If the US was serious about competing, they would've folded the marine corps into the navy like normal countries do. The original justification for marines as an independent branch is centuries out of date.
PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency
- Thread starter pugachev_diver
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If the US was serious about competing, they would've folded the marine corps into the navy like normal countries do. The original justification for marines as an independent branch is centuries out of date.
How Nancy Pelosi’s 2022 Taiwan Trip Helped Japan Decide to Rearm
What was widely expected at the time from Pelosi’s visit — the first in a quarter century by one of the most powerful of US political officials — was a sharp reaction in Beijing, where the Communist leadership claims the island as part of its territory. And, indeed, China massively ramped up military exercises around Taiwan, including repeated crossings of a US-defined median line in the Taiwan Strait.
But when it subsequently launched ballistic missiles over Taiwan and into the exclusive economic zone of neighboring Japan, that set off a chain reaction. Hirohito Ogi, a former Japanese Defense Ministry official, said “that was a kind of wake-up call for ordinary Japanese citizens.” By the end of that year, he said, the Japanese public was solidly behind a major revamp of national security strategy.
Now at the Institute of Geoeconomics in Tokyo, Ogi explained in an interview earlier this month that the August 2022 incident had a powerful effect on Japan’s lawmakers and public at large. Whereas opposition party members previously were robust in their rejection of increased defense spending, by late 2022, debate had shifted to how to pay for it, not whether to proceed.
Fast forward to today, and Japan’s defense industry is one of the most dynamic parts of Asia’s second-biggest economy. The broad realization of Taiwan’s role in Japan’s security landscape, which the Pelosi trip and its aftermath prompted, also laid some of the groundwork for the latest confrontation that’s erupted between Tokyo and Beijing — this time over Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s public indication of military support for Taipei.
Good. If there's any country in the world which can be driven to fiscal collapse by military spending, it's Japan.
Amph ops training in ~2m waves (sea state 4)
Can we start a new Taiwan Strait News thread, and let this existing thread focus on strategy, tactics, operations, and equipment in a taiwan contingency, basically the military aspects? This way we can separate political news from military topics.
Increment 1 only had its first batch delivered to the US army in 12/23. Ally requests from Europe to procure this were rejected throughout 2024 and 2025 due to supply constraints. Australia only received and then tested its first batch on 7/25.
Increment 2's first live test was conducted on 7/24 and their hope is to double Increment 1's 500 km range to 1000 km. They're also hoping to have the Increment 2 complete delivery of the initial order to US Marines in 2028.
Increment 3 of the missile will include most of the same technology of Increments 1 and 2. Its main addition is to be the extension of the variety of armaments for the missile can carry, with it likely carrying more explosive munitions. However it is believed they will be made available following Increments one, two and four. So, no range improvements for Increment 3 and my guess is likely first delivery around the mid 2030s, give or take.
Increment Four is currently being competed for contracts by; , as well as a combined - team.. Not even any projections for delivery dates yet, but definitely long after 2028. Based on what I found, this one will be hoping to create a version of Increment 1 that can reach beyond 500km and a version of Increment 2 beyond 1000km.
For Increment 5: In December 2024, the director of the , Brig. Gen. Rory Crooks, separately explained that initial work on a fifth increment is underway, and a science and technology development initiative will kick-off in fiscal year 2026. The idea, he explained, is to design a missile that can be fired from an autonomous vehicle. "If you’re familiar with an [M270 Multiple Launch Rocket System] MLRS pod, it's about 13-feet long [4 meters]", the one-star general told the audience. "If you have something without a cab, that’s autonomous, you might be able to employ something longer than that." So maybe they'll have autonomous missile trucks that can carry longer missiles.
Just looking at the pattern of rejecting European allies who want this and focusing on US and Australia only, want to take bets on how limited volumes will be and just as importantly, how high unit prices will be? Increment 1 is already $3.49 million a pop. My guess is $6.99 million for each unit of Increment 2, and lord knows how much for each unit of 3, 4, or 5.
They'll try to catch up to China in non-hypersonic missile technology but they'll never come close in production volume and cost. And let's not even mention how far behind they are in hypersonic missile technology, in large part due to lack of new cutting edge wind tunnel designs (theirs are old and technologically insufficient, and no new ones are in the pipeline to be built as of last time I checked). China's real challenge will be to rapidly improve missile defense technology and scale those up to mitigate the risk to it coming from PrSM. Although it's only used by the US army and Australian army right now, and eventually US marines in 2028 if they don't get delayed, I imagine it'll only be a matter of time before we see it in Japan, South Korea, Philippines, etc. Probably in the 2030s.
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can't be help ....being soft only invite more bully . if china treat taiwan like the way US treat cuba or venezuela . taiwan would surrender long time ago already
you don't need an actual invasion to ruin a nation : just bomb/missile them couple of time each month to scare away any foreign investmnet , ruin business , cause chaos . ruin the population daily like make it hell .
whole fucking island gonna become a worst place to live on earth and the population gonna hang entire DPP then surrender in a flash
that how you conquer an island . not fucking let them become so rich , so talented to the point it worth alot more to save them in the eyes of other nations .
why do you think china/russia doesn't have any interest in saving cuba/venezuela out of US hand ? because US did what i said above to them
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Ironically, but logically, while many might hesitate to use force against Taiwan due to so-called kinship ties (partly because of the government's previous propaganda portraying cross-strait relations as peaceful), there have 0 obstacles to using force against Japan. Opposing the former might only be seen as indecisiveness, but openly opposing the latter will undoubtedly be regarded as a national traitor. The level of attention even surpassed that of Taiwan itself
Takaichi mobilized the Japanese right wing for political influence, and also mobilized way more Chinese to join the right wing on the Taiwan Strait issue. It is foreseeable that the impact on public opinion in mainland China will be less than before when the fire rises.
Takaichi mobilized the Japanese right wing for political influence, and also mobilized way more Chinese to join the right wing on the Taiwan Strait issue. It is foreseeable that the impact on public opinion in mainland China will be less than before when the fire rises.
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We all said then that China is able to boil the frog now as a result of using both pelosis and McCarthy's visit as the political pretext to improve greyzone tactics