2025 Israel - Iranian conflict

AlexYe said:

If israel ever got pushed to the brink of surrender or destruction, they would nuke everyone in the region.

The exact same thing that stopped them before, Naivety (West plays by rules, we can do obama deal again) and Political willpower to do it secretly and just announce it when its done(Also the iranian reformist leaders)

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Anyone with any knowledge about Nukes should know, 70 nukes that Israel has is nothing compared to a country the size of Iran. Moreover, those nukes are fission bombs as Israel never developed Thermonuclear weapons.

Even if Israel launches its Nukes, Iran can use dirty Bombs to irradiate Israel for good. Sure, more people will die in Iran but they can take Israel with them.

Israel's nukes do not cower anyone. Yes, their backer the US and west does, but not Israel.

tamsen_ikard said:

But, the moment a Muslim Brotherhood or non-American stooge govt comes to power in any of the Arab states like Egypt or Saudi Arabia,

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And thats why these countries have bases that will never let it happen

pbd456 said:

Will Iran pivot to go all in with chinese military gear after this episode?

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I hope so,

iewgnem said:

Israel just saw itself bombed daily and settlers fleeing en-mass over the last 2 weeks, how many countries in the world would call a unilateral ceasefire under this condition?

Iran might be naive before, but at this point it's extremely naive to think Iran will still be naive.

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The naivety I am referring to is the 'we will abide by the rules if west does too' that, and I hope they can pivot away from 2015 era thinking and realise world has changed, if the reformists stay in control after whenever the next elections are then yeah still stay 'naive'
Militarily I hope they have learned that they cant rely on missiles alone, doing launches is harder when air-space is compromised.
Even if they have 100 launchers at any point to launch its harder to do now with israel fighters patrolling the border areas, Gotta invest in SOME AD type of thing,

tamsen_ikard said:

Anyone with any knowledge about Nukes should know, 70 nukes that Israel has is nothing compared to a country the size of Iran. Moreover, those nukes are fission bombs as Israel never developed Thermonuclear weapons.

Even if Israel launches its Nukes, Iran can use dirty Bombs to irradiate Israel for good. Sure, more people will die in Iran but they can take Israel with them.

Israel's nukes do not cower anyone. Yes, their backer the US and west does, but not Israel.

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I dont mean they will nuke iran with 70. they might nuke tehran etc yeah but if situation ever reached that point that they are being militarily defeated/surrender (which i dont see happening with nato support behind it, but lets say it does) , they will nuke iraq/syria/libya all 'fair' targets to them, it be enough to cause massive indirect damage all over earth, if its Netanyahu in power at the time, he is has enough will to do it too.

TLDR: iran needs a netanyahu/putin type guy to make decisions and get the hard things done.

iewgnem said:

What was Israel's objective?
Nuclear talks? They don't even know if they damaged Fordow let alone if Iran kept everything inside despite weeks of warning, and now IAEA will never foot in Iran and it has a clear path to actual nukes. Was that the objective?
Iranian missiles? Yeah that's going great, we're at 5th wave of Iranian missile strike since Trump's latest tweet BTW
Regime change? Iranians are more unified around their government than ever now, including former liberals, what did Israel think would happen when they launched an unprovoked attack? Or was that the objective
Assassinate people? Well Iran killed people in Israel too, but sure I get western culture consider killing to be the only point of war.

If the ceasefire sticks, which is a big if, Israel would have lost all objectives and ended in a far worse state than it began, while Iran the opposite

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My point was, if you plan to surrender in 2 weeks and you do surrender in 2 weeks, yeah you won. Just wanted to make a point based on what your said, shouldn't have linked Israel with this.

Israel did say it expected the war to last for about 2 weeks, and if the ceasefire holds, it is one of its expectations fulfilled. This is one thing that points to that things may have not evolved out of what Israel has planned and prepared for. Yeah you can say this is Israel achieving one of its objectives of surrendering within 2 weeks. Just a choice of wording.

I hardly see how Israel's in a far worse situation than before the war when compared to Iran. Iran did have their leadership killed and weapon systems destroyed, in large numbers, and has shown to the world how incompetent their AD and counter-intelligence are. Even if we count in the censorship, Israel's damage is, in terms of order of magnitude, far less than "devastating." The way Iran can meaningfully inflict damage on Israel is to prove that it's not a safe place to invest and live in, harming its economy and manpower. By accepting a ceasefire that doesn't contradict Israel's plan it announced at the beginning of the conflict, Iran helps Israel to contain the damage to its sense of security. To investors, residents and potential immigrants, Israel has a security risk, but it's something under control and can be put into calculation, versus something completely unmanageable, because when Israel says it's 2 weeks, it's actually 2 weeks.

Also, not saying Israel is winning. Being able to keep things not getting out of plan does not mean the plan itself is wise. We've all seen many times some party has a war totally under control and still loses it.

vidpicurl said:

My point was, if you plan to surrender in 2 weeks and you do surrender in 2 weeks, yeah you won. Just wanted to make a point based on what your said, shouldn't have linked Israel with this.

Israel did say it expected the war to last for about 2 weeks, and if the ceasefire holds, it is one of its expectations fulfilled. This is one thing that points to that things may have not evolved out of what Israel has planned and prepared for. Yeah you can say this is Israel achieving one of its objectives of surrendering within 2 weeks. Just a choice of wording.

I hardly see how Israel's in a far worse situation than before the war when compared to Iran. Iran did have their leadership killed and weapon systems destroyed, in large numbers. Even if we count in the censorship, Israel's damage is, in terms of order of magnitude, far less than "devastating." The way Iran can meaningfully inflict damage on Israel is to prove that it's not a safe place to invest and live in, harming its economy and manpower. By accepting a ceasefire that doesn't contradict Israel's plan it announced at the beginning of the conflict, Iran helps Israel to contain the damage to its sense of security. To investors, residents and potential immigrants, Israel has a security risk, but it's something under control and can be put into calculation, versus something completely unmanageable, because when Israel says it's 2 weeks, it's actually 2 weeks.

Also, not saying Israel is winning. Being able to keep things not getting out of plan does not mean the plan itself is wise. We've all seen many times some party has a war totally under control and still loses it.

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What exactly have we seen destroyed in Iran compared to Israel? Israel says they destroyed 40% of Iran's missiles? Where is the evidence for that? Or are we just taking things in face value when it comes to Israel?

The amount of footage of Missiles hitting Israel and causing mass devestation is far more than Israeli Mossad agents launching drones destroying one or two apartments.

Once all the propaganda is filtered out, we can do an honest assesment of who lost more. Iranian missiles hit massive amounts Israeli military, industrial and economic infrastracture. What Israel did is far less than that.

vidpicurl said:

My point was, if you plan to surrender in 2 weeks and you do surrender in 2 weeks, yeah you won.

Israel did say it expected the war to last for about 2 weeks, and if the ceasefire holds, it is one of its expectations fulfilled. This is one thing that points to that things may have not evolved out of what Israel has planned and prepared for. Yeah you can say this is Israel achieving one of its objectives of surrendering within 2 weeks. Just a choice of wording.

I hardly see how Israel's in a far worse situation than before the war when compared to Iran. Iran did have their leadership killed and weapon systems destroyed, in large numbers. Even if we count in the censorship, Israel's damage is, in terms of order of magnitude, far less than "devastating." The way Iran can meaningfully inflict damage on Israel is to prove that it's not a safe place to invest and live in, harming its economy and manpower. By accepting a ceasefire that doesn't contradict Israel's plan it announced at the beginning of the conflict, Iran helps Israel to contain the damage to its sense of security. To investors, residents and potential immigrants, Israel has a security risk, but it's something under control and can be put into calculation, versus something completely unmanageable, because when Israel says it's 2 weeks, it's actually 2 weeks.

Also, not saying Israel is winning. Being able to keep things not getting out of plan does not mean the plan itself is wise. We've all seen many times some party has a war totally under control and still loses it.

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This is the problem with western culture, their understanding of war can't seem to evolve beyond killing. Some countries consider ultimate victory to be those won without fighting, other countries consider surrender a win so long as they killed people, some countries are civilized, some countries aren't.

The death of a few replaceable individuals is just cost of war, the purpose of war isn't to kill or not lose people, it's to achieve your objectives, Israel's objectives is to weaken Iran militarily and politically, both failed spectacularly, while Iran's objective is to survive and extract cost on Israel that will deter them from trying again, they succeeded at both. The fact that Iran has much more leeway to pursue nuclear weapons is a bonus.

Lastly you might be surprised at how many countries in the world has the ability to set the goal to lose a war in 2 weeks and successful lose that war in 2 weeks.

Now that ceasefire is in effect, Israel will have enough time/resource to regroup and resupply. Can the same be said for Iran. Will daddy Putin come to their aids to restock their ADs?

Kich said:

Iran and Israel might have a round 2 maybe a few years later after Iran has upgrade their military and it's pushing towards the bomb

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Technically they already can make few bombs from that 400Kg 60% HEU.
That 90% threshold is just to make the explosive device smaller, heck you can even make one at 20% albeit the size will be huge and not really feasible for their missiles.

Interesting times ahead

Trump waited until after Iran bombed Israel to post this btw, doesn't look like he's talking to Iran does it.

Also

The ceasefire between Israel and Iran is permanent and will "last forever," Trump said in a conversation with NBC News.

Asked if the war was completely over, the US president replied: "Yes. I don't believe they'll ever shoot at each other again."

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That's one way to say "we learned our lesson"

talonn said:

Now that ceasefire is in effect, Israel will have enough time/resource to regroup and resupply. Can the same be said for Iran. Will daddy Putin come to their aids to restock their ADs?

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Let's just say Iran is fully within their rights to spend the money they made selling oil.

tamsen_ikard said:

What exactly have we seen destroyed in Iran compared to Israel? Israel says they destroyed 40% of Iran's missiles? Where is the evidence for that? Or are we just taking things in face value when it comes to Israel?

The amount of footage of Missiles hitting Israel and causing mass devestation is far more than Israeli Mossad agents launching drones destroying one or two apartments.

Once all the propaganda is filtered out, we can do an honest assesment of who lost more. Iranian missiles hit massive amounts Israeli military, industrial and economic infrastracture. What Israel did is far less than that.

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Iran definitely needed to drag this on for a month or two.

Doesn't matter if they launch one or two missile a day and only 1 in 10 hit something, but the amount of attritional economic and political damage would be hard to undo, since Israel is a hi-tech, wealthy, knowledge economy.

But they chose ceasefire after 12 days.