2025 Israel - Iranian conflict

[gelgoog]

At the time of the Shah literacy in Iran was still fairly low and the country's industry was mostly undeveloped. While there were some steps to correct this, only after the revolution did this situation change for real.



North Korea inherited a lot of industry from Imperial Japan so it is quite different. North Korea used to be richer and more advanced than South Korea until like the 1970s.

 

[dirtyid]

More I evaluate the 12 days drama, the more it seems even cosmic Iranian ineptitude managed to withstand extraordinary Israeli competence. Or the benefits of just being a bigger country that's not an absolute third world shithole with barely any tech tree. Israel premptively (lbh, exquisitly) decapitated Iranian leadership, took opportunity to destroy Irianian IADs and pick off TELs with relative air supremacy... but high tempo could only be sustained a few days. Meanwhile Iran cobbled together some of their shit tier ballistics and still manage to deplete/penetrate one of the most sophisticated and layered/densest anti missile defense network in the world + US/UK doing some intercepts along a fixed/predictable geographic axis. US/western missile defense has come a long way in 30 years, but Iran merely improving missile tech to PRC 2000s level is enough to start hitting Israel, granted not accurately hitting tactically/strategically things that matter, but 20 years ago Israeli air could still technically have slapped Iran, but Iran air technically couldn't touch Israel, i.e. US+Israel sprinting missile defense is still loosing ground to Iran jogging for mediocre missiles.

If Iran had missiles with better than lol100s of meter CEP, not 50% failure rate, solid fuel that can be quickly deployed, a few machs faster, they would be cooking with actual conventional deterrence vs hopium terror bombing theatre deterrence. IMO that's basically another 5-10 years development... well for PRC anyway. IMO that's what Iran should double down on... mass missiles that can hit stuff and are survivable. If reports that Kinzhals going at mach8 can bleed entire patriot batteries vs mach5 zolfaghar/fateh/shahab, then the interceptor defense game is really doomed. Forget 20% of global Thaad in 12 days. Ultimately no amount of modern IADs is going to safe them from getting creamed by Israel with US support. Iran can't get the airforce or air defense hardware or competency to win the defense game against tier1 western C4ISR and stand off tech. The only thing they need (apart from nukes) is next gen missiles that can actually hit things that degrades Israel homefront / war making ability, and I guess some benefactor to feed them targetting for stationary targets. Like the proportional response to US hitting Fordow, Natanza, Isfahan isn't theatrics in Qatar, it's Intel fab28 in Israel... it's 10 football fields large, I don't know what that is in broad side of barn units, but a lot. Iran just needs to get there, probably on their own. Don't get me wrong, Iran absolutely got clowned on, but no regime change, and we don't know state of nuclear program. Meanwhile Israel likely needs to keep up mowing the lawn, at expedited pace to prevent Iran pouring resources into rebuilding / remassing hardware instead of failed expensive proxy play alll the while western youth increasingly pro-palestine or rather anti Israel - very bad combo.

Extrapolate that to PRC vs Indopac scenario how you will. Throw in the 1m loitering munitions polytech is alledgedly acquiring and the cruise missile gigafactory that's probably not sitting idle. Also is this the first time 815s monitored B2 in operation setting. I wonder if B2s still had luneberg lenses. Feels last few years really validates a lot of PLA concepts and revealed cards limitations US was hiding... meanwhile Gaza being normalized = PRC has excuse to go absolute heinious in a TW scenario, but that's really bad thoughts to contemplate.

 

[xyz4321]

Iran is predominantly Shia (95%), led by a Shia theocracy. Sending 'head-choppers' is just not a feasible plan of action, because it's not an unstable Sunni region that can be ideologically & demographically penetrated.

There are Shia head-choppers; plenty in Iraq.

North Korea could do it, no reason any similar sized country cannot.

NK punches above it's weight imo. Many countries (including Iran and Pakistan) use NK designs in military equipment, especially missiles, and possibly also nuclear tech.

 

[tamsen_ikard]

More I evaluate the 12 days drama, the more it seems even cosmic Iranian ineptitude managed to withstand extraordinary Israeli competence. Or the benefits of just being a bigger country that's not an absolute third world shithole with barely any tech tree. Israel premptively (lbh, exquisitly) decapitated Iranian leadership, took opportunity to destroy Irianian IADs and pick off TELs with relative air supremacy... but high tempo could only be sustained a few days. Meanwhile Iran cobbled together some of their shit tier ballistics and still manage to deplete/penetrate one of the most sophisticated and layered/densest anti missile defense network in the world + US/UK doing some intercepts along a fixed/predictable geographic axis. US/western missile defense has come a long way in 30 years, but Iran merely improving missile tech to PRC 2000s level is enough to start hitting Israel, granted not accurately hitting tactically/strategically things that matter, but 20 years ago Israeli air could still technically have slapped Iran, but Iran air technically couldn't touch Israel, i.e. US+Israel sprinting missile defense is still loosing ground to Iran jogging for mediocre missiles.

If Iran had missiles with better than lol100s of meter CEP, not 50% failure rate, solid fuel that can be quickly deployed, a few machs faster, they would be cooking with actual conventional deterrence vs hopium terror bombing theatre deterrence. IMO that's basically another 5-10 years development... well for PRC anyway. IMO that's what Iran should double down on... mass missiles that can hit stuff and are survivable. If reports that Kinzhals going at mach8 can bleed entire patriot batteries vs mach5 zolfaghar/fateh/shahab, then the interceptor defense game is really doomed. Forget 20% of global Thaad in 12 days. Ultimately no amount of modern IADs is going to safe them from getting creamed by Israel with US support. Iran can't get the airforce or air defense hardware or competency to win the defense game against tier1 western C4ISR and stand off tech. The only thing they need (apart from nukes) is next gen missiles that can actually hit things that degrades Israel homefront / war making ability, and I guess some benefactor to feed them targetting for stationary targets. Like the proportional response to US hitting Fordow, Natanza, Isfahan isn't theatrics in Qatar, it's Intel fab28 in Israel... it's 10 football fields large, I don't know what that is in broad side of barn units, but a lot. Iran just needs to get there, probably on their own. Don't get me wrong, Iran absolutely got clowned on, but no regime change, and we don't know state of nuclear program. Meanwhile Israel likely needs to keep up mowing the lawn, at expedited pace to prevent Iran pouring resources into rebuilding / remassing hardware instead of failed expensive proxy play alll the while western youth increasingly pro-palestine or rather anti Israel - very bad combo.

Extrapolate that to PRC vs Indopac scenario how you will. Throw in the 1m loitering munitions polytech is alledgedly acquiring and the cruise missile gigafactory that's probably not sitting idle. Also is this the first time 815s monitored B2 in operation setting. I wonder if B2s still had luneberg lenses. Feels last few years really validates a lot of PLA concepts and revealed cards limitations US was hiding... meanwhile Gaza being normalized = PRC has excuse to go absolute heinious in a TW scenario, but that's really bad thoughts to contemplate.

Your so called assessment lacks actual evidence to back it up. The only evidence of so called Israeli air supremacy is their own statement. No footage of Israeli jets flying in the air. Israel used standoff missiles and a lot of drones. There are a lot of so called air strikes which turn out to be local agents using anti-tank missiles and bombs. The amount mass destruction we saw in Israel due to Iranian missiles have NO equivalent footage for Israeli attack in Iran.

Moreover, your statement about iran not hitting anything strategic is also wrong. We saw iranian missiles hitting lots of Israeli hq including mossad and def ministry, we saw attack on ports and refineries, we saw actual air defense missiles getting hit.

So Iranian missiles were shown to be extremely destructive and accurate. So, the actual footage evidence suggests that israel got its asses handed to them and sought a ceasefire cause they were hurting too bad.

 

[00CuriousObserver]

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Iran receives Chinese surface-to-air missile batteries after Israel ceasefire deal

The Islamic Republic is trading oil for Chinese air defence missiles as it looks to rebuild capabilities destroyed by Israel, sources say

 

[dirtyid]

Your so called assessment lacks actual evidence to back it up. The only evidence of so called Israeli air supremacy is their own statement. No footage of Israeli jets flying in the air. Israel used standoff missiles and a lot of drones. There are a lot of so called air strikes which turn out to be local agents using anti-tank missiles and bombs. The amount mass destruction we saw in Israel due to Iranian missiles have NO equivalent footage for Israeli attack in Iran.

Moreover, your statement about iran not hitting anything strategic is also wrong. We saw iranian missiles hitting lots of Israeli hq including mossad and def ministry, we saw attack on ports and refineries, we saw actual air defense missiles getting hit.

So Iranian missiles were shown to be extremely destructive and accurate. So, the actual footage evidence suggests that israel got its asses handed to them and sought a ceasefire cause they were hurting too bad.

RELATIVE air supremacy, there's plenty of evidence Israel capitalized on a few days fairly uncontested stomping in Iran during intial chaos, that's fine to accept. The point against Israel is they could not sustain sortie tempo, so obviously they had to fixate on narrow target set and not mass arbiturary civil destruction. Yes Iran spammed missiles and managed to hit some targets, but not scale+scope that would strategically prevent Israel from continuing war (with external help - help that other US admin would probably give more readily). Iranian missile tech still not at level of full conventional deterrance. There's already reporting Israel is asking Trump to green light more attacks. Iran with better missiles would have ensured Israel wouldn't have a credible airforce left to even contemplate striking Iran again. Israel got bloodied, but it doesn't appear deterred. And my assessment is Iran is a few more years of missile development from being able to do so even if it remains a disorganized basketcase, i.e. if Iran can actually deliver it's boasted 1000 missile retaliation, where 1000 missile has low failure rate, higher penetration rate, and can take out 100s of Israeli hardware or infra that sustains Israeli air, then it would have convincingly have out postured Israel. And IMO that's 5/10 years away. And TBH there would need to be another exchange where Iran convincingly demonstrates it could basically break Israel in single retaliatory salvo that overwhelms Israeli missile defense and cripples Israeli air generation regardless of Israeli competence for that reality to settle in. By then strategically supporting Israel to degree it is now would be pointless for US planners.

 

[gelgoog]

Israel premptively (lbh, exquisitly) decapitated Iranian leadership

Israel killed a bunch of 60 and 70 year old farts. Big whoop. They just created more martyrs.
The loss of scientists is much more of an issue.

took opportunity to destroy Irianian IADs and pick off TELs with relative air supremacy... but high tempo could only be sustained a few days.

They never had air supremacy. They managed to establish some air corridors and used those to lob long range weapons.
Israel also stopped because they were taking a beating. If their little operation was going as well as they claimed you would have seen the USAF go into Iran next. And not to do performative acts like they did.

Meanwhile Iran cobbled together some of their shit tier ballistics and still manage to deplete/penetrate one of the most sophisticated and layered/densest anti missile defense network in the world + US/UK doing some intercepts along a fixed/predictable geographic axis.

Except it is not shit tier. Iran even has hypersonics. They have ballistic missiles with optical and thermal tracking, they have some with radar sensors, they can track and hit radars.

US/western missile defense has come a long way in 30 years, but Iran merely improving missile tech to PRC 2000s level is enough to start hitting Israel

It is way better than that. China did not have Beidou back then, nor did it have hypersonics or MaRVs.

granted not accurately hitting tactically/strategically things that matter, but 20 years ago Israeli air could still technically have slapped Iran, but Iran air technically couldn't touch Israel, i.e. US+Israel sprinting missile defense is still loosing ground to Iran jogging for mediocre missiles.

20 years ago the Syrian Army was still inside Lebanon.

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If Iran had missiles with better than lol100s of meter CEP, not 50% failure rate, solid fuel that can be quickly deployed, a few machs faster, they would be cooking with actual conventional deterrence vs hopium terror bombing theatre deterrence.

It is pretty hard to get accurate strikes with hypersonics at thousands of miles of distance. And not all Iranian missiles have the same accuracy. Most strikes they did were with 15 year old missiles.

mach5 zolfaghar/fateh/shahab, then the interceptor defense game is really doomed.

Fateh-2 is way faster than that.

Iran can't get the airforce or air defense hardware or competency to win the defense game against tier1 western C4ISR and stand off tech.

Good luck operating aircraft without fuel. All Iran has to do is blow up all the aviation fuel depots in the region.

The only thing they need (apart from nukes) is next gen missiles that can actually hit things that degrades Israel homefront / war making ability, and I guess some benefactor to feed them targetting for stationary targets.

Iran had to pull back because if they actually threatened Israel's existence they would have gotten themselves nuked.

Like the proportional response to US hitting Fordow, Natanza, Isfahan isn't theatrics in Qatar, it's Intel fab28 in Israel... it's 10 football fields large, I don't know what that is in broad side of barn units, but a lot. Iran just needs to get there, probably on their own.

I agree. I would have dropped several of those large liquid rockets with 2 ton warheads on Intel and Tower semiconductor..

Many countries (including Iran and Pakistan) use NK designs in military equipment, especially missiles, and possibly also nuclear tech.

NK itself got Soviet liquid missiles to reverse engineer. Does not diminish their feat but still.
Iran's solid missiles are their own technology.

 

[GulfLander]

From Qatar's AlJazeera

Rights groups are warning of another refugee crisis in the making - with the expulsion of Afghans from Iran.
Thousands of people are being forced to leave the country that became their home, after decades of war and poverty.

 

[gelgoog]

Supposedly there are 2 million unregistered, and another 2 million registered migrants from Afghanistan in Iran. As you can guess a lot of them fled into Iran after the US leaving Afghanistan. They fled the Taliban. After Israel uses a lot of these migrants as paid saboteurs in their attacks on Iran, the migrants, especially the unregistered ones, are being deported back to Afghanistan.

 

[dirtyid]

...

If not for Iranian ineptitude / Israeli competence at onset, Iran could probably have pulled off their actual boasted 500-1000+ counter salvo in a day or two, which would have overwhelmed Israeli missile defense and established new level of deterence. It doesn't matter martyres were replaceble old farts, they were the old farts who would have coordinated mechanism for retaliation, and inability to coordinate blew what could have been a convincing deterrence strike that established the realities I think many of us had in mind given what we "felt" about Iran's missile capability/strategy. Reality is Iran launched ~500 missiles, hit a few large photogenic buildings, but the missiles weren't accurate enough to remove/cripple Israeli air. If it did Israel wouldn't have opportunity to TEL hunt in subsequent days - those 500 missiles, or what made it to the ground definitely didn't blow up all the fuel / munition depots... or anything that substantially degraded Israeli air except for Israel being smaller country running sorties until it couldn't be sustained. Hence "shit tier" missiles, like they're "solid" in that they made it to Israel, but better missiles would have bled much more interceptors = more penetrations... and better missiles with better cep could have potentially dismantled israeli air. Chinese commercial sats would be blasting those images to global south and undermine US security posture. If Iran could hit fuel depots reliably then Israel would be conventionally deterred by now. Iran survived, but given what we thought their missile posture / strategy was, THEY SHOULD have, with much stronger posture after strike. The takeaway is missiles were the right strategy, even when executed under expectations. But poor execution in this case = IMO Israel managed to buy more time when time should have ran out for them if Iran executed better.