supposely known for driving down oil prices.
The anti-gov protesters in Iran may end up being pro-government if their "saviors" make their lives worst off with continue bombinb and lack of electricity or food.
Downside is it will become a very expensive war, weapons depleted, and withdraw in shame. Economy will be strained. Democrats will win.
Iran can fight a conservative long war by letting your enemy launch more missiles while you retaliate with fewer missiles and drones in each sessions. You don't want to launch all your inventory at once.
In addition to what others said (e.g. dwindling munitions, retaliatory attacks vs US assets, etc.), it's useful to point out that high oil prices are NOT good for the US. Oil is a globalized commodity, when you disrupt a big chunk of global supply from one region, it becomes expensive everywhere else. The oil & gas industry makes up less than 10% of the US economy. When prices increase, the other 90%+ suffers. The US can try to ban oil/petrol product exports, but I doubt the big oil lobbyists will just sit on their hands & allow the greatest profit opportunity in a generation to just be taken away by their regime.
EDIT: it's also useful to note that retaliatory attacks don't have to be limited to just US oil companies' assets or oil-related industries at all. ANY US/US-owned assets/personnel of any industry are legit targets (e.g. local data centers of US tech companies).
Unconfirmed reports of the death of Benjamin Netanyahu???
Wishful thinking
If the US was bombing Iran from across the Atlantic, yeah. But it has to base its forces in the region, which opens them to direct attack by Iran but more importantly opens their host countries to attack so long as they host those bases. This puts political pressure on them to rein in the US.
This is why Dubai in particular is being attacked - a lot of Trump's corruption goes through there so attacking it applies a lot of financial pressure on him.
Isn't he out of the country or something? This guy was in special forces. You bet he covers every part of his ass when it comes to security etc.
Most important thing if they really want to play the long game is to shut down all the main gulf airports for months. Via drones and missiles. They'll need to take a page from the Houthis.
Big caveat however.
We had the same conclusion last time, if they decided to fight long enough and take the economic hit, they could do extensive economic damage to Israel. But we got a 12-day war instead.
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