China ICBM/SLBM, nuclear arms thread

antiterror13

Brigadier
Given the speed of building SSBN and it seems that 096 isn't a far along as 095, I'm pretty skeptical we're going to see dozens of 096 any time soon if ever. Maybe 12 we'll see eventually in like 10-20 years but surely not like 20+ or 30+ which is overkill and unnecessary.

I think once PLAN happy with 096, it will get built like no tomorrow, 1-2x per year is possible, along with 2-3x 095 and 2-3x 093B. I think 093B will still get built as it seems PLAN is quite happy with it and likely cheaper than 095
 

antiterror13

Brigadier
Except US launchers are very outdated. US relies on numbers for nuclear deterrence and had no intention of using nukes while they had conventional superiority. That conventional superiority doesn't exist anywhere near "superiority", anywhere near even the 2nd island chain. China since 2010s have relied on far superior launchers while only maintaining around 500 warheads to guarantee overkill of US + EU (since EU have militarily threatened China in the past and still continue to threaten involvement). China's economy and industry has already curbstomped the US to death around 2010. It is only western cope and self delusion that keeps this illusion of US economic might alive. US economy died slowly since 1970 and died completely around a decade ago. It's just a zombie now and every US administration has tried various tactics to make the zombie into a living being again. US has only military strength left. That is it. Nada. AI industry is a joke that produces useless slop. Money printer still goes brrrr and middle class will continue eroding until gone. Various events in coming years will only make this reality obvious to every moron and cool aid drinker. US is as brainwashed as North Koreans and Wahabis.

Outside of SSBN, Chinese launchers are much more hidden, mobile, or out of reach compared to US launchers. US silo based launchers use low tier masking and no hardening. Chinese silo based launchers are similar. This is where the similarities end. US has not (that we know of!) thousand km tunnel systems under mountains that can withstand direct xx MT warhead detonations. Many of China's ICBMs in those underground Great Walls make Iran's take on it look like an afterthought. China started building these underground Great Walls since the 1970s.

US also doesn't employ much container (rail based) and any TEL based ICBMs that we know of. SSBN is their go to. China has no strategic ranged stealth bomber or resilient and plentiful SSBN based nuclear deterrence which is why it focused on far superior delivery technology.

Now there are numbers of warheads (around 1000) and still building like there is no tomorrow (to ensure there can be no tomorrow for the West if the morons in Washington decide so). SSBN proliferation with Type 094 numbering over 6 units and with JL-3 able to hit anywhere in the US and EU from port. Type 096 componentry and techntested since mass production lines have finished some time ago, first 096 construction starting last year.

All this means there need to be more warheads to arm all the new SSBNs, new ICBMs with various delivery systems, and upcoming H-20. Silo and TEL ICBM numbers have also rocketed up. People here were saying 500 warheads is enough. How could that have been possible when China was building new DF-5 generation and JL-3 like sausages. This is just the ICBM and SLBM based component, now we have FOBS/ Intercontinental ranged HGVs that need warheads, long range cruise missiles (sub launched HCM and ship launched HGV) that could use nuclear warheads and when H-20 hits the tarmac, that's going to need warheads. 500 already wasn't enough for the existing numbers of DF-31, DF-41, JL-2, and DF-5 in 2015. China has approx 3x number of just DF-31 DF-41 and JL-2/3 (vs JL-2) numbers in 2025. You would already need approx 1500 warheads to feed those delivery systems from profileration of intercontinental ranged delivery systems that you've built up over the decades.

Now there are planned dozens of 096 that require ~12x3 of warheads each assuming 3 warheads MaRV per JL-3 for MT yields. Far more for smaller KT yields.

So, how many warheads (target) do you think the Chinese has in mind and what timeframe will get there?

Any bottleneck? do you think WgPu and HEU are the limiting factors?
 

ACuriousPLAFan

Brigadier
Registered Member
Given the speed of building SSBN and it seems that 096 isn't a far along as 095, I'm pretty skeptical we're going to see dozens of 096 any time soon if ever. Maybe 12 we'll see eventually in like 10-20 years but surely not like 20+ or 30+ which is overkill and unnecessary.
I think once PLAN happy with 096, it will get built like no tomorrow, 1-2x per year is possible, along with 2-3x 095 and 2-3x 093B. I think 093B will still get built as it seems PLAN is quite happy with it and likely cheaper than 095

We do know that the 094/A SSBNs field the JL-2 and JL-3 SL-ICBMs. In order to succeed the JL-2 whilst having to work with the present constrains of the 094/A SSBNs at the same time, this means that the JL-3 is anticipated to extend China's underwater nuclear deterrence coverage across much of CONUS from China's adjacent waters (instead of requiring the 094/A SSBNs to sail into the "true blue" WestPac or CentPac in order to do so), all while having the same payload capacity as the JL-2.

Therefore, it does makes sense to anticipate that the successor JL-4 SL-ICBM that will be fielded on the 096 SSBNs would enable greater payload capacity than its JL-3 predecessor, alongside other key improvements (e.g. enhanced IMDS penetration capability).

Hence, assuming that the 096 SSBNs will have 16x SL-ICBM tubes per boat (which is a very logical deduction) - Then having 10+ boats is plenty good enough for China. Not even the US and Russia plan for 20+ or 30+ Columbia and Borei SSBNs anymore, even when as their nuclear arsenals are bigger than China's.
 
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ENTED64

Junior Member
Registered Member
I think once PLAN happy with 096, it will get built like no tomorrow, 1-2x per year is possible, along with 2-3x 095 and 2-3x 093B. I think 093B will still get built as it seems PLAN is quite happy with it and likely cheaper than 095
I agree that PLAN can really crank these things out like sausages if they wanted to once they get everything fully tested and such. However it's unclear how long that will take and if we assume it will take another 2-3 years and then they produce 1.5 a year (a pretty fast production pace) it will still be a decade or so before there are a dozen of them. I'm very skeptical that PLAN will order 30 of these things, it's just unnecessary overkill. As @ACuriousPLAFan points out, USA and Russia don't have that many and their nuclear forces are significantly bigger and will remain so for some time.

We do know that the 094/A SSBNs field the JL-2 and JL-3 SL-ICBMs. In order to succeed the JL-2 whilst having to work with the present constrains of the 094/A SSBNs at the same time, this means that the JL-3 is anticipated to extend China's underwater nuclear deterrence coverage across much of CONUS from China's adjacent waters (instead of requiring the 094/A SSBNs to sail into the "true blue" WestPac or CentPac in order to do so), all while having the same payload capacity as the JL-2.

Therefore, it does makes sense to anticipate that the successor JL-4 SL-ICBM that will be fielded on the 096 SSBNs would enable greater payload capacity than its JL-3 predecessor, alongside other key improvements (e.g. enhanced IMDS penetration capability).
Yeah I mean there was a reason people called the officially designated JL-3 the JL-2A unofficially in the beginning I think. Because it has to fit in existing SSBN it's significantly more constrained. However, even though it's basically an in place upgrade, materials science and Chinese tech has advanced a lot since the early 2000s so it makes sense that despite these restrictions JL-3 still represents a major upgrade over JL-2. Nonetheless, given a new clean sheet SSBN, JL-4 will probably be another major set up from JL-3.
 

ougoah

Brigadier
Registered Member
Given the speed of building SSBN and it seems that 096 isn't a far along as 095, I'm pretty skeptical we're going to see dozens of 096 any time soon if ever. Maybe 12 we'll see eventually in like 10-20 years but surely not like 20+ or 30+ which is overkill and unnecessary.

The production halls that have completed construction would suggest otherwise. Sure, those halls are not only for 096 and 095 but also to consider futureproofing. Whether 096 or 098 and future generations of SSBN, these will certainly be a major component of nuclear deterrence.

So, how many warheads (target) do you think the Chinese has in mind and what timeframe will get there?

Any bottleneck? do you think WgPu and HEU are the limiting factors?

This forum largely disagreed with my position on Chinese nuclear warhead doctrine when the discussion was around 300 vs 500 vs more warheads. Appears those doubters were too confident in China preferring a smaller active warhead count. If China is at anywhere between 1000 and 1500 warheads today, I speculate the aim is to reach 2000 by the end of the decade. Mounting trade and political tensions with the US and a US that is increasingly (at least appears to be so) unreasonable and unpredictable means having a nuclear MAD option. 2000 warheads is a personal guess based on the assumption that up to half are countered whether on the ground or intercepted. A minimum of 1000 MT yield warheads are enough to meet any basic MAD. People VASTLY overestimate the damage nuclear warheads do. Yes they are incredibly destructive and a horrible thing for humans and the planet but we're talking about responding to an existence ending attempt and guaranteeing the ability to end all life on north america and europe as the minimum to qualify as MAD. In such a miserable context, nothing less than 1000 MT warheads detonating would do the job.

MT warhead has a destruction radius far smaller than people realise. 1000 warheads probably isn't enough for Europe and US let alone any allies participating in a MAD exchange. Sure Australia, Canada, Japan and others don't have nuclear weapons which is why I left them out of the list of likely targets for China. Again, doubters on this forum were very vocal about how 300 measly warheads is enough of a deterrence. 300 warheads would barely end Texas if half of them are destroyed on the ground and intercepted. People probably don't remember that both the USSR and USA at their peak stockpiles had WAY over 30,000 warheads.

30,000 warheads. Each.

Ask yourselves why that is and then think about what China might be aiming to have as a bare minimum. Even 1000 warheads is woefully inadequate if you're dealing with nutjobs like Trump and his admin plus supporters. You gotta remember you can't just threaten to end the main targets, there are those cheerleaders on the sidelines who deserve a couple of suns. These people think they're heaven bound and even deserving of a Christian heaven. lol. When you're responding to belligerent arsewipes who have threatened nuclear war on you in the past, you better come armed. China is no idiot nation. I doubt they believe in 500 warheads being enough and clearly have been proliferating nuclear warheads and delivery systems like mad.
 
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ougoah

Brigadier
Registered Member
Reaching parity with US or Russia would be a tiny bit of a waste since even half of that is going to end civilisation on the European and North American continent and over 90% of human life on those landmasses. The Earth would easily survive 5000 MT warheads going off in Europe, China and US. People seem to be fairly confident it wouldnt but all the literature that suggested this nuclear winter nonsense in the past was pure propaganda and blatant lies.

It remains unknown what the effects truly are but rest assured, the Earth survived much worse from space and numerous times. Not only did the Earth survive, it thrived after and life remains on Earth.

Nuclear deterrence's job is to ensure total or close enough to total destruction against your main antagonists that they will never consider even escalating conventional war beyond a certain point. Therefore, 2000 warheads ought to do that job. However this is only half of the equation. It is far more important to maintain delivery technology to ensure resilience against opposition BMD. Have multiple means of delivery and other forms of MAD mechanisms. Point of diminishing returns is probably at where China is currently. Concurrently, you'd have to continue improving and proliferating your own BMD to blunt the strikes as much as possible and a solid BMD will negate smaller warhead nations like North Korea, India, Pakistan, Israel and even UK and France to some degree.
 

bsdnf

Junior Member
Registered Member
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Otter implies that nuclear warhead count will reach parity with U.S./Russia.
He did not hint at it, but made it clear that the PLA have more than 600 warhead now, and will have way more nuclear warheads than this.

The US military's estimate of 1,500 warheads by 2030 is a serious underestimate, and this number may be revised and recognized in 2027. Which means there will be more deployed warheads than the US and Russia by 2030
 
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