2025 Israel - Iranian conflict

[iewgnem]

Yeah of course. War is about objectives. Israel made it clear they expected to surrender in 2 weeks and they made it.

What was Israel's objective?
Nuclear talks? They don't even know if they damaged Fordow let alone if Iran kept everything inside despite weeks of warning, and now IAEA will never foot in Iran and it has a clear path to actual nukes. Was that the objective?
Iranian missiles? Yeah that's going great, we're at 5th wave of Iranian missile strike since Trump's latest tweet BTW
Regime change? Iranians are more unified around their government than ever now, including former liberals, what did Israel think would happen when they launched an unprovoked attack? Or was that the objective
Assassinate people? Well Iran killed people in Israel too, but sure I get western culture consider killing to be the only point of war.

If the ceasefire sticks, which is a big if, Israel would have lost all objectives and ended in a far worse state than it began, while Iran the opposite

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

It's over now and Trump will take a victory lap, thanking everyone for paying attention to his posts.

But the consequences from this war are far from over.

• Iran will rush for the bomb. I highly doubt their enrichment capability have been "totally destroyed."
• Iran will focus on upgrading their Air Force and Air Defense. They've seen the folly of their pride and will probably be in Russia and/or China looking to buy gears. Iran might become the second operator of Su-57 and maybe the J-35. They have money to splash.

Israel and US will come off worse off from all this. They've pushed Iran into this and either have to keep bombing Iran perpetually to keep their air space open or they will just watch as Iran starts flying Su-35, Su-57s and J-10s, J-35s, while being protected by better Air defense.

If Iran doesn't take modernization seriously and only focus on propping up terrorist proxies, then they are more idiotic than I had assumed. Those proxies they spent decades building all stayed on the sidelines fearfully. The IRGC should be disbanded in my opinion.

From rumors, many officers and veterans of the regular army and air force turned out to be traitors and forward observers. The IRGC on the other hand was not infiltrated. I wouldn't be surprised if it turned out the other way around: the IRGC assumes control over the regular forces.

 

[AlexYe]

Israel evidently would rather surrender than be destroyed.

If israel ever got pushed to the brink of surrender or destruction, they would nuke everyone in the region.

what's stopping them now?

The exact same thing that stopped them before, Naivety (West plays by rules, we can do obama deal again) and Political willpower to do it secretly and just announce it when its done(Also the iranian reformist leaders)

 

[tokenanalyst]

And these Arabs cowards who think they are safe because they are "friend" with the US, THEY ARE NEXT, the Israelis are in Lebensraum campaign, they want to expand into Egypt, Lebanon, Syria, Jordan and even Saudi Territory, is not just Gaza and the West Bank. Iran is the last opposition in the Middle East puzzle

And what really bothers me is that Iran is Shia and they are Persians, they far away from Israel expansion plans. Why is Iran job to fight for the Palestinians, Sunni Arabs and fight an expansionist power who is more of a threat to these Arabs territory instead of its own? What is even the point, if Arabs and Sunnies are not willing to defend themselves? in fact they defend this expansionist power.

 

[lube]

Israel evidently would rather surrender than be destroyed.
Or are we memory holing "unconditional surrender", "Iran must make a deal", or "regime change"?

Israel went into it with Iran about to let IAEA inspectors into their new undisclosed facilities, now IAEA will never set foot in Iran.
The war started with decades of work formenting dissent and building spy networks inside Iran, now Iran is more unified than ever and Israel burned their network to kill a few guys.
The war started with Israel having the illusion of safety, now Isarel and its people will always know they can be bombed if they misbehave.
Israeli settlers will always know moving to Isarel means going through this again at Bibi's whim.

Oh and Iran will probably actually get a nuke now, what's stopping them now?

Never underestimate Iran's ability to back down and dither on decisions until its too late.

The rational thing is to lie, and build a nuke stockpile as fast as possible, but they might choose the worst option, slow-walk it again and getting nowhere before being bombed again. And they might be in an even worse starting position than pre-surprise attack.

 

[TPenglake]

10-15 missiles were fired at Israel, one made through to Beersheba, where somewhere around 4-12 Israelis were killed depending on which source you look at.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1937371652091695448

Iran has announced they will now abide by the ceasefire, although Israelis consider the barrage to have been a ceasefire breach and want revenge for the slain Israeli settlers.

 

[tankphobia]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1937207817397486056

Fast backtrack from Medvedev after yesterday subtly implying that Russia will give nukes to Iran.

 

[tamsen_ikard]

And what really bothers me is that Iran is Shia and they are Persians, they far away from Israel expansion plans. Why is Iran job to fight for the Palestinians, Sunni Arabs and fight an expansionist power who is more of a threat to these Arabs territory instead of its own? What is even the point, if Arabs and Sunnies are not willing to defend themselves? in fact they defend this expansionist power.

The answer to that question is Jerusalem, Islam's 3rd holiest site. Muslims fought for centuries during the crusades for this and won. They will fight again and again until either they are destroyed or they recapture it.

You cannot say Arabs are not fighting Israel. Hamas and Hezbollah have made huge sacrifices and they are Arabs. Yes, Arab rulers of states around Israel are compromised and they have an iron grip on the country so they are not fighting Israel. But, the moment a Muslim Brotherhood or non-American stooge govt comes to power in any of the Arab states like Egypt or Saudi Arabia, they will start fighting Israel once again.

 

[pbd456]

Will Iran pivot to go all in with chinese military gear after this episode?

 

[iewgnem]

If israel ever got pushed to the brink of surrender or destruction, they would nuke everyone in the region.

The exact same thing that stopped them before, Naivety (West plays by rules, we can do obama deal again) and Political willpower to do it secretly and just announce it when its done(Also the iranian reformist leaders)

Israel just saw itself bombed daily and settlers fleeing en-mass over the last 2 weeks, how many countries in the world would call a unilateral ceasefire under this condition?

Iran might be naive before, but at this point it's extremely naive to think Iran will still be naive.