Not exactly sure of the status of WS-17 right now, the episode made it sound like that it was put on the backburner if not paused outright.
PLA Air Force news, pics and videos
- Thread starter Jeff Head
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LLM didn't do a super precise job, though. 2030 total, according to the graph, is clearly around 3700. While LLM has it at 3900. There are other errors too.
This might be a bit more precise, rounded to nearest 50.
2024- 2100
2025 -2150 +50
2026 -2350 +200
2027 -2700 +350
2028- 3050 +350
2029- 3400 +350
2030- 3700 +300
2025 saw retirement of J7, with likely 100+ remaining airframes retired within a year, but future years will not see as many planes retired in a single year. Though we might still see close to 50 old planes retired per year in some years. +200 total increase is sort of doable for 2027 I think. But then a jump to 350 within just a year seems too steep. IF production volume does continue to rise, I'd say hitting 3000 is unlikely before end of 2029.
This might be a bit more precise, rounded to nearest 50.
2024- 2100
2025 -2150 +50
2026 -2350 +200
2027 -2700 +350
2028- 3050 +350
2029- 3400 +350
2030- 3700 +300
2025 saw retirement of J7, with likely 100+ remaining airframes retired within a year, but future years will not see as many planes retired in a single year. Though we might still see close to 50 old planes retired per year in some years. +200 total increase is sort of doable for 2027 I think. But then a jump to 350 within just a year seems too steep. IF production volume does continue to rise, I'd say hitting 3000 is unlikely before end of 2029.
It depends a lot on how many 4th gens (J10A/B, J11B, Su-30/35) and JH-7A remain in service. That's about 850 aircraft in total right there (excluding J-11BS trainers). If they're kept and (presumably) updated then total numbers will rise rapidly, if they're rather replaced by 5th gens then the total will remain static or slowly rise.
I think total production of J20 and J35 variants can easily top 200 per year, plus however many Flanker variants PLA still wants (mostly J15T/DT and J16D) - maybe 50 per year.
Personally I expect a slow rise in manned fighters but a fast and very large rise in UCAVs of various types and this is where the growth in force structure will mainly be.
I think total production of J20 and J35 variants can easily top 200 per year, plus however many Flanker variants PLA still wants (mostly J15T/DT and J16D) - maybe 50 per year.
Personally I expect a slow rise in manned fighters but a fast and very large rise in UCAVs of various types and this is where the growth in force structure will mainly be.
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It's one of the reasons I called it "decent enough", it's still shot through with a lot of cope. There's a much better overview here:
Good catch!
Probably what I deserve for experimenting with a LLM for once, but since we're at it 一不做二不休 . . .
What's going to be produced there?
and the delusion of hunting down DF-26 TEL inside the heart of China
From the sourceView attachment 170268
Interesting video! Thanks for sharing.
According to the speaker, retired USN Commander , who had previously served as the Assistant US Naval Attache in Beijing ():
- AVIC will be producing 250 to 300 4th and 5th generation fighters annually by 2027 (he probably actually meant 4.5 and 5th generation fighters).
- Under the "worst case numbers" scenario for the US, the PLAAF and PLANAF will have as many fighters as the USAF, USN and USMC combined by 2028.
- "By 2029, China will have the largest fighter force on the planet and will continue to grow."
Before or after they’ve bombed Three Gorges Dam?
I don't know why these people think PLAAF needs to induct 130 more 4th generation aircraft a year. I also don't see evidence that PLAAF added 170 4th gen aircraft in 2023 and another 120 in 2024? Seems like J-10C induction stopped and J-16 is stopping at this point.Good catch!
Probably what I deserve for experimenting with a LLM for once, but since we're at it 一不做二不休 . . .
View attachment 170274