Mystery aircraft 4th August 2025: CCA vs other

[mack8]

The NWU paper indicates that its design is a variable-sweep-wing aircraft. I'm not going to speculate on its impact on its supposed all-aspect stealth, but it would at least partially explain why recent photos of this mysterious aircraft/CCA seems to have different wing configurations.

The paper diagram:
View attachment 157392

The recent sightings of this airframe:
View attachment 157393View attachment 157394View attachment 157395

The possibility of PS notwithstanding, it is possible that the aircraft in these images look "different" because its wings might be at different sweep angles. Compare the first and middle photographs for example. The rightmost image - assuming that it's the same aircraft - likely shows its wings at a minimum sweep while the leftmost image shows wings at their maximum sweep.

Again, this is just a semi-serious guess. And this all banks on the aircraft being real and not PSed in any way and the NWU paper being related to this airframe.

The first image intrigues me a lot. You can see the trailing edge seems to be W shaped, while in the second one is only V shaped. I struggle to see what else could be so prominent from that angle and distance, i don't think the engine nacelle could create that effect, they can't be that tall. Maybe this thing has folding tails as well? That first image is what got me to half-jokingly liken it to a chinese Aurora, it gives the impression of large size from among others what appears to be multiple wheels main gear, but that might just be a gear door as other pointed out.

It will be disappointing if this whole thing proves to be an elaborate PS, but my gut feeling tells me it's not, i don't think the Y-9 footage is faked nor the V trailing edge aircraft is fake (except the picture Huitong deleted, that was fake as hell), but yeah can't wait for some 100% confirmation either way.

 

[thinkerls]

For what its worth, I asked ChatGPT to geolocate those photos based on the foliage in the scenery and the fact that they were taken in China.

The top photo shows leaves of a bamboo tree (ChatGPT identified the genus as either Phyllostachys or Bambusa), which are found in southern and eastern China. Notably, Sichuan (where Chengdu is located) is one of the places where this genus of bamboo is common. I did not see Northern China (specificially Liaoning, where Shenyang is located) being listed as a probable place where these trees grow.

The bottom photo shows leaves of the broadleaf-tree type growing on trees with a dense green canopy. Being no botany expert, I dug deeper and ChatGPT was able to conclude that these trees grow in Southern/Central China and in humid subtropical climates. This does not explicity point to Sichuan but cold, arid places like Shenyang are unlikely to have this kind of tree in prominence.

So while this certainly isn't the best way to geolocate a photo, the vegetation in the photographs make it more likely that the airframe was spotted near Chengdu rather than Shenyang or Xi'an. This of course assumes that the two photos show the same airframe and that they haven't been doctored in any way.

Can't believe we're researching trees for the sake of aviation watching.

Perhaps due to a certain production capacity balance, Shenyang has to manufacture J-16, J-16D, J-15T, J-15D, J-35, J-35A, and even J-35E. Chengdu, on the other hand, only has the J-20 and J-36. Chengdu has every reason to compete for the carrier-based aircraft projects.

 

[Neurosmith]

或许是出于某种产能平衡，沈阳要生产歼-16、歼-16D、歼-15T、歼-15D、歼-35、歼-35A，甚至歼-35E。而成都只有歼-20和歼-36。成都完全有理由竞争舰载机项目。

This is assuming that the airframe is a naval carrier-based fighter rather than a CCA or for some other role. Additionally, if Shenyang had felt that it was too overwhelmed with other projects, it wouldn't have pitched the J-XD for the naval contract in the first place. The J-XD, with its twin-wheel front landing gear, is widely belived to be the choice for the 6th-generation carrier-borne fighter project. Chengdu, on the other hand, has little to no experience developing carrier-borne aircraft.

 

[Neurosmith]

The first image intrigues me a lot. You can see the trailing edge seems to be W shaped, while in the second one is only V shaped. I struggle to see what else could be so prominent from that angle and distance, i don't think the engine nacelle could create that effect, they can't be that tall. Maybe this thing has folding tails as well? That first image is what got me to half-jokingly liken it to a chinese Aurora, it gives the impression of large size from among others what appears to be multiple wheels main gear, but that might just be a gear door as other pointed out.

It will be disappointing if this whole thing proves to be an elaborate PS, but my gut feeling tells me it's not, i don't think the Y-9 footage is faked nor the V trailing edge aircraft is fake (except the picture Huitong deleted, that was fake as hell), but yeah can't wait for some 100% confirmation either way.

Images are too blurry to draw any conclusions, and any sort of subtle movement could distort the image such that the engine nacelles forms a seemingly-"W" shape rather than a "V".

I also suspect that the second image is actually PS-ed, given that the rear end of the aircraft seems to be "in focus" while the front of the aircraft is not.

We also don't know if the Y-9 footage shows the same aircraft in the first (leftmost) photo.

All in all, a lot of unknowns...better to wait for more details or imagery.

 

[mack8]

Well, it's their bread.
Nothing spectacular, just a good, balanced summary. It isn't written for China watchers, after all.

I see they prominently included the picture that was proven to be fake, so that doesn't bode well of their analytical competency. They've been duped before by various PS/CGIs of J-36/J-50.

 

[Deino]

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on TWZ article:
View attachment 157381
Ayi has said in the past he feels bad for Tyler Rogoway because it looks like ever since the Christmas surprise last year he's taken PLA watching seriously and tends to write balanced articles without much chest thumping, yet all the TWZ fans are all NAFO types who endlessly try to play down Chinese advancements much to Rogoway's annoyance.

From his comments about them being "草木皆六" I take it he thinks they're been alarmists and his opinion is it's a CCA and not another 6th gen manned fighter.

Seen as it's blowing up and TWZ has written about it, there's a good chance they will talk about it tonight on their stream complete with Shilao going onto another historical tangent about CCA, loyal wingman, the S-70 shotdown and that movie Stealth, probably worth tuning to. I'm curious if we can get any info about how many CCAs are likely to be showing up in a month.

Also:
View attachment 157384
High praises for Deino and his ability to spot PS'd photos, people reckon TWZ should get a second opinion from him before they just go with the first photo they find.

So funny this morning!

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1952642720100712930

 

[Wrought]

So funny this morning!

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1952642720100712930

Smart move on your part to choose such a memeable pfp.

 

[sabiothailand]

variable wing sweep? Inb4 the F-14 copycat comments

Sure enough, started popping up on the usual aviation subs

Don't give them ideas!

 

[GTI]

A) This is a fake, likely using a still of the J-36 for the front fuselage. I’ve been thinking this since yesterday. I’m convinced now.


B) This is a CCA, taken from the footage of it flying with a Y-9, that surfaced ~1-2 weeks ago. It is clearly not the same aircraft as (C) below, including any of that VG CATBOR stuff, which borders on nonsense IMHO.


C) If, as someone said above, this is supposedly the only real picture of “[G]J-XD3”, it would make sense because it clearly looks different to those PSed J-36 ones, like (A), that did the rounds yesterday (with the clear image quality on the trailing edges and undersides).

Am I the only one that thinks this thing looks big? I see a slight bulge that makes me think a cockpit is more likely than not (of course, could be satcom) — but mostly because judging by the front gear, the undercarriage is either comically tiny, or the aircraft is big… and what looks to be at least 2, but maybe 3 wheels in the main landing gear bogie.

 

[Tomboy]

C) If, as someone said above, this is supposedly the only real picture of “[G]J-XD3”, it would make sense because it clearly looks different to those PSed J-36 ones, like (A), that did the rounds yesterday (with the clear image quality on the trailing edges and undersides).

Am I the only one that thinks this thing looks big? I see a slight bulge that makes me think a cockpit is more likely than not (of course, could be satcom) — but mostly because judging by the front gear, the undercarriage is either comically tiny, or the aircraft is big… and what looks to be at least 2, but maybe 3 wheels in the main landing gear bogie.
View attachment 157410

Crackpot theory, what if this is the JH-XX? It was a known real project at some point in time before most people dismissed it as cancelled due to not being that relevant anymore but what if development continued after new breakthroughs allowing longer range and better stealth making it more relevant today? Triple/dual bogie landing gear if true suggests an extremely heavy aircraft.