2025 Israel - Iranian conflict

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PLAwatcher12

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vidpicurl

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I remember at the start Israel claimed that they expected the war to be approximately 2 weeks. And now, if the ceasefire actually holds (I'd assume so given how Iran has been acting), as Trump emphasizes, it's a 12-day war, a bit shorter than 2 weeks. Maybe more missiles penetrated through Israel's AD than it expected, maybe it's still within its expectation, we don't know that for sure, but the damage isn't substantial in terms of war if things stop now. I'd say this war largely didn't get out of the expectation of Israel. About the 2-week claim, Iran doesn't even try to defy Israel's prediction even when they made it so concrete and logically deniable. This is just another humiliating thing to Iran.
 
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jiajia99

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tamsen_ikard said:
Israel has severely weakened itself as well. Iran has severely damaged Israel's military, industrial and economic assets. Their planes are depleted too. Their long range munitions are also depleted. The current US doesn't have the industrial capacity to supply them quickly.

I think Israel will take a break as well. Focus on Gaza perhaps
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Well since Israel kept on screwing up every attempts for a cease fire to take place, just because they want one, doesn’t mean they will get one
 
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PLAwatcher12

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iewgnem said:
I remember at the start Israel claimed that they expected the war to be approximately 2 weeks. And now, if the ceasefire actually holds (I'd assume so given how Iran has been acting), as Trump emphasizes, it's a 12-day war, a bit shorter than 2 weeks. Maybe more missiles penetrated through Israel's AD than it expected, maybe it's still within its expectation, we don't know that for sure, but the damage isn't substantial in terms of war if things stop now. I'd say this war largely didn't get out of the expectation of Israel. About the 2-week claim, Iran doesn't even try to defy Israel's prediction even when they made it so concrete and logically deniable. This is just another humiliating thing to Iran.
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A lot more missiles got through than Israel is saying and there is more damage than we have seen, Isreal won’t say the real number since fog of war and Isreal has been in a media blackout so we haven’t seen most of the damage im guessing
iewgnem said:
I plan to surrender in 2 weeks, I won because I surrendered right on time at 2 weeks mark?
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2 weeks was how long they planned for and how long their AD missiles could last without needing to prioritize what to hit not how long they would surrender in. Isreal would rather be destroyed than surrender
 
FairAndUnbiased

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TPenglake said:
Isn't that kind of an apples-oranges thing? Ukraine is a backwater that never had regional ambitions and is merely fighting for its survival. Iran wanted to be one of the ME's regional powers.

With respect to the current topic now, Trump's ceasefire may or may not hold, but with respect to the situation thus far, here's my two cents. I don't think there's any way to argue otherwise, these past two years have been a strategic disaster for Iran. The short version is simply that the Axis of Resistance has been completely dismantled. The immediate consequence of which is that unfortunately, unless Ben Gvir's heart suddenly grows Grinch Christmas style, the Palestinian people will have to bear whatever revenge the Israelis are in the mood for. With three years to go in the Trump presidency, it likely won't be pretty for them.

However, the IRI despite its defeats in the war has thus far managed to avoid regime change and kept its nuclear program intact, they are winning on that front. With their regional empire in tatters, they can now focus inwards. A certain country has the ability to reap all the benefits by taking advantage of Iran's current weakend state and making it a satellite within the Middle East. But as long as Iran gets to work on finally building nukes rather than tiptoeing around the issue in hope for sanctions relief and create a somewhat competent ground army now that the need to rely on militias is gone, they can be a valuable satellite.
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It is indeed possible that Gaza will be completely displaced or eliminated in a cleanup similar in style to the clearing of the Warsaw ghetto, as all resistance has been slowly cut off from aid paths and political backing.
 
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iewgnem

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PLAwatcher12 said:
A lot more missiles got through than Israel is saying and there is more damage than we have seen, Isreal won’t say the real number since fog of war and Isreal has been in a media blackout so we haven’t seen most of the damage im guessing

2 weeks was how long they planned for and how long their AD missiles could last without needing to prioritize what to hit not how long they would surrender in. Isreal would rather be destroyed than surrender
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Israel evidently would rather surrender than be destroyed.
Or are we memory holing "unconditional surrender", "Iran must make a deal", or "regime change"?

Israel went into it with Iran about to let IAEA inspectors into their new undisclosed facilities, now IAEA will never set foot in Iran.
The war started with decades of work formenting dissent and building spy networks inside Iran, now Iran is more unified than ever and Israel burned their network to kill a few guys.
The war started with Israel having the illusion of safety, now Isarel and its people will always know they can be bombed if they misbehave.
Israeli settlers will always know moving to Isarel means going through this again at Bibi's whim.

Oh and Iran will probably actually get a nuke now, what's stopping them now?
 
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