PLA strike strategies in westpac HIC

[FairAndUnbiased]

You should look at Israel - Iran missile exchange. Even with incredible missile defense, Israel still has to suffer, because there is no Air Defense that enough to protect your country from a missile barrage.

So yes, China can hit anything that US put into Philippine, but not all of them. The lesson of US vs Houthi in middle east also teach us. Even after bombarded by incredible US air strike, Houthi still can launch missiles and harass US element on the Red Sea. So, as long as Philippine and Japan with US, China have to fight against them first, before they can even touch Guam and Hawaii in a meaningful damage. At the same time, when it happen, US can target China industrial centers, shipyards, and even Chinese weapon industries. Without have to afraid that China can do a missile strike to Lockhead Martin, Northtop and Boeing at the same time.

Unless they can dock in Hong Kong harbor or tank up over Guangdong, they can't reach the bulk of China's MIC at all.

Check how far inland Chengdu, Shenyang, Wuhan and Xi'an are.

 

[kkwan18]

But F-35B can fly from anywhere with their unique take off capability. US can just build a secret F-35B base in a Japanese forest that hidden from China. They can also use street and road as a temporary forward base. And they can always build F-35B when it is destroyed, because nobody bombarded Lockhead Martin factory.

Plus, how China disturb their logistic route from US to their forward bases. If China's submarines must go through into US security web around Miyako Straight and the sea south of Philippine. With Japan, Taiwan and Philippine with US side, moving to Pacific ocean become very dangerous to any Chinese element. Just like how Houthi disturb the shipping line at the red sea. But now with anti submarine element too.

If Chinese territory was hit by US weapon on their industries, China will definitely hit back at US mainland and their industries.

 

[Brainsuker]

If Chinese territory was hit by US weapon on their industries, China will definitely hit back at US mainland and their industries.

With long range missile of course. With how many missiles? Even hundred of missiles like what Russian and Iran did to Ukraine and Israel could only do little damages. Maybe some buildings would be destroyed. But that's it. Unless both sides use nuclear.

But US can hit China from any where from Japan, Philippine and other countries around China, and China at the same time must bomb those countries into stone ages. So China will bombs those US allies more than they think about to strike US mainland. So the battlefield won't be in US mainland, but around China. It will devastate Japan, Philippine, Taiwan, and maybe Vietnam (if they foolishly join the war) but compared to China, US is basically intact. If that happen, US main objective is complete. Because anything that can disturb China economy and industry can be considered victory to them. Who care about Japan, Korea, and Philippine. They just sacrificial lambs to them.

So this come to my idea. US main weakness is their logistical route. I use the ancient Wei Qi logic for this. Remember, there are 3 steps of strategy in military warfare. From tactic, operation, to strategic level. My idea cover to strategic level only. If we portrayed China and US pivot in SCS and westpac situation, the area that east to Japan and Philippine is basically US "Territory". It is difficult for China do disturb US logistic ships that operate in Pacific Ocean. Specially when they are guarded by US Navy element. Because compared to US, China ability to reach Pacific Ocean is more or less limited. Even if they can, it is basically behind the enemy land. Their are at their own. There is too little support that China mainland can offer to support them.

To interrupt US plan to pivot China, They have to have an easy access to the Pacific ocean. Maybe from Eastern Russia mainland, or another countries that has access to the ocean without any US ally. Like Indonesia maybe, or Papua Nu Guinea. If China can build a Submarine base there, China already can limit the US "Liberty" (Wei Qi chess term) in Pacific. Thus decrease the effectiveness of their Asia pivot. As China can disturb their logistic route without any problem.

So this is the reason why US more afraid if China can get an ally in Pacific Ocean than anything else. Sometime ago I read that a small island country in the Pacific give China the access to their port. And you know, this already freak US and Australia out. Because it is basically very dangerous to their position in Pacific Ocean. So what if China can put their grip into that country, by building a military base there and protect the regime from any US and Australia attempt of "Arab Spring"? It will change the course of US' Asian pivot strategy. That's what I mean from my Wei Qi chess strategy in WestPac.

 

[vincent]

With long range missile of course. But US can hit China from any where in Japan, Philippine and other countries around China. And the battlefield won't be in US mainland, but in around China mainland. It will devastate Japan, Philippine, Taiwan and maybe Vietnam (if they join the war), but compared to China, US is more or less intact. And that war already as objective complete by US. Because anything that can disturb China economy and industry is a victory to them. Who care about Japan, Korea, and Pinoy; they're just sacrificial lambs to them.

But don't worry, the might of China military can make Japan, Korea, Philippine, and even Taiwan devastated. maybe China can even take over Taiwan. But at the same time, their economy and industry would fall into the era of cultural revolution again. While US will keep their hegemony status for way way longer period.

Maybe you should take a look at how much America’s industrial inputs came from East Asia.

 

[mellowcookie]

With long range missile of course. But US can hit China from any where in Japan, Philippine and other countries around China. And the battlefield won't be in US mainland, but in around China mainland. It will devastate Japan, Philippine, Taiwan and maybe Vietnam (if they join the war), but compared to China, US is more or less intact. And that war already as objective complete by US. Because anything that can disturb China economy and industry is a victory to them. Who care about Japan, Korea, and Pinoy; they're just sacrificial lambs to them.

But don't worry, the might of China military can make Japan, Korea, Philippine, and even Taiwan devastated. maybe China can even take over Taiwan. But at the same time, their economy and industry would fall into the era of cultural revolution again. While US will keep their hegemony status for way way longer period.

The US does not have anywhere near the amount of conventional firepower to seriously damage China's industrial output. Iran fired, what 1000 missiles at Israel, with about 150 getting through. Even though Israel got seriously damaged with billions in damage, that's barely a scratch. Israel is about the size of Beijing. The only way would be nukes, and in that case ICBMs are a good enough answer, and none of this matters anyways.

Furthermore, I think you underestimate the actual independence of Japan and South Korea. Forget about Vietnam, they are not dumb enough to side with America. They are a sovereign country and would not attack China, the worst they'd do would be to sever trade.

While Japan and South Korea allow the US to control their military, If China demonstrates their firepower hard enough in the event of an actual conflict, they'd stand down, or at least do nothing if the US bases on their territory got hit. Even though the US is technically in command of their military, they're not dumb enough to sacrifice themselves for Americans if it's clearly apparent.

The Philippines on the other hand is more of a wildcard, but they're already quite irrelevant economically and realistically cannot provide much support outside of US bases. This is the same country that had one of the highest GDPs in the Asia Pacific after WW2. Now look at them - even Vietnam is soon to outpace them.

 

[BasilicaLew]

Unless they can dock in Hong Kong harbor or tank up over Guangdong, they can't reach the bulk of China's MIC at all.

Check how far inland Chengdu, Shenyang, Wuhan and Xi'an are.

China could strike mainland US with DF-17 if they felt so inclined. or use FPV drones to do so.

 

[FriedRiceNSpice]

But at the same time, their economy and industry would fall into the era of cultural revolution again.

How many times do you need to be refuted. No, the amount of ordinance that the US can deliver cannot even make a dent in China's industry.

 

[4Tran]

The US isn't going to fire ballistic missiles at mainland China so how are they supposed to attack Chinese industry in the first place?

 

[Brainsuker]

Maybe you should take a look at how much America’s industrial inputs came from East Asia.

Yep, and that's why they want a war in East Asia. So those industrial input can return to US.

How many times do you need to be refuted. No, the amount of ordinance that the US can deliver cannot even make a dent in China's industry.

At least Shenzhen can be targeted. Also Shanghai and Hongkong. China's biggest Shipyards are in Shanghai and Liaoning. Even if they can't reach Liaoning, but they can make Shanghai into a fishing port again. Also from South Korea, they can also reach Beijing and some Manchurian area with missiles.

 

[FriedRiceNSpice]

At least Shenzhen can be targeted. Also Shanghai and Hongkong. China's biggest Shipyards are in Shanghai and Liaoning. Even if they can't reach Liaoning, but they can make Shanghai into a fishing port again. Also from South Korea, they can also reach Beijing and some Manchurian area with missiles.

It would take about 55-60,000 missiles to even strike every building in Shanghai. That's about 55-60 years of US missile production. Just to take out a single factory, about 20-30 missiles are required. And China has hundreds of thousands of factories. A single missile hitting a factory is not even enough to delay production for 8 hours.

During WW2, the allies dropped millions of tons of munitions on Germany per month, yet Germany industrial output grew every single year. Chinese industry today is 20-30 times larger than Germany industry of WW2, modern industry is about 10-20 times more resilient than WW2 era industry, and Chinese ability to rebuild using modern technology is 10-15 times more than what the Germans had available to WW2. And the US today cannot even deliver ordnance at 5% the rate at which the Allies delivered over German cities in WW2. Do some basic research before posting brain dead claims.