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[Lethe]

2, it's ironic that French didn't really feel offended to integrate foreign armament even relatively recently (indian mirage 2000 upgrades are very fresh).
Problem is somehow specifically Rafale.

The eventual IAF acquisition of 36 Rafales explicitly dispensed with all the complicated business of technology transfers because those matters were one of the major roadblocks for the failed MMRCA acquisition program. Expediency became the name of the game. But if you do not negotiate and contract for source code access and specific integrations on specific schedules, then you are not going to get those items without further contracts and further payments. In the case of the UK, even being the strongest of allies and a "Tier 1" partner on F-35 is apparently insufficient to get source code access or Meteor or SPEAR integrated on that aircraft before the heat death of the universe.

Given India's track record, it would be unwise to take any narrative of poor India being held back by devious foreigners at face value -- whether those foreigners be French, Russian, or American. That additional Rafales were contracted for IN only months ago, and that the aircraft appears to be the IAF's preferred choice for further acquisitions, is more telling than any teething issues that may exist.

Tejas update!

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I know it's easy to make fun of the Indians, but honestly, the only way out for them is to build their own stuff. Otherwise they will be stuck buying other people's expensive toys forever.

As a refresher: The Tejas Mk1A was not originally planned. The IAF had assumed they would skip straight to Tejas Mk2 from Mk1. The Mk1A was a compromise solution conceived in 2015, with numerous improvements over the first generation Tejas. The reason given was that making too many changes to Mk2 would be expensive. So better build on an existing platform. Think of it as a stop-gap measure.

The first flight was assumed to be in 2022 according to the original plan. Sources to the paper claim that the IAF will get first deliveries H1 of 2026.

But today's deal is another batch. These are supposed to be delivered later: 2027-2028.

So summing it up, the IAF has now ordered 180 Mk1A. That's quite a lot for a "stop-gap solution". On top of this, work is progressing with Tejas Mk2 and of course AMCA.

This second batch of Mk. 1As that has just been contracted (yes, congratulations!) is intended to be delivered over six years beginning in FY 2027-28. With India's poor record of schedule adherence firmly in mind, I suspect they will be lucky to conclude the total Mk. 1A production order of 180 aircraft before 2035. In practice, a slower than anticipated production ramp is unlikely to be a problem because Mk. 2 development timelines will also undoubtedly continue to slip to the right.

 

[Gloire_bb]

This second batch of Mk. 1As that has just been contracted (yes, congratulations!) is intended to be delivered over six years beginning in FY 2027-28. With India's poor record of schedule adherence firmly in mind, I suspect they will be lucky to conclude the total Mk. 1A production order of 180 aircraft before 2035. In practice, a slower than anticipated production ramp is unlikely to be a problem because Mk. 2 development timelines will also undoubtedly continue to slip to the right.

IMHO takeway here is they're more sure about mk.1A, but much less so about mk.2 onwards.
For all chain delays, mk.1As now at least exist.
As far as i understand, second order is meant to be Uttam one(i.e. “mk.1B”）. If it wails - backup ELTA option won't go anywhere.

 

[Mt1701d]

I view it the opposite. When the Russians were still developing the plane, they wanted Indian co-financing. Clearly the Indians thought they should have gotten more ToT, but there was at least a greater incentive for the Russians to do so.

Now the Russians have an established platform. What's the incentive to transfer anything significant? They built the plane themselves from the ground-up without any Indian co-financing. For the Russians, this is no different than just selling a complete plane, because that's what it is. And so why would ToT be easier this time?

The Indians don't trust the US and obviously they won't buy anything from China. The EU doesn't have its own 5th gen jet. That only leaves the Russians. And this gives Russia leverage.

There's no incentive for ToT with India, especially an India with an unstable political alignment. Imo Indians should've kept quiet with the "made in India" scheme they've been parroting openly for the past 10 years which basically comes down to "give us the tech so we never have to purchase from you again", and I'm sure Russia has learned from China's development of the J-series. Both for France and Russia, India is a cash cow to be milked.

I think you both have a point and I for the most part agree with your assessment. However, I think there is a case to be made for a potential limited ToT or a least a ToT that offers a little more than what France or US might offer and not specifically on the SU-57 completely.

My primary thinking is in the engines, which is the primary pain point of the whole Indian combat aviation sector. At this moment the Indians are completely reliant on the US for Tejas, the French for Rafale and the Russians on SUs. The Kaveri is still on the drawing board with more dreams and dopamine hits from PowerPoints.

Now consider if Russians pulls 1,2 with the engines to get the MK1A and MK2 going with their older engines with full ToT with license, so that Indians won’t be waiting for US engines, keep the Indians on side while hitting the US and get them reliant on the Russian engines. Then a co-production for the SU-57, leave the lesser part for the Indians and keep the avionics and the more advanced engine in Russia. This whole thing as a package.

This might help the Kaveri in long run but as we all have seen the modus operandi of the Indians, as soon as a solution is in place for Tejas, MK1A and MK2, which are the most immediate problems and best fulfils the made in India national boasting needs, the funding for Kaveri will likely shrink and it will be further decades of dreams and dopamine hits.

I think ultimately from the way the Indians have acted so far this would be an acceptable gamble for the Russians. The Indians are too pound to reverse engineer anything, a full ToT on older engines will likely set the Kaveri project back as they analyse and digest the data. By the time they are done the world would have moved on. In the meantime, you get a bunch of cash, a partner to help build the best fighter you can produce off-loading some of pressure due to the war efforts and keep your cash cow from moving on to your biggest and most powerful rival.

This might also be partly my wishful thinking but I think there is a possibility of the Indians going for it, since this essentially means they are sort of going to be independent engine wise. It would be better if they help with Kaveri 2.0 and get licenses on that too.

 

[Gloire_bb]

India never wanted more RD-33 than it has. It knows this engine better than most in the first place - India is one of the first fulcrum customers, and one of the longest(now also world's largest!) active operators.

It's a very early military turbofan, and unlike it's relative (aka WS-13 family), it never got nowhere near the development it could've. On top of that, while cross-supplying with mig-29s isn't bad, this platform is past its peak in IAF. Mig-29UPGs went through MLU already, and last emergency order, which would've likely kept migs in service into 2040s, didn't happen.

M88s and future - larger it appears - Rafale fleet (which is now likely to approach 200 aircraft!) are a far more obvious choice. Especially if procurement will be parallel.

Original plan was of course F414(Tejas mk.2, TEDBF, AMCA), but it isn't too late yet.

 

[johncliu88]

India never wanted more RD-33 than it has. It knows this engine better than most in the first place - India is one of the first fulcrum customers, and one of the longest(now also world's largest!) active operators.

It's a very early military turbofan, and unlike it's relative (aka WS-13 family), it never got nowhere near the development it could've. On top of that, while cross-supplying with mig-29s isn't bad, this platform is past its peak in IAF. Mig-29UPGs went through MLU already, and last emergency order, which would've likely kept migs in service into 2040s, didn't happen.

M88s and future - larger it appears - Rafale fleet (which is now likely to approach 200 aircraft!) are a far more obvious choice. Especially if procurement will be parallel.

Original plan was of course F414(Tejas mk.2, TEDBF, AMCA), but it isn't too late yet.

Even Indian will most like to purchase more Rafales, but Dassault's production capability is quite questionable. Just learned from the France military thread that Dassault will increase Rafales' production to 30 planes per year to meet the export quantity. I just wonder if Indian places an order now, when they will have the planes delivered.

 

[Mt1701d]

India never wanted more RD-33 than it has. It knows this engine better than most in the first place - India is one of the first fulcrum customers, and one of the longest(now also world's largest!) active operators.

It's a very early military turbofan, and unlike it's relative (aka WS-13 family), it never got nowhere near the development it could've. On top of that, while cross-supplying with mig-29s isn't bad, this platform is past its peak in IAF. Mig-29UPGs went through MLU already, and last emergency order, which would've likely kept migs in service into 2040s, didn't happen.

M88s and future - larger it appears - Rafale fleet (which is now likely to approach 200 aircraft!) are a far more obvious choice. Especially if procurement will be parallel.

Original plan was of course F414(Tejas mk.2, TEDBF, AMCA), but it isn't too late yet.

Again I understand and I fully agree that the M88 and F414 are the obvious choices.

With regards to M88 it would depend entirely on how much the French are willing to give up, as this is their last great jet engine, at least for the foreseeable future and with the Indians looking to purchase more of the Rafale regardless I don’t see there to be a great incentive to give up, what is essentially is their last stranglehold.

As for the F414, there is basically no way the US will ever agree to a full ToT period, at least not with Trump at the helm, with his made in America BS and the great leverage the engine is for any of Trump’s ‘deals’. Added on to that the Indians aren’t exactly on the priority list for deliveries.

So the Indians are stuck regardless of what they choose.

 

[siegecrossbow]

I was on Tuesday at a conference in Vienna and had the chance to discuss certain aspects like this as well as I met yesterday a very knowledgeable Indian analyst and we discussed lots of issues, events and programs and in the end he told me.

1. Avoid IDRW at all cost, it‘s a watse of bandwidth and time and most of all brain-cells! It‘s PURE BS and only a click-bait site.

2. Since I‘m so often mocking Indian „progress“ or better to say the „ratio of claims to results“ he told me I‘m not even close to the amount of nonsense going on and totally irrational decisions being made by the MoD. I would be correct in all my claims and in fact it is even more worse!

How is this even possible???

 

[Atomicfrog]

India never wanted more RD-33 than it has. It knows this engine better than most in the first place - India is one of the first fulcrum customers, and one of the longest(now also world's largest!) active operators.

It's a very early military turbofan, and unlike it's relative (aka WS-13 family), it never got nowhere near the development it could've. On top of that, while cross-supplying with mig-29s isn't bad, this platform is past its peak in IAF. Mig-29UPGs went through MLU already, and last emergency order, which would've likely kept migs in service into 2040s, didn't happen.

M88s and future - larger it appears - Rafale fleet (which is now likely to approach 200 aircraft!) are a far more obvious choice. Especially if procurement will be parallel.

Original plan was of course F414(Tejas mk.2, TEDBF, AMCA), but it isn't too late yet.

If they have a change of engine supplier they will clearly need an engine that fit in the hole of the f404/f414. Rd-33 is longer and larger in diameter anyway... M88 would fit but they will not get license for m-88. Still it would fit and commonality with rafale could be a thing.

They need to fix their industrial base and fix their Kaveri. lt look like they are being in limbo on engine development.

It could help to have a complete engine licensing and tooling, even for an older type like rb199 to have at least a solid base with a proven design to test upon with full tech transfer.

 

[leonzzzz]

How is this even possible???

"Fiction needs to make sense, but reality does not"

 

[gelgoog]

The RD-33 had a fair amount of upgrades.

The RD-33MK added FADEC, increased service life to 4000 hours, and increased thrust by 7%.
I suspect the RD-93MA had more changes.
And then you have the TVC version of the engine in the MiG-29OVT demonstrator.