2025 Victory Day parade thread (workup, 3rd Sept)
- Thread starter Blitzo
- Start date
HGV > HCM.
I don't understand why military enthusiasts across the world appear to think HCMs are somehow a higher tier strike weapon than HGVs. Both HCM and HGV require rocket booster. HGV achieves considerably higher cruise and terminal speeds than scramjet powered HCMs. Most literature I've read over the years point to China's HGV flights average between mach 10 and mach 25+ whereas most scramjets (few public literature) operate between mach 4 and mach 10 with potential to achieve more but it is a delicate and unreliable thing.
Sure there are scramjets and there are scramjets and then there are scramjets. Who has managed to master what level? Is it worth the trouble? China sees four paths to HCM and hypersonic powered aircraft - rotating detonation, schramjet/sodramjet, combined cycle and scramjet. All of these have flown but to what extent is the readiness, reliability and resilience for aircraft and for single use ordinance?
Without more news about Chinese scramjet powered flights, it's probably worth assuming that while projects exist, the other three paths are the solution to hypersonic aircraft be it SSTO/TSTO, hypersonic "bomber" and potential future commercial aircraft. Meanwhile HGVs are so much better than HCMs except in flight altitude.
HGV = much higher speeds (for now), better steerability because hypersonic engines are likely to be delicate and unreliable for achieving military objectives, cheaper and simpler, can be produced at a faster rate.
HCM = can have a lower cruise altitude vs HGV.
Both are going to light up on every sort of passive and active sensor and it's not like HCMs can be terrain hugging or thermally stealthy.
Therefore engines for hypersonics can be concluded to pretty much be just for reusable, unmanned hypersonic aircraft which can be used for strike and A2A. Obviously also payload delivery to orbit and possibly one day, commercial flights.
The US and China probably won't field HCMs anytime soon. Russia's Zircon is a Boeing Hy-Fly, DF-100 like high supersonic (possibly terminal speed >mach 5) type of cruise missile. It isn't the wedge shaped air breathing glider that artist renderings make it out to be. Ukraine intercepted at least one Zircon and provided decent enough evidence to show it has and what the Zircon looks like. Its intake is exactly the same as Boeing Hy-Fly and a Chinese scramjet powered missile. If either the US or China manage to field an air breathing glider, combining the best of both types, that would indeed be a high end weapon that would extent the range even further but current technologies appear to suggest such a thing is still far from achievable. It would also be only for nuclear strikes since such a weapon would be prohibitively expensive and resource consuming.
So we have Hypersonic Glider Cruise Missile (HGCM) >> HGV > HCM
China has many HGVs in service and possibly HCM in service too. US has none in service currently but will likely field HGV in time. The LRHW cannot be compared to the US' other HGV programs. Their LRHW is basically a DF-15 like double cone MaRV. Can't even touch the range of a DF-26 or even a DF-21D. Accuracy... well DF-21D and DF-26 could hit moving targets since 2010s and demonstrated to the US in the late 2010s.
Russia claims to have Avangard HGV but errrrm okay maybe. Neither China or US has ever even commented on it. I mean even North Korea apparently has a working HGV (probably given by China since North Korea probably doesn't have enough computing power or hypersonic wind tunnels). Russia claims to have HCM in Zircon but Zircon is primitive... there are HCMs and there are HCMs. China and US are pursuing HCMs and HGCMs.
India talks a big game about ground testing some scramjets and achieving 10s then 20s then 120s or whatever now. Well this is still far behind what China and US has disclosed... probably underselling how much further along they are. About the same level as Indian cars/computing/chips/ insert tech product compared to US China and other global leaders i.e. big big talk.
Everyone else has basically managed to figure out MaRV and barely able to guide them reliably in the best of conditions with zero opposition effort and calling themselves a hypersonic power. There are only two real military powers on this planet now. US and China. Third place is a distant void away. I guess Japan wants to try. They have some brainpower and money I guess.
A little tangent... This news reminded me of by Liu Cixin about a tragic defensive battle between China and NATO. I should reread it.Don't worry. With China's current innovation speed, we'll have these showcased at 2035 parade.
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Will it be just for troops or it will include all the gear we're salivating to see (even if probably still under tarps)?
Probably just infrastructure reinforcement and roadworks to prepare for heavy equipments.
Literally written by someone name "Holly Chik" LOLDon't worry. With China's current innovation speed, we'll have these showcased at 2035 parade.
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