Chinese semiconductor thread II

manqiangrexue

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
LanceD23 said:
I wonder if China should ban mainland companies from using TSMC at taiwan.
SMIC 's profit dropping alot because TSMC is waging a price war at 7nm/14nm . That's TSMC strategy to counter China's mature chip price war. By banning SMIC can charge higher price at 7nm, 14nm domestically.
Click to expand...
We can do some subsidies. No way they have deep enough pockets to play that game with China.
 
G

GiantPanda

Junior Member
Registered Member
LanceD23 said:
I wonder if China should ban mainland companies from using TSMC at taiwan.
SMIC 's profit dropping alot because TSMC is waging a price war at 7nm/14nm . That's TSMC strategy to counter China's mature chip price war. By banning SMIC can charge higher price at 7nm, 14nm domestically.
Click to expand...

No, SMIC is pretty much maxed out with a large chunk of capacity alloted to Huawei. Cheaper Taiwanese prices (not just TSMC) benefits other Chinese companies needing chips. Once Huawei is up and running with with PXW, Swaysure and other fab subsidiaries (supported by SiCarrier and other equipment subsidiaries) then maybe we'll have enough excess capacity that China can force companies to use SMIC, HH, etc.

But to be honest, I don't see it:

1. Chinese companies know that they need to diversify to local vendors if they have a choice, it is finding local capacity;

2. DeepSeek have created a boom where everyone in China now sees a pathway to AI and are jumping in with both feet. I don't see a lot of excess capacity in China for years.

You would only see excess capacity in Chinese fabs when Chinese chipmakers pumping out well over 50% of the global total (basically China's share of the overall market.) We are a long way from there.
 
sunnymaxi

sunnymaxi

Major
Registered Member
GiantPanda said:
No, SMIC is pretty much maxed out with a large chunk of capacity alloted to Huawei. Cheaper Taiwanese prices (not just TSMC) benefits other Chinese companies needing chips. Once Huawei is up and running with with PXW, Swaysure and other fab subsidiaries (supported by SiCarrier and other equipment subsidiaries) then maybe we'll have enough excess capacity that China can force companies to use SMIC, HH, etc.

But to be honest, I don't see it:

1. Chinese companies know that they need to diversify to local vendors if they have a choice, it is finding local capacity;

2. DeepSeek have created a boom where everyone in China now sees a pathway to AI and are jumping in with both feet. I don't see a lot of excess capacity in China for years.

You would only see excess capacity in Chinese fabs when Chinese chipmakers pumping out well over 50% of the global total (basically China's share of the overall market.) We are a long way from there.
Click to expand...
Huawei largest fab coming online next year..
 
FriedRiceNSpice

FriedRiceNSpice

Captain
manqiangrexue said:
This is an abnormal time, though. SMIC has constant pressure to move into 5nm, 3nm, 2nm. It's not in danger of getting lazy.
Click to expand...
Subsidies solve that problem, with the added benefit of both contributing to while still incentivizing SMIC's efforts to improve yields/efficiency. Offer direct subsidies to both SMIC and domestic companies that fab their chips with SMIC.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top