China's SCS Strategy Thread

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Deino

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Guys ... let's keep it simple: This is a thread on "China's SCS Strategy" and not about politics, country-bashing to the one or other side and in mind that within the last days too many political & provocative posts had to be deleted I'm currently considering to either close this thread or - IMO the better option - to immediately sent anyone posting again political stuff NOT related to "China's SCS Strategy" into a three month vacation!
 

SDtom

New Member
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Its not about how serious the accident is, its about the government not coming clean with it and trying to sweep it under the rug like nothing happened. They are deleting all picture and video of it on domestic internet. To my knowledge all of those accidents in/about the US were heavily reported both domestically and internationally.

Yupe, to me, the worst part of this whole incident is not the actually collision itself, after all it was just a minor accident and it doesn't change the reality or the calculus in the SCS, but it is actually the Chinese government blocking, deleting and censoring the information and discussion of this event. That's why I keep saying China's PR/Propaganda is so primitive. Instead of China setting, leading and telling the narrative of this event, now Chinese citizens will be getting the narratives from foreign sources, like from Philippines. Hope the Chinese propaganda department understands blocking information/dicussion is not the effective or correct way of doing thing anymore.
 

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
China’s reaction will come. It will be calculated to use this incident to gain a further strategic advantage just like after Pelosi stunt allowed PLA to normalise exercises near Taiwan. China always uses crises/incidents to shape the chessboard in its favour. We can’t say China didn’t do anything after Pelosi stunt. We can’t say China didn’t do anything after Trump tariffs. China was one of the only countries to hit back hard against the US tariffs including rare earth and other critical mineral restrictions. Chinese leadership knows how to play the game.
Maybe, I hope so, but the underlying sadness in our hope and anger is the fact that the Filipino ship didn't do anything special. We did it all to ourselves. First of all, no matter how brilliant a captain you are, you cannot make 2 enemy ships collide into each other; only those 2 ships can make that mistake. Secondly, the Filipino ship was literally just sailing in an almost straight line as fast as it could to run away from the CGC; it didn't even try to turn into the destroyer to cause a chase ship collision or anything. No tricks; even the Filipino captain couldn't believe we would make a mistake like that until the moments when the impact became unavoidable. We're getting angry wanting retribution on others for something that we did to ourselves. The proper response is to overhaul and improve ourselves for future operations; to rage at the Philippines for this is embarassment added on top of embarassment. That is why the reporting for this incident seems muted in China; public outrage is not appropriate given what happened.
 

tankphobia

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Global Times publishes footage from CCG 3104 (second half) and what I'm assuming is footage from PLAN 164 (first half):
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Again, the what isn't really that important. The fundamental question of why PLAN is involved and whether playing bumper boats so far out is worth it should be what China considers.

Even if PH navy were doing whatever dangerous maneuver, it should be on China to conduct themselves professionally.
 

cirvine11

New Member
The incident points to a potential issue with how commanders are being chosen. The very rapid expansion of all the Chinese sea services necessarily means that commands are being given to those who are rising quickly in the expanding service. The Imperial German Navy faced similar issues and used fleet exercises to vette (and often eliminate) potential command officers. Rigorous exercises cannot take the place of experience. However- they can show weaknesses in an individuals judgement … and also show their positive abilities. This incident shows basic errors in judgement and a disturbing lack of ship handling skills.
 

Wrought

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An illuminating perspective on the relevance of (controlled) aggression w.r.t. the recent collision. I guess such a mindset could be considered a silver lining, as it were, though it does not remove the imperative of avoiding unforced errors in the first place.

Foreign observers are often publicly appalled at the conduct of Chinese military—and paramilitary—personnel in the aftermath of such incidents. After repeated incidents in which Chinese personnel are said to have directed lasers toward foreign military aircraft, which can damage the eyesight if not blind the occupants who happen to be looking toward the source of the emitting laser, foreign observers have tended to characterize such Chinese conduct as unacceptable because, the publicly expressed logic goes, foreign military personnel “are just doing their jobs” and country x is not at war with China.

The publicly expressed sentiment that country x is not at war with China is, of course, true, and the moral appeal of “professional conduct” so as to avoid “unnecessary loss of life” among military personnel who are “just doing their jobs” is, of course, also understandable. And yet, the humans crewing the vessels and aircraft of all involved countries, including those of China, are agents of governments who willingly engage in competitive risk-taking and place their military personnel in harm’s way. No one professionally involved in such incidents should be under the illusion that they are not (often volunteer and financially compensated) pawns in much bigger games of competitive risk-taking. Moreover, the jobs of foreign military personnel are, like the jobs of Chinese military personnel, to train in preparation of killing foreign military personnel while accepting the risk of being killed themselves (while not all military personnel are in positions that will likely lead to active combat roles in time of war, all military personnel exist to support organizations that are intrinsically defined by preparation for the killing of opposing military personnel).

There is, as such, something profoundly incongruous about complaints against the use or threatened use of violence against military personnel in situations that fall short of an outright and clear-cut armed conflict. A military pilot who is mentally unprepared to die in flight due to a mechanical problem or adversary action has not found an appropriate vocation, and the commanding officers and crew of a warship who are mentally unprepared to die at sea have forgotten that they are not tourists aboard a cruise ship.

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Wrought

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My dumb take on this is that China does not really want the SCS to go kinetic (for reasons that are obviously unknown to us nobodies-on-interwebz), so that is why we still have the "can't touch me" ramming attack in $CURRENT_YEAR.

It's not dumb, and the reason is pretty obvious. Only a fool starts a fight when he is already winning without fighting. From the horse's mouth:


And you can consult millions of AIS broadcasts to see how the Philippines is steadily losing ground over time. They are of course doing their best to push back (as demonstrated recently), but they are weak and they are failing.

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All of these facts are readily apparent to anyone who actually keeps track of what's going on instead of only paying attention whenever some sensationalized video goes viral. Which is why I'm so contemptuous towards outraged netizens screaming about their bruised egos and missing the forest for the trees.
 
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