2025 Israel - Iranian conflict

[TK3600]

It's always the same thing. Conflict starts, huge fog of war, intense misinformation, war propaganda, etc. The same people as always start drawing conclusions and not even 96h has passed. ''the future of warfare is clearly going to be like this'', ''it's incredible that this happened''... you don't even know what's actually happening. i have been following most of the 'osint' guys on twitter/telegram for the last 96h and i couldn't say anything about the state of the iranian missile arsenal, about the state of the iranian command.

''Air defense'' has been active for the last hours in tehran, israel is clearly trying to gain air dominance over iran (not overly difficult considering that iran air force is basically old F-14+domestic IADS).

The other thing is about the state of the iranian nuclear program, are underground facilites still operating? we don't know yet.

Countries tend to be very resilient, even more if you are attacking from that far and with so 'few' aircraft, yes, you can destoy most of the static facilities, after that, there is not much you can do from the air if there is not a ground force backing you up.

Iran is going to eat a lot of damage, we all know it... but they can do a lot of damage too... and after suffering damage and dealing damage...

they may have 2000+ ballistic missiles that can reach israel... and? israel can recieve damage too...

in the first 12h of the israeli attack on iran, everyone was saying... iran is over, they can't even retaliate, and they did, and everyone was again like ''we are so back''... and it's not like that!

I think the nuclear facility is just an excuse, the real goal is to decapitate Iranian hardliners. The political damage will ensure remaining leadership cease to be a threat. After that anything are just bonus. I think Israel has completed their main goal, and anything else are just convenient freebies.

Despite the attack exchange, I think Israel comes out on top is fighting stop. I cannot see what Iran can do in the mean time to change the outcome.

 

[tamsen_ikard]

When I come here and read people's posts I feel like Iran is finished, Israel is bombing the shit out of Iran, Iranian regime about to fall.

Then I go to twitter and all I see is Iranian missiles penetrating and destroying israel again and again. Israelis in panic, commentators saying Israel made a blunder.

What is the disconnect here? Is this forum that much pro-israel and pro-west? In the Russia thread on the other hand, its all about Russian triamphulism, how Ukraine is finished.

Then you go to misc news threads and it seems as the west is about to fall, US is finished.

I just don't understand what people think here. That US and Israel is invincible? Iran completely powerless and yet US about to fall apart?

 

[iewgnem]

I think the nuclear facility is just an excuse, the real goal is to decapitate Iranian hardliners. The political damage will ensure remaining leadership cease to be a threat. After that anything are just bonus. I think Israel has completed their main goal, and anything else are just convenient freebies.

Despite the attack exchange, I think Israel comes out on top is fighting stop. I cannot see what Iran can do in the mean time to change the outcome.

Unprovoked attack tend to turn everyone into a hardliner.

 

[Antey1]

My opinion here is that Iranian situation is grim, i must say. I'm fearing that the US is relying on israel to do the initial attack, degrading iranian IADS and air force and, after it is done, they will intervene destroying underground facilities with B-2 bombers. Americans don't like to suffer casualties, we all know that.

Countering the US is very difficult, we all know it, you (a medium sized country with a third world economy) have (Deployed and ready to launch) nuclear weapons or you can't counter them.

In this situation they can destroy everything and then leave... it's difficult...

i hope they don't get involved.

the real goal is to decapitate Iranian hardliners

Is it? are the hardliners only in the high command? is the rest of the irgc soft and are waiting for the ''bad guys'' to die to start a revolution and surrender? i don't know, i think not.

In war, no soldier is indispensable, everyone can be replaced.

 

[tamsen_ikard]

I think the nuclear facility is just an excuse, the real goal is to decapitate Iranian hardliners. The political damage will ensure remaining leadership cease to be a threat. After that anything are just bonus. I think Israel has completed their main goal, and anything else are just convenient freebies.

Despite the attack exchange, I think Israel comes out on top is fighting stop. I cannot see what Iran can do in the mean time to change the outcome.

I don't understand, Current islamic govt and IRGC is ruling for 55 years. There is probably several million govt employees and force personnel. They have been vetting and promoting loyalists for 55 years and you think killing a few top leaders is gonna kill all the hardliners? what about the 10 guys down the next level? What about the 100 guy down the other next level?

You guys are delusional if you think there is anyone in Iranian govt that is not a hardliner. Everyone is a hardliner. Even if Ayatollah is killed, there is like 100 extremely hardline islamist Ayatollah's willing to take over as the new supreme leader.

Its like saying killing off CMC and standing comittee is going to lead to pro-west liberals coming to power in CCP.

 

[Antey1]

Iran's biggest threat is internal security, Israel is obviously unable to damage underground facilities designed for this exact scenario, at least without US help which they're requesting, which means so long as Iran's internal security is maintained it can rebuild and rearm. It also means Israel's priority will turn to infiltrating those underground facilities.

US and Israel spent decades building dissent inside Iran, they burned it all by launching an unprovoked attack without even bothering with casus beli, this is a big gift to Iranian internal unity, which is at end of the day the most critical element of this kind of war.

IMO Iran's objective should be to drag this war out while fixing their internal security problem, plus secure as much help as possible from Russia and China, putting down their pride when doing so. Iran won't be able to win a symmetrical war with US backed Israel regardless how much they invested in IADS or airforce, but if they maintain internal unity, which Israel has helped the massively with, they can outlast Israel in the grand global and historical context.

Exactly, i'm thinking that irans strategy is A) resist, even if casualties are horrendous and even if they have to replace most of the high command. B) take control of the streets, deploy all forces, create a sense of national pride, homeland defense, etc.

 

[enroger]

When I come here and read people's posts I feel like Iran is finished, Israel is bombing the shit out of Iran, Iranian regime about to fall.

Then I go to twitter and all I see is Iranian missiles penetrating and destroying israel again and again. Israelis in panic, commentators saying Israel made a blunder.

What is the disconnect here? Is this forum that much pro-israel and pro-west? In the Russia thread on the other hand, its all about Russian triamphulism, how Ukraine is finished.

Then you go to misc news threads and it seems as the west is about to fall, US is finished.

I just don't understand what people think here. That US and Israel is invincible? Iran completely powerless and yet US about to fall apart?

What I want to see is massive attack on Israeli high value targets, so far we can only count a few worthwhile hits. Twitter posts is just recycling old clips over and over again.

Where is the 2000 salvo we're promised? Either Iran is incapable of it or they're so cucked they still refuse to use it hoping for negotiation

 

[SlothmanAllen]

I really don’t think the US wants to get involved in this conflict. On top of that, I believe the Trump administration is so incompetent it likely doesn’t have the ability to exert any control or sway the outcome.

Outside of that, I think Iran has suffered some serious damage to its prestige and role within in the region. Various commentators and subject matter experts believed that any Israeli attack on Iran would see a brutal counter strike comprising of Irans “vast” aresenal of missiles and proxy forces. So far, the response from Iran has been tepid based on the pre Israeli strike understanding of Iran’s capabilities.

 

[Randomuser]

I think one of the issues in Iran is not whether they are a hardliner or reformist. It's that they do not understand how urgent the situation has gotten. There are spies and traitors everywhere. They think if things get too bad we can always compromise or even surrender. Can fight another day.

Israel wants you dead. Even if you surrender it's not enough for them. You will not be spared. There is no true fallback plan especially when they smell weakness. That's just gonna make them wanna finish the job asap.

 

[tamsen_ikard]

What I want to see is massive attack on Israeli high value targets, so far we can only count two (refinery and powerplant) worthwhile hits. Twitter posts is just recycling old clips over and over again.

Where is the 2000 salvo we're promised? Either Iran is incapable of it or they're so cucked they still refuse to use it hoping for negotiation

We have seen hits on Israeli defense ministry, numerous AD systems, University labs, Industrial factories. I am sure there were numerous attacks on military baracks and air bases as well. What other high valued targets is missing?

Iran cannot launch 2000 missiles when their whole stockpile is like 4-5000 probably. They need to think about contingencies such as US joining. If US joins, Iran will right away start hitting all the US bases in the middle east. It will probably close off hormuz, which will also need missiles. The missiles are their trump card, they cannot use all of them that easily and become sitting ducks.