China's SCS Strategy Thread

[2=GT]

People who bitch and moan about this keep forgetting about past events—

1) 2008 Tibetan unrest — now quelled.

2) 2011 Xinjiang unrest and terrorism — now quelled. Xinjiang one of the safest places in.

3) 2019 Hongkong unrest — now quelled. Even former cucks shop in Shenzhen now.

4) 2022 Pelosi Visit — allowed three branches of PLA to salami slice like there is no tomorrow. Diminished ROC readiness and equipment lifespan while improving coordination within Chinese Air Force and Navy.

I feel that in the social media age people want instant gratification and don’t have patience for anything.

2011 - Obama's pivot to Asia - South China Sea became South China Lake

 

[TK3600]

A bit late to the party, but here's my two cents amidst the all the doomerism here. Now yes, it was a fuckup and those responsible deserve the hatchet. As for member reactions and all those feeling "depressed," I seem to recall that whenever Ukraine does one its Moskva style strike on Russia people here generally respond as such, "Yes it was impressive, yes Russian defences have a lot of holes, but it doesn't change the reality on the ground that Ukraine is irreversibly losing territory against Russia and there's nothing they or NATO can do about it." Apply the same logic here not just to make yourself feel better, but that is the gist of what I see from the situation. That whatever happened, nothing changes the reality of the ground with respect to China's control of Scarborough Shoal and continued naval dominance in the region. A single embarassing incident isn't going to make Bongbong Marcos anymore popular and his position against Sara Duterte any less precarious. A single embarassing incident too isn't going to magically make the US want to cross more of China's redlines. If it did, Trump wouldn't have extended the China tariff truce today.

So take a deep breath, do what you need to get the incident out your head, because guess what? The world would've long forgotten about yesterday by Friday and moved on to the next big story.

First of all, Philipine is not China's Ukraine, it is more like equivalent of Estonia to Russia.

Second of all Russia did what it could in the war, but Ukraine has some success here and there. Meanwhile Chinese is not even trying, all the problems are directly of their own.

Third, if you are going to use Russia as example, know that after seeking diplomatic solutions, they did fight back. We are not seeing this from China, nor should we expect it any time soon.

 

[Engineer]

Would that even help? Chinese military personnel are sometimes too brave for their own good…

I remember a story from some 10 years ago. During an annual army exercise, some grunt decided to dive under a tank to "sacrifice" himself and "blow" it up. Everyone shit their pants but nobody got hurt. In the end, the judges decided not to award points for this so as to not encourage the behavior.

 

[KFX]

Would that even help? Chinese military personnel are sometimes too brave for their own good

Not at this speed. Even far more experienced and professional navies, such as the US Navy, have accidents. Of course, the US Navy’s accidents don’t usually involve chasing a fishing boat, blinding people with lasers, or ramming each other in calm seas.

 

[MortyandRick]

This is a classic event where “David defeated Goliath”.
View attachment 157902
——I completely agree with this statement. As shown in the picture, the problem is still the lack of determination from the leadership. They only want interest, but they don't want to take any risks, afraid of the diplomatic and political risks brought by the escalation of the situation. So they threw the heavy responsibility onto the frontline personnel.

My attitude has never changed in recent years. 'Enduring' is just an excuse to cover up the timidity and incompetence of the leadership.

You bitch and moan about the govt leadership a lot.

From 2012 to 2025 this strategy of ramming and Collison worked well for china. China also escalated by now having warships in those waters, where before they only had CCG ships. That is an escalation for sure.

Yes the event was mobilized but these accidents were bound to occur.

It's easy I criticize after the fact but Please tell us, how would you have handled the situation from 2012 up to now?

 

[TPenglake]

First of all, Philipine is not China's Ukraine, it is more like equivalent of Estonia to Russia.

Second of all Russia did what it could in the war, but Ukraine has some success here and there. Meanwhile Chinese is not even trying, all the problems are directly of their own.

Third, if you are going to use Russia as example, know that after seeking diplomatic solutions, they did fight back. We are not seeing this from China, nor should we expect it any time soon.

I wasn't using Russia as a literal parallel to how the SCS dispute is playing out. I'm just strictly referring to the members' reactions to developments in that conflict vs. developments in this one and making a point that in the grand scheme of things, whatever actions transpire for better or worse are a minutiae when you take the power imbalance between the two forces.

For those saying that such incompetence from China is blood in the water for the Philippine's ace in the hole, ie. the US, well I'm waiting to see how they decide to push more of China's buttons. Tariffs would be a nice start, but oh wait they backed down on that too.

 

[MortyandRick]

Not at this speed. Even far more experienced and professional navies, such as the US Navy, have accidents. Of course, the US Navy’s accidents don’t usually involve chasing a fishing boat, blinding people with lasers, or ramming each other in calm seas.

Yes, US accidents involved hitting a reef, losing a couple planes due to ship turning, training exercise etc.

 

[KFX]

Yes, US accidents involved hitting a reef, losing a couple planes due to ship turning, training exercise etc.

Right — and those were in open seas or training, not chasing unarmed fishing boats, blinding coast guard crews with lasers, or colliding with your own ships while trying to block someone. Context matters.

 

[FriedRiceNSpice]

Yes, US accidents involved hitting a reef, losing a couple planes due to ship turning, training exercise etc.

US destroyers view colliding with smaller ships as beneath them: they prefer to get rammed by tankers and cargo ships.

 

[KFX]

US destroyers view colliding with smaller ships as beneath them: they prefer to get rammed by tankers and cargo ships.

True — at least when a US ship collides, it’s usually with a massive tanker, not a friendly vessel in the same formation.