What?
PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency
- Thread starter pugachev_diver
- Start date
Does anyone have the reaction on TW social to what just happened in Pak/India?
In the past it was mentioned by members (myself included) that Mirage is basically the equivalent to J-10 in the ROC/PLAAF Orbat, but unfortunately for TW, PL-15 is outranging MICA and J-10C probably has a better radar.
If J-10C really did cause this disaster for India's Rafales, then Mirage-2K is basically useless.
In the past it was mentioned by members (myself included) that Mirage is basically the equivalent to J-10 in the ROC/PLAAF Orbat, but unfortunately for TW, PL-15 is outranging MICA and J-10C probably has a better radar.
If J-10C really did cause this disaster for India's Rafales, then Mirage-2K is basically useless.
All of Taiwan's jets are outclassed by J-10c including f-16 and fck-ching kuo and of course mirage. Taiwan's f-16 are super old. Upgrades do not make them as good as a new production.
Taiwan has absolutely no chance in the air. Their only hope is asymmetric warfare with patriot batteries just like ukraine.
and the best chance the us has at preventing complete pla air superiorityk is using f-35s in okinawa and korea. ultimately, the fate of the island rests on whether the ROK and Japan are willing to enter a protracted war with China over US regional interests.
In retrospect China needs to slow down fighter aircraft development and divert the funding to boosting birthrate, which is of a much bigger concern near term. I don’t think air dominance is much of a problem even if CHAD enters service by 2045…
lcloo
Captain
Mirage 2000 is very old jet, it first flew in 1978, introduced to French airfore in 1984, and the last jet was built in 2007.
Taiwanese Mirage 2000s were delivered from May 1997 to November 1998, so that mean their jets are 27-28 years old. They have not been upgraded so their eletronics are obsolete by today's standard.
There is no way ROC fighter jets can match PLAAF J10C, and any Mainland fighter jets built after J10C.
I think the only hope is foreign intervention. What can Patriots do? You will end up with all sh*t options in that case.
Do you let all the BMs hit and save them for Cruise missiles?
Do you let the CMs through and save them for HALE/MALE drones?
Do you let the drones through and hope to hit aircraft?
All of these present potentially 1000's of targets, they don't have enough missiles for all of them.
Yes, I am aware, but there was a recent multipage discussion about the effectiveness of the ~300 modern fighter jets in ROCAF inventory (M2K, FCK, F-16). There is no question now.
You don’t solve the birth rate issue with money. You solve the birth rate issue by lowering relative cost of living and reducing work culture burden on social life. The point of getting rich was to have more leisure not more grind.
Guancha latest broadcast title: After the India-Pakistan air war, the most panicked may not be India and Pakistan
Like I previous reposted in Kashmir thread The Kashmir conflict 2025. Rafale essentially triggered a narrative clash between admirers of American & French weaponry. Taiwan has long maintained a hybrid approach - they are purchasing F-16Vs and upgrading F-16A/Bs, while still operating a substantial fleet of Mirage 2000s.
In the Taiwanese narrative, F-16V is superior to the F-16A/B, which is equivalent to the Mirage 2000, both surpassing the IDF. Rafale, though unobtainable, is portrayed as comparable to the J-20 and superior to the F-16V - top treasure of French fighter jets. However, the recent incident where Rafale easily shot down by J-10CE is a subversive challenge to their narrative.
Maintaining the original narrative would equate to admitting that the entire air force would crumble upon contact with the PLAAF, eliminating any possibility of direct confrontation (though this aligns with our perception of reality).
Could they disparage French systems as worthless? Yet Taiwan's air force cannot realistically replace its Mirage 2000s, nor explain away decades of praise for these aircraft.
Now even staunchly pro-DPP military analyst who acknowledge the Rafale was taken down by J-10CE based on substantial evidence, accused by fellow pro-DPP factions of being "Chinese collaborators". Taiwanese society finds itself engulfed in yet another storm of security narrative conflicts.
Like I previous reposted in Kashmir thread The Kashmir conflict 2025. Rafale essentially triggered a narrative clash between admirers of American & French weaponry. Taiwan has long maintained a hybrid approach - they are purchasing F-16Vs and upgrading F-16A/Bs, while still operating a substantial fleet of Mirage 2000s.
In the Taiwanese narrative, F-16V is superior to the F-16A/B, which is equivalent to the Mirage 2000, both surpassing the IDF. Rafale, though unobtainable, is portrayed as comparable to the J-20 and superior to the F-16V - top treasure of French fighter jets. However, the recent incident where Rafale easily shot down by J-10CE is a subversive challenge to their narrative.
Maintaining the original narrative would equate to admitting that the entire air force would crumble upon contact with the PLAAF, eliminating any possibility of direct confrontation (though this aligns with our perception of reality).
Could they disparage French systems as worthless? Yet Taiwan's air force cannot realistically replace its Mirage 2000s, nor explain away decades of praise for these aircraft.
Now even staunchly pro-DPP military analyst who acknowledge the Rafale was taken down by J-10CE based on substantial evidence, accused by fellow pro-DPP factions of being "Chinese collaborators". Taiwanese society finds itself engulfed in yet another storm of security narrative conflicts.
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