2026 Israel - Iranian conflict

[Gloire_bb]

You are correct that Trump has to care about midterms. It‘s also not like Iran is in a favorable position. Its economy is in free fall, regime is being sabotaged from inside and the people are looking for another opportunity rebel. It cannot afford a war right now.

And this is why you think that being chocked down(which already works) while being defenseless is a nice way to sort things out.
You went to the west, you don't plan to live through this idea yourself. It's wrong.

It‘s them who turned a proxy war into a hot war by attacking Israel itelf first which then broke the ice for Israel to attack Iran itself which didn‘t turn out well for Iran even though Israel also didn‘t walk away with happy feelings.

It wasn't them - current Iranian regime is just not capable of something so proactive. Hamas isn't and wasn't under their control.
Hamas tried to force Iranian hand by giving them no options - but it was a mistake, Iran didn't. And(both) lost everything.

My take is that some elements in the regime simply drinl their own koolaid.

There are elements, but at this point caving in simply stopped being rational.
They're at a point where continuing doing what they do is a certain path to collapse - perhaps within Trump term. Iran just crumbles economically, and it's hard to see a way this can be resolved by backing down in any way that will not make matters worse.
What they can do is to force Trump into an unpopular war, and try their best to nont get caught like last time. Ideally, this will force TACO. But unlikely. I.e., war.

 

[latenlazy]

Oh no, China can do a lot. It just won't - China only forcefully interferes in its immediate neighborhood.

Please lay out all the things that you think China can do in this situation and all their downstream consequences.

 

[Gloire_bb]

Please lay out all the things that you think China can do in this situation and all their downstream consequences.

Low key - place around a few elint ships and a couple of destroyers around, one shadowing the CSG.
And chat about what they and satellites see, so very loud.

Good luck starting war of this kind with element of surprise absolutely denied; not just Iran, it'd have almost certainly denied any chances to sneak out Maduro.
Btw, typical Soviet trick - and even Russia did it to US over 2010s a couple of times (though in Russian case it tends to be supported by SSGNs). It's a question of will really.

Downstream consequence is that it's direct challenge to US outside of declared sphere of interests; declaration of IR equality and de facto claiming a status of superpower.

 

[uguduwa]

And this is why you think that being chocked down(which already works) while being defenseless is a nice way to sort things out.
You went to the west, you don't plan to live through this idea yourself. It's wrong.

It wasn't them - current Iranian regime is just not capable of something so proactive. Hamas isn't and wasn't under their control.
Hamas tried to force Iranian hand by giving them no options - but it was a mistake, Iran didn't. And(both) lost everything.

There are elements, but at this point caving in simply stopped being rational.
They're at a point where continuing doing what they do is a certain path to collapse - perhaps within Trump term. Iran just crumbles economically, and it's hard to see a way this can be resolved by backing down in any way that will not make matters worse.
What they can do is to force Trump into an unpopular war, and try their best to nont get caught like last time. Ideally, this will force TACO. But unlikely. I.e., war.

I am not Iranian. I am from a politically neutral country. Some people work in defence/interested in geopolitics just for the love of the game you know

I am not sure what you are trying to mean here because any Iranian action might cost Trump his midterms but for the regime it‘s their lives. In the highly unlikely scenario, they could get Trump to TACO and set the condition for opening Hormuz strait to lifting sanctions if that‘s what you are getting at. Sanction relief is pretty much the only way out of this crisis for this regime.

——-

Key takes:

AD assets are being moved from pacific to CENTCOM

Gulf states won‘t allow their airspace used for an attack but would use their military if they come under attack first

400kg enriched uranium is unaccounted for

 

[Gloire_bb]

I am not Iranian. I am from a politically neutral country. Some people work in defence/interested in geopolitics just for the love of the game you know

I am not sure what you are trying to mean here because any Iranian action might cost Trump his midterms but for the regime it‘s their lives. In the highly unlikely scenario, they could get Trump to TACO and set the condition for opening Hormuz strait to lifting sanctions if that‘s what you are getting at.

Well, they aren't really getting to hold their lives/status either way, if US/Israel get their way. The problem is there are things that Trump can't really afford/he doesn't like(long war, nation building), and this is a bargaining position. Iran, in its current form, can get out of it only by being ready to actually sustain an "unwilling" war with US/Israel.
Like was/is in their basic doctrine, and like they did in 2025 (which they did survive, after all), but ideally not quite as disastriously. Which is, not miss sucker punches, and start getting at least some return from their massive AD investment over last 2 decades.

It isn't about being Iranian. I overall find it somewhat immoral to make biased advices from the safety of a 3rd country. Only observation.

AD assets are being moved from pacific to CENTCOM

Gulf states won‘t allow their airspace used for an attack but would use their military if they come under attack first

Like US sorties will be grounded, radars and insallations - put offline?
It isn't really in their power. Their airspaces aren't needed for overflight by strike sorties and/or weapon release in any case.

 

[latenlazy]

Low key - place around a few elint ships and a couple of destroyers around, one shadowing the CSG.
And chat about what they and satellites see, so very loud.

Good luck starting war of this kind with element of surprise absolutely denied; not just Iran, it'd have almost certainly denied any chances to sneak out Maduro.
Btw, typical Soviet trick - and even Russia did it to US over 2010s a couple of times (though in Russian case it tends to be supported by SSGNs). It's a question of will really.

Downstream consequence is that it's direct challenge to US outside of declared sphere of interests; declaration of IR equality and de facto claiming a status of superpower.

I’m pretty sure Iran already gets lots of military intelligence from China and Russia. That’s not exactly going to do anything to affect final outcomes if the US really wants to regime change Iran.

 

[tamsen_ikard]

I’m pretty sure Iran already gets lots of military intelligence from China and Russia. That’s not exactly going to do anything to affect final outcomes if the US really wants to regime change Iran.

If that was the case then why did Iran get so flat footed in the 12 day war?

Either Iran actually doesnt get that much intel from China and Russia.

Or the Chinese and Russian intel agencies are not competent especially when it comes to middle east and the intel iran does get is wrong.

 

[uguduwa]

Well, they aren't really getting to hold their lives/status either way, if US/Israel get their way. The problem is there are things that Trump can't really afford/he doesn't like(long war, nation building), and this is a bargaining position. Iran, in its current form, can get out of it only by being ready to actually sustain an "unwilling" war with US/Israel.
Like was/is in their basic doctrine, and like they did in 2025 (which they did survive, after all), but ideally not quite as disastriously. Which is, not miss sucker punches, and start getting at least some return from their massive AD investment over last 2 decades.

It isn't about being Iranian. I overall find it somewhat immoral to make biased advices from the safety of a 3rd country. Only observation.

Like US sorties will be grounded, radars and insallations - put offline?
It isn't really in their power. Their airspaces aren't needed for overflight by strike sorties and/or weapon release in any case.

I guess they can gain some concessions by making it clear that this war is not going to be a quick war but not sure how attacking tankers would achieve that. Maybe it would get Trump to TACO faster. There‘s also no clear plan of what happens in case the regime falls. Contrary to Iranian diaspora, I don‘t their prince is any effective in running a country and this poses a problem for the US because they would be in a position where they are unable to pack up and leave. It would also create a gigantic refugee crisis that Europe wouldn‘t want.

I don‘t exactly advocate for war for the resson that I don‘t live there. I also think it‘s equally immoral to advocate for an extremely unpopular regime. By their own admission several thousand protesters were killed and that‘s not a small number. Death toll ranges from 5000-30000 and every Iranian I know, including my own ex-girlfriend wants the country to be bombed. Doesn‘t mean I would want that.

Even if you exclude sanctions, it‘s a very corrupt, incompetent regime that completely messed up water management and Tehran could run out of water in a few months and you could also add that to the list of regime‘s woes.

 

[latenlazy]

If that was the case then why did Iran get so flat footed in the 12 day war?

Either Iran actually doesnt get that much intel from China and Russia.

Or the Chinese and Russian intel agencies are not competent especially when it comes to middle east and the intel iran does get is wrong.

Why would you expect China’s intelligence to be significant in the Middle East, a region China has not traditionally had a heavy footprint in?

 

[defenceman]

Hi,
what about Iran give away nuclear including missiles but been able to do a defence treaty
with Russia or China to safeguard its interest or provide bases to both of them or one of them
so what really happened Russia or China are not willing to give Iran their arm or they are not interested
in this kind of deal or they not been asked by Iran for this kind of leverage from these two countries.
thank you