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- Thread starter Jeff Head
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I'm out of the loop what new regulations
The ones against sharing military secrets online.
China's demographic structure is a long-term major negative factor, with immense and nearly irreversible impact. By the end of this century, China may have only 600 million people with a severely imbalanced demographic structure. However, times change. Just as people in the last century could not predict the internet and mobile technology of this century, future technologies may emerge to replace the shortage of labour. There may even be new social models that could reverse the declining birth rate. Currently, China possesses a vast pool of engineers and industrial capital. Over the next half-century, the world may transition from a low-wage, labour-intensive industrial model to a capital-intensive, technology-driven robotic industrial model. China still possesses the immense potential to drive global transformation.
What about pension payouts and social benefits etc, they are already showing signs that they are short on money with that and it'll only get worse with more and more people reaching the retirement mark hence less working population to collect money from.
In extreme cases, national debt can be expanded indefinitely. China's debt is denominated in its own currency, which can be seen as borrowing from its own people, so there is no risk of default. In addition, China is a manufacturing hub, so there is no need to worry about commodity inflation.
It's certainly a challenge, but China has shown the willingness to tackle it so it should be a solvable challenge. And realistically, China's prosperity and overall world position isn't based on its population any more. It's more about industrial scale, technology, and the government and social contract. As long as these persist, then China should still be in a superpower position.
The flipside to this is that there are major challenges to every other country in the developed world as well, and these countries are doing a far worse job at managing their own challenges. Just look at how the world is falling apart just from Trump's tariff wars. These countries can't even plan in the medium and long terms so they're going to have insurmountable hurdles unless there's a sea change in the way they're governed.
Very unlikely it gets as low as 600 million by 2100.
In fact, would even say it's unlikely that it reach as low as 900m.
I wouldn't be so sure about never again. As China gets richer and technologically advanced, there will be a huge influx of immigrants coming from all over the world. Whatever role US plays now as the beacon of Prosperity, China will slowly takeover that role. I expect China to be flocked with immigrants initially from SEA countries but then other places like (India!), LatAm, Africa and so forth.
Yes, its hard to imagine that now cause China is a 13K GDP per capita economy. But in 10 years it will be 30K and then influx of immigrants will start.