What if mega bomber options and other what-if theories!

[sunnymaxi]

Why does China need strategic bomber without air-fueling but US doesn't? Because China has no safe zones for air-fueling between US mainland and China, but US has so many. So before any new ground breaking technology which will enable planes to have a range of 20,000+ km emerges, China will not build any strategic bomber.

this specific thread is to discuss different theories regarding super heavy stealth Bomber.

China's next generation stealth Bomber H-20 program is near completion..

visit this thread for more information.'

H-20 bomber (with H-X, JH-XX)

For a bomber loitering time, range, and payload matter a lot more than speed. I don’t expect H-20 to be supersonic. Rumor has it that Tengyun is now completely a military project and if they need to deliver something fast, that’s the better platform.

www.sinodefenceforum.com

 

[tamsen_ikard]

this specific thread is to discuss different theories regarding super heavy stealth Bomber.

we are actually close to first flight of China's next generation stealth Bomber H-20..

I think H-20 itself will be a heavy stealth Bomber or a Supersonic Stealth Bomber. Cause if it was just a B-2 equivalent design, China would have been able to fly H-20 10 years ago.

We have already seen China flying multiple flying wing drones. We have seen a massive flying wing drone as big as the B-2. So, building a B-2 like plane is not really that big of a deal for China in my opinion.

If they delayed H-20 for so long, it has to be either they decided to make a much bigger flying wing Bomber that can strike CONUS and fit JL-1. Or they have decided to make a supersonic stealth Bomber. Both will be challenging enough to warrant the extra delay.

 

[leibowitz]

My theory is that the H20 is a hypersonic waverider, powered by rotating detonation or shock induced ramjet engines, capable of carrying 20 tons of payload to 10,000km ranges

 

[KevinG]

I think H-20 itself will be a heavy stealth Bomber or a Supersonic Stealth Bomber. Cause if it was just a B-2 equivalent design, China would have been able to fly H-20 10 years ago.

We have already seen China flying multiple flying wing drones. We have seen a massive flying wing drone as big as the B-2. So, building a B-2 like plane is not really that big of a deal for China in my opinion.

If they delayed H-20 for so long, it has to be either they decided to make a much bigger flying wing Bomber that can strike CONUS and fit JL-1. Or they have decided to make a supersonic stealth Bomber. Both will be challenging enough to warrant the extra delay.

Even US gives B-2 to China, China still can't use it to bomb US because of range. Of course China won't make B-2 equivalent H-20. Even C-5 converts all its payload to fuel, C-5 still can't fly back and forth between China and US. So what's the point of building a super-heavy strategic bomber which can't be used to bomb US?

You will say China can use JL-1 to make up the range of the bomber, but a mid-range JL-1 is much easer to intercept than long-range JL-3. And super-heavy bomber will be much more expensive per ICBM than SSBN, and also much less effective than SSBN, why even do it?

 

[tamsen_ikard]

Even US gives B-2 to China, China still can't use it to bomb US because of range. Of course China won't make B-2 equivalent H-20. Even C-5 converts all its payload to fuel, C-5 still can't fly back and forth between China and US. So what's the point of building a super-heavy strategic bomber which can't be used to bomb US?

You will say China can use JL-1 to make up the range of the bomber, but a mid-range JL-1 is much easer to intercept than long-range JL-3. And super-heavy bomber will be much more expensive per ICBM than SSBN, and also much less effective than SSBN, why even do it?

Delivering nuclear weapons is a secondary function of a stealth Bomber in my opinion. I actually consider the whole idea of delivering nukes via any kind of Air platform to be not that useful.

Nukes are significantly better delivered via Road Mobile ICBM and Sub Launched ICBM. This give you a survivable, concealable platform that can also launch on a moments notice. A Bomber actually has to fly for hours before it gets into position to launch its nukes. Those airfields could be destroyed before the Bombers could fly with their nukes.

The benefit of having a long range stealth bomber will be that it will be much cheaper to launch conventional strikes against CONUS rather than using ICBMs to launch conventional attacks.

First of all, it will be extremely expensive to build a sizable number of ICBM to attack CONUS conventionally. Then, we have also discussed before that even conventional ICBM can lead to nuclear escalation. But a stealth bomber launching long range Conventional cruise or Hypersonic missiles will not have that nuclear escalation aspect.

The Bomber does not to fly all the way to CONUS and fly back in its full tank. It can get aerial refueling on the way back. It can also carry non stealthy or stealth shaped drop tanks if necessary as well. Those tanks can be dropped before getting closer to CONUS for attack role.


Now if you are asking why China needs ability to attack CONUS? Cause US can attack mainland China. This gives US an impunity to think it can initiate a war with China without any blowback at home. China needs the ability to attack CONUS as a strong deterrent.

Moreover, if US-China war becomes a war of attrition, then Production ability will become the most important aspect of war outcome. Then if US can attack the Chinese mainland and destroy China's factories while US can produce without any issue, that's a big problem. So, China needs an ability to destroy US weapons factories as well.

 

[KevinG]

Delivering nuclear weapons is a secondary function of a stealth Bomber in my opinion. I actually consider the whole idea of delivering nukes via any kind of Air platform to be not that useful.

Nukes are significantly better delivered via Road Mobile ICBM and Sub Launched ICBM. This give you a survivable, concealable platform that can also launch on a moments notice. A Bomber actually has to fly for hours before it gets into position to launch its nukes. Those airfields could be destroyed before the Bombers could fly with their nukes.

The benefit of having a long range stealth bomber will be that it will be much cheaper to launch conventional strikes against CONUS rather than using ICBMs to launch conventional attacks.

First of all, it will be extremely expensive to build a sizable number of ICBM to attack CONUS conventionally. Then, we have also discussed before that even conventional ICBM can lead to nuclear escalation. But a stealth bomber launching long range Conventional cruise or Hypersonic missiles will not have that nuclear escalation aspect.

The Bomber does not to fly all the way to CONUS and fly back in its full tank. It can get aerial refueling on the way back. It can also carry non stealthy or stealth shaped drop tanks if necessary as well. Those tanks can be dropped before getting closer to CONUS for attack role.


Now if you are asking why China needs ability to attack CONUS? Cause US can attack mainland China. This gives US an impunity to think it can initiate a war with China without any blowback at home. China needs the ability to attack CONUS as a strong deterrent.

Moreover, if US-China war becomes a war of attrition, then Production ability will become the most important aspect of war outcome. Then if US can attack the Chinese mainland and destroy China's factories while US can produce without any issue, that's a big problem. So, China needs an ability to destroy US weapons factories as well.

If it can't deliver nuclear head, it can't be called strategic bomber.

If you attacked CONUS with conventional weapon, what make you think US won't respond with nuclear weapon? Do you dare to bet that US won't respond with nuclear weapon?

You said, the bomber chan get aerial refueling on the way back. Where to get aerial refueling, over Aleutian islands or Hawaii islands? Why don't US shoot down aerial tanker? Over Russia, how can China guarantee Russia is a reliable ally during war time? China is not a reliable war-time ally to Russia now.

 

[tamsen_ikard]

If it can't deliver nuclear head, it can't be called strategic bomber.

If you attacked CONUS with conventional weapon, what make you think US won't respond with nuclear weapon? Do you dare to bet that US won't respond with nuclear weapon?

You said, the bomber chan get aerial refueling on the way back. Where to get aerial refueling, over Aleutian islands or Hawaii islands? Why don't US shoot down aerial tanker? Over Russia, how can China guarantee Russia is a reliable ally during war time? China is not a reliable war-time ally to Russia now.

I said nuclear delivery will be a secondary function, not the main strategic benefit from developing the stealth Bomber. But it will ofcourse have that ability too.

In terms of launching conventional attacks, The idea is to achieve parity in strike capability vis-a-vis US since US can attack Chinese Mainland conventionally. This gives China deterrence against US thinking that it can strike China conventionally without any consequence.

I am sure China will only strike CONUS as a retaliation against US attacks on Chinese mainland. Now, if you think that will lead to nuclear attacks, then China can strike back with nukes too so there is no imbalance. But there is an imbalance now where only one party (US) can strike the other party conventionally.


Finally Aerial refueling, I think the Aerial refueller can also fly from Chinese mainland and fly over the Sea of Japan and cross into the pacific through the Kurils or Through the Miyako strait and get into position in the pacific while the H-20 returns back from its mission. It will provide refueling so that H-20 can come back to base. So, this will not require using Russian territory.

Crossing the Miyako or the Kurils can be a challenge if there are ground based Air defense from Japan, but I think the assumption is that China will secure Air superiority over the First Island Chain and will not have to worry about any SAM threat from Japan.

 

[KevinG]

I said nuclear delivery will be a secondary function, not the main strategic benefit from developing the stealth Bomber. But it will ofcourse have that ability too.

In terms of launching conventional attacks, The idea is to achieve parity in strike capability vis-a-vis US since US can attack Chinese Mainland conventionally. This gives China deterrence against US thinking that it can strike China conventionally without any consequence.

I am sure China will only strike CONUS as a retaliation against US attacks on Chinese mainland. Now, if you think that will lead to nuclear attacks, then China can strike back with nukes too so there is no imbalance. But there is an imbalance now where only one party (US) can strike the other party conventionally.


Finally Aerial refueling, I think the Aerial refueller can also fly from Chinese mainland and fly over the Sea of Japan and cross into the pacific through the Kurils or Through the Miyako strait and get into position in the pacific while the H-20 returns back from its mission. It will provide refueling so that H-20 can come back to base. So, this will not require using Russian territory.

Crossing the Miyako or the Kurils can be a challenge if there are ground based Air defense from Japan, but I think the assumption is that China will secure Air superiority over the First Island Chain and will not have to worry about any SAM threat from Japan.

You have a wrong understanding of power balance. US's conventional force has far superiority over Russia, so what? US still does not dare to attack Russia with conventional force. But US dare to use conventional force freely on Syria, Yemen, etc.

And US has so many air bases on Aleutian islands, why can't US fighters intercept Chinese tankers? If even Chinese bombers have a hard time reaching Miyako and Kurils, let alone fighters, how could China secure Air superiority there?

In terms of first island chain, without military bases on these islands, it is impossible for China to secure air superiority. What China can guarantee is that US will suffer unbearable loss if US meddles in wars within first island chain. That's enough for China

 

[tamsen_ikard]

You have a wrong understanding of power balance. US's conventional force has far superiority over Russia, so what? US still does not dare to attack Russia with conventional force. But US dare to use conventional force freely on Syria, Yemen, etc.

And US has so many air bases on Aleutian islands, why can't US fighters intercept Chinese tankers? If even Chinese bombers have a hard time reaching Miyako and Kurils, let alone fighters, how could China secure Air superiority there?

In terms of first island chain, without military bases on these islands, it is impossible for China to secure air superiority. What China can guarantee is that US will suffer unbearable loss if US meddles in wars within first island chain. That's enough for China

China can do its own Island hopping if needed in a full-scale war between US and China. But I don't think we are talking about that here. We are talking about Using stealth Bombers that can fly over the open pacific, reach CONUS and then attack US mainland targets.

Logically, China cannot use the shortest route between China and US, to do that. It will take longer route, take detours if necessary and fly over open ocean as much as possible. Moreover, H-20s stealth characteristics will prevent any US controlled island based radars to detect H-20 when its flying towards the CONUS.

If China can go past the Miyako strait, its pretty much open ocean after that and no amount of US controlled island can detect the H-20 while its flying towards the US over the open pacific.



So, the only thing China needs to do is secure its air dominance over Riyukus. Then it can launch its strike on CONUS with the H-20.

Moreover, if H-20 stealth is good enough, it might be possible to fly through the Miyako without Japanese radars detecting anything.

As far as tanker is concerned, even if China is unable to secure its air dominance over the Miyako strait, it can develop a Tanker version of the H-20. That Tanker version will act as Buddy tanker and refuel after flying into the pacific.

 

[Blitzo]

Locking this thread and the H-20 thread for now.