Ok hear me out... I have a hypothesis (based on all deduction, no evidence) that neither Chinese shipped intended on ramming anyone. 3 things to keep in mind:
1) In videos prior to the ramming, the video shows the Philipino boat to be very close to 164, but further away from (and ahead of) 3104, 3104 could have the intention of catching up to it.
2) If 164 actually rammed the Philipino boat, then given the size (and height) difference, the boat would capsize at best, and broken down in 2 (or more) at worst. There will be casualties from the capsizing for sure. Chinese Navy has not shown a willingness to use such tactic and force.
3) the boat is too small for good visual from 164 bridge, if they are as close as one of the earlier videos have shown, then most likely 164 bridge doesn't actually see the boat visually, again, making the intentional ramming aspect of the operation very suspicious.
Based on those 3 trains of thoughts, I believe 3104 wants to chase the boat and close the distance, with 164 wanting to block, but no intention of ramming. Here's my hypothesis:
- The Philipino boat sped up and overtook 164 while being very close to it, and cut across its bow at very close distance
- 3104 was tunnel visioned on the chase and didn't realize how close they are to 164, and couldn't make it in front of 164
- 164 was more or less travelling straight this whole time, but didn't have good visual on the boat itself
Insert badly drawn MS Paint illustration:
View attachment 157860
