we are still minimum few years away from service. then further time require for adaptation and tactics. so fully operational not before 2030. let see
Chengdu next gen combat aircraft (?J-36)
- Thread starter Blitzo
- Start date
manqiangrexue
Brigadier
I dunno, automation, computation and AI are moving so fast, this aircraft may take far less time to test than with traditional methods and it may look like a pressed timeline when it isn't. I wouldn't be surprised at all if some very time-consuming steps can be dramatically accelerated with China's new capabilities that were not there when J-20/35 were being designed.
this can be true for testing and training with modern software/simulation.
but for J-36 completely new package of electronics/avionics being developing. new architecture for next generation radar and sensors. F-35 still not getting new radar and J-20 already one generation ahead in this category. now imagine what they are planning for J-36. these things take time.
Even if PLAAF wants to go full winology mode and runs it into service in one year you can’t formulate proper tactics/train pilots to operate it proficiently in such a short timeframe, especially for a revolutionary new type of aircraft that’s no longer just a fighter, at least in the strictest sense of the word.
I would be very surprised if the J-36 enters IOC in the next 3 years.
The first public flight of the first prototype was merely days before January 2025, which lines up neatly to the first flight of the J-20 in January 2011.
J-20 IOC was 2017, a gap of 6 years, so J-36 IOC of 2031 sounds reasonable as a baseline assumption. Granted, there are a lot of extrapolations in this.
Its currently 2026, and 5 years from now is 2031, so Shilao's prediction is merely the null hypothesis. Perhaps if timelines were compressed it could even be IOC in calendar year 2030 (lets say last month or two).
But IOC in 2029 is quite extreme. Especially since IOC J-20 in 2017 was still a half-baked design, using foreign engines without stealth serrations and unable or barely able to supercruise. Given recent WS-15 progress, there's a good chance that IOC J-36 in 2031 could be using WS-15 or even VCE, but early IOC J-36 in 2029 could be (and emergency J-36 in 2027 definitely would be) using WS-10C/C2s and that is tragic.
Even an early-gen sixth-gen fighter is probably still years away. But if we're talking minimal viable capability—just a long-range VLO (very low observable) platform optimized to launch PL-17s against enemy rear-echelon support aircraft like tankers, bomber and AWACS—that could potentially enter service much sooner.
I’m not suggesting the possibility of the J-36 being pressed into service early should be an indication of an accelerated armed reunification timeline, just that if a war happened to break out there would be some potential utility in early operational adoption in some very specific scenarios, even if it’s at a much lower level of maturity for the platform.
There won’t be much pilot training or tactics to develop in your scenario, just go out and hunt large enemy planes at very long range. No other PLA aircraft do this, not with PL-17 internally carried. You can just use it as a fighter in this scenario.
Yes, exactly. It’s a very simple conceptual employment but it’s literally doing something high leverage none of your other planes can do nearly as well.
China should roll out J36 in 2029 if they have all or most next gen subsystems ready. And I believed three WS15 is good enough for IOC. WS15 is a powerful engine and it is more than enough to provide all power generation needs. Anything less than WS15 I wouldn't roll out J36.
When VCE is ready, we can call it J36A
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