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GulfLander

Brigadier
Registered Member
daifo said:
Glenn found the amount of services and us mnc trade are in China which the US don't account for in their deficit account. If you take those in, the trade is closer to balance than unbalenced.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1909873793973338353
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Curious, how much localizationis the software/service industry in CN? Like if suddenly, Ad0be, Micr0s0ft etc got banned by U.. S to do business in CN?
 
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Proton

Junior Member
Registered Member
FriedButter said:
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FYI. Russia break even is estimated around ~$45 per barrel but a lot of US oil is between ~$55 to $60. If OPEC is willing to eat an bullet then they could run US oil into an crisis under Trump lol.
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Oil is only about 1% of the US economy though, but perhaps a oil-sector crisis could still have some massive ripples throughout an economy already dealing with serious headwinds.
 
FriedButter

FriedButter

Brigadier
Registered Member
Proton said:
Oil is only about 1% of the US economy though, but perhaps a oil-sector crisis could still have some massive ripples throughout an economy already dealing with serious headwinds.
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Economically, it would be limited but it will be politically problematic to say the least. MAGA will be forced to either let US oil go bankrupt, nationalize it, or bail them out. Assuming Oil continues to go lower. All 3 options have extremely poor political support.
 
daifo

daifo

Major
Registered Member
GulfLander said:
Curious, how much localizationis the software/service industry in CN? Like if suddenly, Ad0be, Micr0s0ft etc got banned by U.. S to do business in CN?
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Those generic commercial software are all replaceable with open source or you can just spin up a team to build a similar product in quick fashion. The Chinese has accrue enough buisness practices in all industries in the last 2 decades to reproduce the enterprise software like salesforce or oracle erp etc Them leaving China would actually help opensource and the local software industry.

The ones that are hard/difficult to replace are the ones for niche industrial and scientific purposes like the chip design software which some has already been gimped or ban.
 
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