PLA strike strategies in westpac HIC

Sinnavuuty said:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1937469961418490276

Someone needs to tell Airpower that China, unlike Iran, has vast ISR capabilities and real-time surveillance. China’s ballistic missile strikes will be much more precise and surgical, hitting critical and strategic targets of its enemies.

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Brainsuker said:

At the same time, when it happen, US can target China industrial centers, shipyards, and even Chinese weapon industries. Without have to afraid that China can do a missile strike to Lockhead Martin, Northtop and Boeing at the same time.

When China no longer has the infrastructure to produce more missiles, US can send more and more missiles from their untouched industrial base in their mainland.

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Brainsuker said:

But F-35B can fly from anywhere with their unique take off capability. US can just build a secret F-35B base in a Japanese forest that hidden from China. They can also use street and road as a temporary forward base. And they can always build F-35B when it is destroyed, because nobody bombarded Lockhead Martin factory.

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Brainsuker said:

But F-35B can fly from anywhere with their unique take off capability. US can just build a secret F-35B base in a Japanese forest that hidden from China. They can also use street and road as a temporary forward base. And they can always build F-35B when it is destroyed, because nobody bombarded Lockhead Martin factory.

Plus, how China disturb their logistic route from US to their forward bases. If China's submarines must go through into US security web around Miyako Straight and the sea south of Philippine. With Japan, Taiwan and Philippine with US side, moving to Pacific ocean become very dangerous to any Chinese element. Just like how Houthi disturb the shipping line at the red sea. But now with anti submarine element too.

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Brainsuker said:

But F-35B can fly from anywhere with their unique take off capability. US can just build a secret F-35B base in a Japanese forest that hidden from China. They can also use street and road as a temporary forward base. And they can always build F-35B when it is destroyed, because nobody bombarded Lockhead Martin factory.

Plus, how China disturb their logistic route from US to their forward bases. If China's submarines must go through into US security web around Miyako Straight and the sea south of Philippine. With Japan, Taiwan and Philippine with US side, moving to Pacific ocean become very dangerous to any Chinese element. Just like how Houthi disturb the shipping line at the red sea. But now with anti submarine element too.

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FairAndUnbiased said:

its the opposite. A forward deployment strategy is risky because its basically geographically spreading your forces in a thin shell and you have to push logistics to the edge of the shell. You don't have geographic force concentration and your logistics lines are long and easy to disrupt. Yet because you have a limited number of bases, you don't have tactical force dispersion.

Pushing long distance logistics to so few points of failure is risky. Count the number of airbases that US+allies have near China, then count the number of airbases that China has on the east coast. It's not even close. Example: if Guam gets struck, its air power projection capability weakens. But once local supplies run out, repair/resupply becomes harder too, since damaging the air base in itself, a tactical objective, also results in it being harder to repair, a strategic objective. It snowballs. China doesn't have this problem; the PLA can push logistics to anywhere inside China easily and doesn't cross contested territory to do so.

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tamsen_ikard said:

You don't need F-35B for that. Even F-35A can fly from any decent road. Air forces always practice flying without runways using roads.

What you said about Lockmart factory is true though. China is vulnerable to hypersonic missile strikes by US and its allies on its factories. Which means in a protracted war, they need a way to hit back on CONUS.

There are several ways I can think of to achieve that.

Ultra long range Bomber fleet will be one, ideally H-20 will have that range.

If that level of range is not feasible, then the next option will be a rapid takeover of a small Pacific island using Air borne and amphib force, ALA island hopping strategy of ww2.

Another very good option is to have a large SSGN fleet which can get close to CONUS using concealment and fire their missiles.

the full proof plan is to have a large navy with a lot of carriers that can defeat US navy in open ocean and then get close to CONUS to fire off Land attack missiles.

THE Final final plan will be to have strong alliance with Mexico or carriebean island countries like Cuba or Haiti. Then China can launch attacks on CONUS with ease.

The last idea is ofcourse too difficult now. Most likely not feasible for atleast 40-50 years. But building a really powerful navy is possible

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FairAndUnbiased said:

The runway is just part of an airbase. The reason that airbases exist isn't just for the runway, it is also because they need a central location to manage fuel, weapons and command.

Are you going to store 500 AIM-120s in an apartment block, roll them around with shopping carts, fuel up 10000 L tanks from little plastic gas cans, etc? Or deliver them to the middle of a forest - how? The middle of the forest doesn't tend to have roads, and you don't want tanker and munition trucks driving off road.

You can hit their logistics with ballistic missiles. Nobody unloads anything by hand. Hit the dock cranes, and you not only disable the logistics, they can't even repair the cranes if they don't already have another crane on the island. Dock cranes don't move. You can gather AD around it, but then you can hit the transports with ballistic missiles. They gonna escort a carrier or they gonna escort a transport?

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4Tran said:

What the Israel-Iran missile exchange shows is that a limited conventional attack is unable to do significant damage to large scale infrastructure. The larger Chinese factory sites are tens of kilometers square in size, and you'd need thousands of tons of munitions to knock all of it out. China has hundreds of industrial groupings like this all over the country, and the ability to build hundreds more. Besides, even if the Americans were able to put down a thousand ballistic missiles in Philippines, what do they do after firing all of them off? And how do they protect them from Chinese attack in the first place? And how do they replenish these missile stocks in the first place once they run out? Are they going to be able to order more rare earths from Chinese companies? The fact of the matter is that a protracted war heavily favors the side with greater industry and more robust supply chains. The US is not the favored side.


F-35Bs can theoretically be plopped anywhere. But as a practical measure, they need to have special environmentally controlled hangars to maintain its RAM coating. Without such facilities, it's impractical to field F-35s. Right now, the Americans feel that placing such planes in the First Island Chain makes them too vulnerable to Chinese missiles so Guam is as close as any of their bases get. And China doesn't have to attack any American factories to disrupt military production: they already have a stranglehold on all sorts of critical materials and without these materials, it's impossible to build any advanced equipment.

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tamsen_ikard said:

Another very good option is to have a large SSGN fleet which can get close to CONUS using concealment and fire their missiles.

the full proof plan is to have a large navy with a lot of carriers that can defeat US navy in open ocean and then get close to CONUS to fire off Land attack missiles.

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tamsen_ikard said:

What you said about Lockmart factory is true though. China is vulnerable to hypersonic missile strikes by US and its allies on its factories.

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vincent said:

Professionals talk logistics.

Six German Typhoons required a logistic tail of 200 personnel, three tankers and one transport for an exercise. F-35 during wartime condition will require far more support. Where will your spares, fuels, munitions, food for the people come from?

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The Luftwaffe will arrive Down Under in mid-August, with more than 200 personnel, six Eurofighter Typhoons, three A330 multi-role tanker transports and an A400M transport aircraft, the Australian Department of Defence said in

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.

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tonyget said:

Forward deployment has pros and cons. The advantage is that your homeland is relatively safe，immune from enemy attack；the disadvantage is that， it cannot sustain on it's own without constant supply from homeland，and the supply routue is vulnerable to enemy attack and cutoff

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