No worries. Just a clarification of what "initial" might mean, not just with you but with multiple posters prior to your post.
I get that the airframe count for J-15 is already past that, probably in anticipation of populating Fujian. I also get that the pilot:airframe ratio is also higher than 1:1 - but the actual billets on Liaoning/Shandong are limited - hence the comment that the pool to draw from is highly limited without degrading the capabilities of 2 mature units.
I think what you are talking about raises a question about the readiness and role of CV-16/17 in peacetime in the last few years.
My perception is that CV-16/17 has been focused on two primary roles:
- maximizing mission availability
- its primary mission in these recent years has been mostly to maximize train cadres of pilots as well as provide training opportunities for supporting escort ships to operate in an experienced CSG manner, while having less focus on actual long range and long duration deployments (they do these every now and then to ensure the ship is capable of doing so, but it is not a primary focus)
All of which is to say, CV-16/17 in these recent years are fully combat capable carriers that I suspect have been focusing on generating as many experienced naval aviators, carrier crew, and experienced surface combatant crews for CSG work, as practically possible, to develop capacity -- with a secondary focus being going on frequent long range or long duration deployments.
All of which is a long way of saying, I suspect the current/recent existing J-15/T pilot cadre is probably already disproportionately oversized for what would be needed for CV-16/17 if they were doing "regular frontline combat duties" most of the time (which for the last few years they've spent most of their time doing training and working up as many pilots and crews as possible, while only occasionally doing frontline combat duty/patrols).
While the Fujian is undergoing testing and the actual airframes and pilots on board are very limited, it also stands to reason that the future airwings have already been stood up and doing land-based workup training, readying themselves for deployment onto Fujian once commisioned(?). So the requirements for those pilots is very here and now and is probably part of the reason for the high airframe count for J-15s beyond attrition replacements and rotation - hence again, the difficulty of pulling experienced pilots from currrent population without affecting current capabilities.
You are talking about future pilots that will embark upon CV-18. I have already agreed and said that those pilots would likely not need to be drawn from existing J-15/T drivers.
The future airwings for J-35 and KJ-600s you speak of, have likely yet to even be fully physically produced yet.
Meanwhile myself and others have been talking about the imminent pilots for CV-18's initial airwing when it first enters service, and those would most likely be drawn from existing J-15/T drivers.
I'm talking about the literal first 8-12 J-35s and 8-12 J-15Ts and 3-4 KJ-600s that will form part of CV-18s first ever regular fixed wing implement in service, and the pilots who will fly those airframes.
It is those pilots who I expect to be drawn from experienced J-15/T pilots. After that, for maybe a year or two of gradual airframe expansion and developing more pilot experience and more pilot capacity, I expect them to transition to freshly trained pilots for J-35 and KJ-600.