2026 Israel - Iranian conflict

[Intention]

I believe the fatwa to be a genuine position but also necessary when you are primarily relying on ballistic missiles. If Iran were a declared nuclear power, they can no longer respond to their primary opponent with large salvos of BMs as that might elicit nuclear retaliation. After the 12-day war, it may have made sense to rush a test and also test a Qaem-100 derivative explicitly as an ICBM so that these can be given up in negotiations and allow Trump to get a "win". Of course there is risk but now they are in situation where the US is asking for more than they can realistically give.

Also, I am amused by all this chatter about hypocrisy or moral failings the week of this Epstein release. Most of the stuff you see on Twitter that is portrayed as senior figures or their children is nonsense. Even Shamkhani's daughters wedding video, though real, is completely misrepresented. Not that it is relevant anyway but this is grainy unauthorized cellphone video by a guest during the ladies' gathering. Shamkhani is bringing his daughter to the ladies' party, as is tradition, so she doesn't have to observe modest clothing in this women-only setting. There shouldn't be video of it but that is the world we live in now.

 

[_killuminati_]

Israel's demand on Iran deal now includes dismantling of Irani ballistic missiles. "Give up your ability to retaliate when we attack you."

1. No enrichment on Irani soil.
2. Removal of all enriched uranium.
3. Restrictions on the missile program.

________

Those who argue the nuclear-fatwa concept should ask first:

1. Why Iran enriches uranium in the first place?
2. Why Iran gives restricted access to IAEA inspectors?

________

The drone that was shot down was, reportedly, performing a manuever towards the USS Abraham Lincoln, 800km away from Iran in the Arabian Sea.

The drone, initially, was involved in a [failed] seizure event by an Irani boat on a US-tanker which fled the scene towards the USN carrier group while escorted by a USN corvette. The drone followed.

 

[uguduwa]

So what‘s the point of attempting to board a tanker? Are they begging for war because so far the US is very reluctant to involve. Some sources say that Israel is pushing Trump to strike.

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My take is that Iranian regime has different factions with competing interests doing their own thing. One faction seems to be begging for war.

 

[Overbom]

Curious how China will react.

It's all good and nice for China to calmly sit at the sides and pretend that world security issues don't affect it, but if/when Trump attacks Iran, and if Iranian leaders feel sufficiently threatened that central government will collapse and thus go full send against US/Israel

If/when that war expands in scope and Iranian government potentially collapses and energy supply routes to China are cut off from Middle East sea corridors, what would China do then? Sometimes, inaction is worse than action.

Same way that the before joining WW2, US couldnt just sit and pretend that everything was fine when Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan were clearly expanding with malicious goals. I am not advocating for general war, but US shouldn't push too much to destabilize China's energy security because in that case game theory would come in play - let's not expand further on this

For this reason exactly, I think that China is switching track now. I presume that satellite and other forms of ISR are being shared with Iran (just some commercial imagery with coordinates and clearly labeled US military installations, commercial dealings bro!)

Ideally China should be sharing as much real-time vectors of US military assets and weaponry as possible. Limitations exists of course because Iran is clearly not as integrated as Pakistan is with China, but any help there would be helpful. Small bonus that it would enable the PLA to test it's ISR capabilities in a real-time battle environment (albeit in different region)

Even if I despise this incompetent and idiotic Iranian leadership, China should be careful to not allow a general Middle East war which would endanger energy supplies

 

[Gloire_bb]

So what‘s the point of attempting to board a tanker? Are they begging for war because so far the US is very reluctant to involve. Some sources say that Israel is pushing Trump to strike.

Idea is rather simple probably - Trump doesn't really have support for a long grinding war, and should he strike and then suffer losses - it's a political suicide. Iran does has that - moreover, external threat and civilian deaths from foreign bombing do more to increase stability rather than damage it. Iran has insurgency and unrest, but not the kind which immediately will tear it apart if bombed; quite the contrary.

If minority leaders are concerned about something - it's what will come, shall Ayatollahs go away. Because that is highly likely to be nationalists styling themselves as liberals.

There's also a visible consensus, that backing down in 2023-25 only backed Iran into the corner; everything ended up worse. They've cornered themselves, and now they may as well bite very hard.

 

[Neurosmith]

Curious how China will react.

It's all good and nice for China to calmly sit at the sides and pretend that world security issues don't affect it, but if/when Trump attacks Iran, and if Iranian leaders feel sufficiently threatened that central government will collapse and thus go full send against US/Israel

If/when that war expands in scope and Iranian government potentially collapses and energy supply routes to China are cut off from Middle East sea corridors, what would China do then? Sometimes, inaction is worse than action.

Same way that the before joining WW2, US couldnt just sit and pretend that everything was fine when Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan were clearly expanding with malicious goals. I am not advocating for general war, but US shouldn't push too much to destabilize China's energy security because in that case game theory would come in play - let's not expand further on this

For this reason exactly, I think that China is switching track now. I presume that satellite and other forms of ISR are being shared with Iran (just some commercial imagery with coordinates and clearly labeled US military installations, commercial dealings bro!)

Ideally China should be sharing as much real-time vectors of US military assets and weaponry as possible. Limitations exists of course because Iran is clearly not as integrated as Pakistan is with China, but any help there would be helpful. Small bonus that it would enable the PLA to test it's ISR capabilities in a real-time battle environment (albeit in different region)

Even if I despise this incompetent and idiotic Iranian leadership, China should be careful to not allow a general Middle East war which would endanger energy supplies

It's not about what China wants to do, it's about what China can do. And in the current circumstances, it's nothing other than to share satellite imagery and intel with the Iranians.

China intervening in Iran is about as likely as India intervening in Taiwan.

 

[uguduwa]

Idea is rather simple probably - Trump doesn't really have support for a long grinding war, and should he strike and then suffer losses - it's a political suicide.

There's also a visible consensus in Iran, that backing down in 2023-25 only backed them into the corner, everything ended up worse. They've cornered themselves, and now they may as well bite very hard.

It‘s clear that the American public is against any kind of foreign intervention but I doubt Trump gives a shit about that. It‘s his 2nd term and he‘s senile/old. I think that even Trump has no idea what he‘s doing and just listen to whoever has his ear for the time. So maybe his minions are afraid of their political future if something goes wrong.

Also I think that long term trends of American involvement after the Iraqi disaster in MENA suggest that it‘s simply not that interested in the region but keeps getting pulled into it every time it tries to look away. They got involved in Libya, according to Obama, after being convinced by Europeans and then the Europeans left Americans to do the heavy lifting and take all the blame which Obama criticized openly. Then after scaling back in Iraq, they had to come back due to ISIS which started with Yazidi genocide. And now they are leaving Syria and scaling back in Iraq but once again pulled into the region because of Iran-Israel conflict.

I think if there is a way for the US to achieve their objectives (neutering the Iranian regime) without war, they would take it to the displeasure of Israel. So it‘s unwise for certain factions in Iran to push for war right now.

 

[MortyandRick]

I am not Indian but not white and grew up half of my life in the West. I too thought like you and was curious about China and that‘s why I speicifically worked in a Chinese company and also dealt with Chinese in the Uni. From my experience, I would much rather prefer western way of life to East Asian even though it‘s not perfect.

You think that for now but the moment Chinese start to dominate, you would have other opinions because these societies are way too hierarchical and group-minded while western societies are more individualistic. So their version of supremacy is not going to be about their lifestyle being pushed but rather your resources getting stolen, territory getting annexed, industries being destroyed etc. Even on that other thread you see people fantasizing about bombing other countries that resist Chinese trade surplus. It‘s not the kind of world I want to live in.

if you are smart about it, you need to learn to prioritize your OWN interests and play different superpowers against each other to get what you want instead of blocking one power which makes you dependent on the other(s).

That being said, I like it that China is climbing up on the tech tree and in fact would be happy if everyone does the same.

Anyway this is off topic, I would stop here.

Ahh yes your "west is best" mentality.

You say you don't want to live in a world where we joke about "bombing other countries that resist Chinese trade surplus".

Yet, You'd rather live in a country that acctually bombs and overthrows other govt just for their own profits?!? Hypocrisy much?

Really shows your mentality. If you are smart, you'd welcome variability and other options that come with a multipolar world.

Otherwise enjoy being a second class citizens in your favored western country.

 

[Gloire_bb]

It's not about what China wants to do, it's about what China can do. And in the current circumstances, it's nothing other than to share satellite imagery and intel with the Iranians.

China intervening in Iran is about as likely as India intervening in Taiwan.

Oh no, China can do a lot. It just won't - China only forcefully interferes in its immediate neighborhood.
It is subject to certain freedom of interpretation (Chinese deployments to Alaska and around Australia) - but those are retaliatory measures in regards to events which happened in China's immediate neighborhood.

It‘s clear that the American public is against any kind of foreign intervention but I doubt Trump gives a shit about that. It‘s his 2nd term and he‘s senile/old. I think that even Trump has no idea what he‘s doing and just listen to whoever has his ear for the time. So maybe his minions are afraid of their political future if something goes wrong.

Trump cares damn lot about public opinion, esp. in midterm year. Eagle claw isn't exactly what he needs.

I think if there is a way for the US to achieve their objectives (neutering the Iranian regime) without war, they would take it to the displeasure of Israel. So it‘s unwise for certain factions in Iran to push for war right now.

You're contradicting youorself. If US can achieve their objectives without war(which they possibly can), and can't hope to maintain a war they started themselves - it's very wise to indicate that they'll get that exact war that they want to avoid, and which isn't necessary nor conductive to US goals. Israel wants one, sure - but working for Israel amidst Epstein bomb is exactly, exactly what Trump needs right now.

The only requirement for Iran is to be able to survive that very war, ideally inflicting enough pain on US to make it politically unsustainable. Can they or not is honestly a hard thing to predict.

 

[uguduwa]

Oh no, China can do a lot. It just won't - China only forcefully interferes in its immediate neighborhood.
It is subject to certain freedom of interpretation (Chinese deployments to Alaska and around Australia) - but those are retaliatory measures in regards to events which happened in China's immediate neighborhood.

Trump cares damn lot about public opinion, esp. in midterm year. Eagle claw isn't exactly what he needs.

You're contradicting youorself. If US can achieve their objectives without war(which they possibly can), and can't hope to maintain a war they started themselves - it's very wise to indicate that they'll get that exact war that they want to avoid, and which isn't necessary nor conductive to US goals. Israel wants one, sure - but working for Israel amidst Epstein bomb is exactly, exactly what Trump needs right now.

The only requirement for Iran is to be able to survive that very war, ideally inflicting enough pain on US to make it politically unsustainable. Can they or not is honestly a hard thing to predict.

You are correct that Trump has to care about midterms. It‘s also not like Iran is in a favorable position. Its economy is in free fall, regime is being sabotaged from inside and the people are looking for another opportunity rebel. It cannot afford a war right now. Iran also has a history of biting more than they can chew. It‘s them who turned a proxy war into a hot war by attacking Israel itelf first which then broke the ice for Israel to attack Iran itself which didn‘t turn out well for Iran even though Israel also didn‘t walk away with happy feelings. Iran previously provoked the US to destroy a big chunk of its own navy. My take is that some elements in the regime simply drinl their own koolaid.

Whether the US can sustain the war is not is something that I am interested in finding out from a technical point of view.