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iewgnem

Captain
Registered Member
Phead128 said:
Where is Canada with the dunce hat? Canada followed US and imposed 100% EV tariffs on Chinese EVs, now it's slapped in the face by both US and China...
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Liberals won't do anything before the election.
After the election, if they win, I give it 50% chance they fold fully to US including 10% chance of becoming 51st state voluntarily (it's a biological desire after all), 25% chance they lean toward China and abolish EV tariff, and 25% chance they do nothing.
 
E

enroger

Senior Member
Registered Member
taxiya said:
At some point raising tariff figures would become a childish and sily game of "who can piss the highest". If one just want to win the game, it can go up to 1,000,000 %. It won't make any difference from 100 % except making one looks like an idiot? Trump certainly is that idiot and the world has already seen that, but China doesn't want to be seen that way. So I expect Trump to "win" the game of pissing as usual.

It is very similar to the nuclear arm race when both USA and USSR could destroy the world like 30 times each. It looks extremely stupid.

I think China's consideration of the tariff ratio is around inflation of US economy, interest rate and USD value. The figure of tariff is to deteriorate all of them untill US collapse/fold/give up. It may not stop at 84%, but it isn't focused on mathing Trump's number.
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The number doesn't matter now, it is just a mutual embargo really. For China it is losing 2 to 3% GDP's worth of export, for US it is 15% of their import. China can dig in and see whether US can survive without China's industrial input, but I don't think China cares that much either way.

This is not Trump's nuclear option, he used his nuclear option in his first term which was the tech ban, back then it was unclear to a lot of Chinese whether China's tech industry can survive that and there was a genuine sense of uncertainty. But as we've seen the tech industry not only survived but actually thrived thanks to the tech ban.

There is nothing that really scares China now, we can just eat water melon and see how the drama inside US unfold, it is going to be entertaining
 
D

dingyibvs

Senior Member
Xiongmao said:
So is that it for the tariff exchange? No response to 145%? Do we wait it out until one side folds?
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Yes, I believe so. I briefly mentioned it in the Trump thread, but Trump's tariffs had been 20%, 34%, then 50%, which signaled that he was willing to escalate indefinitely. However, China called his bluff and matched it every step of the way. That the latest increase was a decrease in the rate of increase to 25% followed by the comment that he doesn't believe there'll be further China tariffs signals that he's now willing to stop the escalation. I believe that China will signal the same and answer that with non-tariff retaliations. At the current rate, any further increase by either side doesn't really matter that much, as most trade will be stopped and fewer and fewer companies will be affected. The first battle is over and the main takeaway right now is that both sides are willing to fight.

Each side will now take a pause, assess the battleground, and prepare for the next salvo. As I've mentioned before, I believe that China's best strategy is to strengthen itself. Use the current anti-US mood to broaden and deepen trade relations with other countries. The US's best strategy IMO is to change tactics. Rather than continuing to try to attack China it needs to shore up the flanks and close the ranks. They need to offer carrots instead of just sticks to the ROW to prevent China from making inroads elsewhere.
 
Thecore

Thecore

Junior Member
Registered Member
US bank run incoming? Migrant bank accounts to be cancelled or frozen. How soon before it's all immigrants or even 2nd generation non-white citizens? 15.8% of Americans are foreign born. An estimated 25% of Americans are either 1st or 2nd generation. If you belong to this cohort, the risk of this happening is growing by the day and you would be remiss not to start planning to take action soon.

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