China's Space Program Thread II

[gelgoog]

Can't CASC come up with some better approaches than this before reusable rockets are ready?! Especially replace those toxic fuel ASAP!
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It is not just China. Russia and India still launch with hypergolics.
In the case of Russia and China there are already in service rockets to replace the hypergolics. It is a matter of time until existing rocket stocks are used up.

Wow….local governments are more involved and bullish on Chinas space industry than private investors and venture capitalists it seems. It’s good to see Private Chinese space companies have good support (financial and infrastructural ) from the government.

If I was in the Chinese central government I would put a ban on the local governments investing in super heavy rockets. Otherwise someone might be dumb enough to do it.
The waste of money would make the race for supertall skyscrapers look cheap in comparison.

same with Russia, Europe and Japans space companies . They can’t compete at all with SpaceX. if anything China space industry is the only one who is still in the game and stands a chance to catch up with SpaceX in future if their private startups projects goes well, (which is not guaranteed) and they are able to really find that true sauce solution to be able to mass produce rockets like spacex has been able to do.

China and Russia are banned from launching satellites with US components. The truth is SpaceX launches are not cheaper than Russian or Chinese ones. Try comparing the price of a Soyuz launch with a Falcon 9 launch.

 

[gpt]

I don’t think we should be comparing Chinese private (or even state) space companies with Spacex. Spacex unconventional sucess has been an exception not the norm. The thing is spaceX has been so spectacularly successful that they make it look easy and make other competitors looks slow and even lazy.

And there's the practical side of things which is that it takes about a decade to put together a launch vehicle (just look at Vulcan and NG dev). SpaceX achieved its first booster landing in 2015 so let's assume China started taking it seriously right around that date. 2015->2025. It's on schedule.

 

[Asug]

This process is ongoing. Perhaps not as quickly, but it is steady.
(Graph shows the percentage of "old" rockets used relative to the total number of launches.)

Seriously, this is one area CASC has been a let down. I think in 2025 going to 2026 they should be retiring this old obsolete hypotonic rockets which were used at a time China was still a backward poor country. China has developed and advanced enough to still be using this same outdated rockets which keeps falling u controlled in sometimes inhabited area and most of all with their high toxicity , this is unacceptable in 2025 to be honest . I don’t understand why they haven’t transitioned to less toxic cryogenic rockets which they have already tested and put into operation . It might take some time and delays in launches to make the change but it’s worth it, since this continued use of old hyperbolic rockets is not sustainable or good for the environment/country . They need to be replaced ASAP. Unfortunately, I don’t see anything so far to show it will be the case anytime soon. I guess it’s just easy and more viable to carry on with this than make such drastic changes which I understand requires time, capital, human resources etc.

 

[bsdnf]

It is not just China. Russia and India still launch with hypergolics.
In the case of Russia and China there are already in service rockets to replace the hypergolics. It is a matter of time until existing rocket stocks are used up.


If I was in the Chinese central government I would put a ban on the local governments investing in super heavy rockets. Otherwise someone might be dumb enough to do it.
The waste of money would make the race for supertall skyscrapers look cheap in comparison.


China and Russia are banned from launching satellites with US components. The truth is SpaceX launches are not cheaper than Russian or Chinese ones. Try comparing the price of a Soyuz launch with a Falcon 9 launch.

Yes, even with Falcon 9's reusability, the launch cost of the CZ-2/3 remains lower or comparable.

It's so mature that it's difficult to abandon it when high-frequency launch missions are urgently needed, and it makes the development of subsequent models more challenging, they must achieve better economics than the CZ-2 while matching its performance.

 

[Salvationist]

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Was just thinking about some discussions around the company name.
They should've named themselves Blue Arrow Technologies. "BAT" for short.

 

[tiancai8888]

Can't CASC come up with some better approaches than this before reusable rockets are ready?! Especially replace those toxic fuel ASAP!

Rumours say this 2D has already adapted new debris control techs. The NOTAM of this stage's drop zone is changed from a rectangle to a circle. The stage also looks stable when falling

 

[Michael90]

Jiuquan is an inland site. Unless you switch to 100% reusables, you will never be able to stop rockets falling on landsite locations, hypergolics or not. Sure hypergolics are a problem but that's not the idea here.

Besides, western press won't care if its hypergolic or not, they will just point and laugh and say 'haha, look at these useless [anti-Chinese racial slurs]! They keep dropping rockets like dumb orcs!'

The only solution is shifting all expendable rocket launches to Wenchang - which sure, that's possible, but with the drop in launch cadance considering how many people bitch about how SpaceX's launch count is still higher than the whole of China, you want that?

I mentioned that China already has more efficient less toxic cryonegic rocket replacement for her old toxic hypergolic rockets. The fact that they havent fully replaced them yet is a policy decision not lack of capability. Afterall, they can't continue using this old obselete toxic rockets forever, they have to make the change one day, and i think its better sooner rather than later, so why not start now?

Plus its far better to use the new cryonegic rockets for launches inland thab this old highly toxic ones. Moroever, China can use grid fins whoch they jsve already tested for controlled rentry for the spent stages for her cryonegic rockets inalnd. This will help mjtigate most of the negative consequences of the landing in not only polluting less(due to the efficiency of the rockets) but also controlling the booster fall to a specific designated area where all the boosters will be falling. This will help mitigate most of the issues faced now.

 

[Michael90]

If I was in the Chinese central government I would put a ban on the local governments investing in super heavy rockets. Otherwise someone might be dumb enough to do it.
The waste of money would make the race for supertall skyscrapers look cheap in comparison.

Hmm...i dont think thats a good idea. Afterall most of the launch startups and lrivate companies get most of their capital from local government funds, since venture capitals dont seem to be as interested in taking the risk to invest in this private space companies as much as the local governments. So i dont think banning local governments from doing so will be a good idea. It might even kill off some promising private companies projects. If the capital market was well developed and mature enoigh to support the private launch companies raise capital for their projects then i will agree with you. However, for now we are not there, so China has to deal with what they have, not what they wish they had. So the current method to me is the right one.

 

[AndrewJ]

ZQ-3's landing pad (i.e. recovery pad) is ready.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1980826389050995084

 

[tphuang]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1980944488479555927

Jilin-1 is about to add another 20 satellites over the next few month and it is getting opened up to global customers.