PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

Iron Man

Major
Registered Member
Stop nonsense and trolling. Let's consider America's combat equipment readyness before debate. Even let elsewhere free, not all of Aging US ships/carriers are ready & capable to reach 2IC. Meanwhile don't forget China's Rocket Force, with thousands of DF-XX missiles, enough to deter/weaken US logistics to a critical level.

Again. If there is a full-scale war between US & China, then it's not going to be easy for both two. Just look at both sides' loss from RAND's simulations. These simulations pre-define lots of premise conditions, such as US' bombers are always invincible. :rolleyes:

This is war games' report 3 years ago. Balance changed a lot since then.

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Beating on a straw man argument is a sign of weakness. Nobody here including me said a war would be easy for the US or would not be costly for both sides. It would be the most violent war since WW2, with a high risk of escalation to a nuclear exchange. And let's note that the ONLY evidence you cite is a link where the US beats China in a war, which you laughably try to counter with "balance changed a lot since then". What, since 3 years ago??? Hahahahaha
 

duskseeker

Junior Member
Registered Member
Beating on a straw man argument is a sign of weakness. Nobody here including me said a war would be easy for the US or would not be costly for both sides. It would be the most violent war since WW2, with a high risk of escalation to a nuclear exchange. And let's note that the ONLY evidence you cite is a link where the US beats China in a war, which you laughably try to counter with "balance changed a lot since then". What, since 3 years ago??? Hahahahaha
Missile production, drone warfare, Railguns were not a thing for the PLAN some time ago. Just the level of Russian Shovel and washing machine technology to hit targets in Ukraine has leap frogged since then.
 

AndrewJ

Junior Member
Registered Member
Beating on a straw man argument is a sign of weakness. Nobody here including me said a war would be easy for the US or would not be costly for both sides. It would be the most violent war since WW2, with a high risk of escalation to a nuclear exchange. And let's note that the ONLY evidence you cite is a link where the US beats China in a war, which you laughably try to counter with "balance changed a lot since then". What, since 3 years ago??? Hahahahaha

Are you seeing CSIS' wargaming result as a fact that China is determined to lose? If that's the case, I quit.
 
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Biscuits

Colonel
Registered Member
The SPY-1's technological level surely is outdated compared to modern AESAs, but its Aegis combat management system is state of the art and can track thousands of targets, and it's not clear to me that it's automatically less effective than the Type 346 just because one is PESA and one is AESA. It's not clear how many targets the combat data system associated with the Type 346 can track, and neither is it clear how effective or robust China's approximation of the American CEC datalink is, assuming the PLAN has one in the first place. Also, your comment about outdated missiles is just nonsensical, along with your comment about "outdated hull". What does "outdated hull" even mean? Also, 96 VLS cells vs only 64 VLS cells is not something one can waive away with a fanboi hand like it somehow means nothing. One of the metrics used to gauge the strength of a country's navy is VLS count, and by that measure the USN still far outpaces the PLAN. It would be a grave mistake to think that the Chinese military would simply roll over the US military if it came to fight China over a Taiwan war. I have no doubt that Chinese generals do NOT make this kind of rookie mistake, and that irrational exuberance is mainly limited to internet generals.
"Battleship Agincourt is more powerful than battleship Iowa, 16 guns vs 9 guns is not something one can wave away with a fanboi hand like it means nothing"

Are you forgetting that the 052's VLS significantly out caliber the Burke's? They fit missiles with longer range and better performance, not just due to tech difference, but because larger caliber lets you put in more mileage.

And the actual analogue to Burkes are 055s. 052s are meant to be force multipliers that become more than the sum of their parts when they're working together with 055s. Comparing a Burke with a 052 is like comparing a Slava to an Asahi and saying it means the Russian navy has defintely higher quality ships than the JMSDF. So you entirely omit the Atagos/Kongos?

Also the part about radars is pure bullshit, every half competent combat system can achieve what you said. China has the radar acumen to even make hit to kill work on HGVs, something US doesn't even have a ppt platform able to do yet. If anything, it's the Burke radar that must be questioned relative to the 052's (let alone the 055's, which during wartime will be the master radar while the 052's acts in a support role).

I mean the way the PLA is built up, there is a larger focus on quality, while US has undisputably a lot more peacetime troops/units. China is counting on the tyranny of distance to even the numbers gap, and a more elite/advanced army to scare off US from attempting an invasion, since they know US is scared of or at least wholly inexperienced at fighting more advanced (but smaller) forces. And if US still attacks, shock and awe/destroying logistics center will buy enough time for China to shift into war industry and begin conscription.

Obviously US can as you say, give China a very tough fight by going full draft and then sending everything they have at once to overload the smaller PLA in a decisive battle, this plays against the way US usually wants to fight, they don't want to send tons of human waves and lose a lot more men/ships than their enemy just to capture land. Even if this is the objectively correct strategy. China also counts on this mental block, that US will be careful, will not storm in all their ships into missile range, will not land millions of troops to Asia and so on, thus giving time for China to begin war production.
 

latenlazy

Brigadier
I actually addressed it a second time in my last post, but it just amazes me how you can just stupidly sit there and keep saying "nope, nope, nope" like you've got your head buried up your ass in order to keep your ears shut and your eyes closed. Your 'expertise' is clearly not actually in the details of any military-related argument, but rather in gaslighting, insulting, and outright denial of facts. The devil is in the details, and you are clearly not someone who belongs here.
You “addressed” it the second time the exact same way you addressed it the first time. Lots of words, no math, and endless dancing around the contention. “The devil is in the details” and you like to obfuscate around the wrong ones to keep your blustery fantasies alive (ever counted how many salvos the USN could even field around China? Nah, those are the kinds of facts that would leave you speechless). It does get pretty tiresome.

Given that both our posting history is pretty long everyone knows who has the “expertise” in this conversation. We’ve been watching you play unaware court jester for years now. You frequently find yourself with egg on your face and we’re all starting to wonder when you’ll finally figure it out.


And how do you think you are doing so far scrub hahahahahaha

Pretty well actually. I’m turning you into entertainment for everyone else. The more you do the pretend laugh the more we can actually laugh at your seething :)
 
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Iron Man

Major
Registered Member
Missile production, drone warfare, Railguns were not a thing for the PLAN some time ago. Just the level of Russian Shovel and washing machine technology to hit targets in Ukraine has leap frogged since then.
Drone warfare is less relevant for PLAN vs USN and PLAAF/PLANAF vs USAF/USN, at least in the short term, since both militaries are still in nascent stages of development of drones for these domains. It's on the ground where the lessons of Ukraine and Russia are probably the most mature for the PLA, and maybe somewhat less so for the US Army/Marines, though PLA vs US Army seems to be only a very distant and honestly laughable possibility for me. As for missile production, what of it? As for railguns, the PLAN looks like it's further along, but we haven't heard any news about it lately.

Are you seeing RAND's wargaming result as a fact that China is determined to lose?
Absolutely not. In fact IMO the PLA may be somewhat favored to win in the 2027/2028 timeframe.

"Battleship Agincourt is more powerful than battleship Iowa, 16 guns vs 9 guns is not something one can wave away with a fanboi hand like it means nothing"

Are you forgetting that the 052's VLS significantly out caliber the Burke's? They fit missiles with longer range and better performance, not just due to tech difference, but because larger caliber lets you put in more mileage.
And yet I don't know of any missiles that actually use this outcaliberage saving possibly the YJ-21, and even then nobody knows for sure. So basically your argument is like saying the Mk 57 is so much better than the Mk 41, except oh wait it's not really since you don't have the actual rounds to make the larger size matter.

And the actual analogue to Burkes are 055s. 052s are meant to be force multipliers that become more than the sum of their parts when they're working together with 055s.
WTF are you talking about? Was I the one who posted the photo of the Burke right next to a photo of the 052D and insinuated they are the same? Did you not even read where I quoted Paparo as saying that the 052D is a "0.6" Burke, or did you just decide to ignore that? If you cannot even get your basic facts straight, you should not even be in the argument.

Comparing a Burke with a 052 is like comparing a Slava to an Asahi and saying it means the Russian navy has defintely higher quality ships than the JMSDF. So you entirely omit the Atagos/Kongos?
This is a totally nonsensical point which again shows you totally missed the point to begin with. BTW, it would NOT be nonsensical to compare the 052D to the Burke since these are the two most numerous destroyers in each navy; BTW the Burke outsizes, outshoots and outnumbers the 052D. If someone else juxtaposes these two classes together, you could certainly compare them in that sense.

Also the part about radars is pure bullshit, every half competent combat system can achieve what you said. China has the radar acumen to even make hit to kill work on HGVs, something US doesn't even have a ppt platform able to do yet. If anything, it's the Burke radar that must be questioned relative to the 052's (let alone the 055's, which during wartime will be the master radar while the 052's acts in a support role).
Oh really? Every competent combat system can achieve what I said? If it's every, you must have articles and numbers for some, yes? Go ahead, I'll wait.

I mean the way the PLA is built up, there is a larger focus on quality, while US has undisputably a lot more peacetime troops/units. China is counting on the tyranny of distance to even the numbers gap, and a more elite/advanced army to scare off US from attempting an invasion, since they know US is scared of or at least wholly inexperienced at fighting more advanced (but smaller) forces. And if US still attacks, shock and awe/destroying logistics center will buy enough time for China to shift into war industry and begin conscription.
Scare the US off from attempting an invasion??? Of which country??? I'm sorry, which retard's war are you referring to again? You are trying to claim that the US will invade China? Or what? ROFLMAO

Obviously US can as you say, give China a very tough fight by going full draft and then sending everything they have at once to overload the smaller PLA in a decisive battle, this plays against the way US usually wants to fight, they don't want to send tons of human waves and lose a lot more men/ships than their enemy just to capture land. Even if this is the objectively correct strategy. China also counts on this mental block, that US will be careful, will not storm in all their ships into missile range, will not land millions of troops to Asia and so on, thus giving time for China to begin war production.
LOL no, just no.

You “addressed” it the second time the exact same way you addressed it the first time. Lots of words, no math, and endless dancing around the contention. “The devil is in the details” and you like to obfuscate around the wrong ones to keep your blustery fantasies alive (ever counted how many salvos the USN could even field around China? Nah, those are the kinds of facts that would leave you speechless). It does get pretty tiresome.

Given both our history of posting here is pretty long everyone knows who has “expertise” here. We’ve been watching you play unaware court jester for years now. You frequently find yourself with egg on your face and we’re all starting to wonder when you’ll finally figure it out.
I listed specific points which annihilated your ridiculous claims, and your response here is like that of a petulant child with a bruised ego trying to front to everyone like he didn't actually just get punched in the eye on the playground.

Pretty well actually. I’m turning you into entertainment for everyone else :)
Well I'm glad you're good at entertainment because you sure as shit aren't good at either debating or intellectual honesty :)
 

latenlazy

Brigadier
I listed specific points which annihilated your ridiculous claims, and your response here is like that of a dishonest child with a bruised ego trying to front like he didn't just get punched in the eye on the playground.

The fact that you have to use meaningless exaggerations like “annihilated” and like you actually addressed anything tells everyone that you’re trying very hard to market empty calories, almost as if it’s actually your ego that’s bruised :)
Fantasizing violence toward me doesn’t help much here either I’m afraid. Just affirms that your feelings are hurt.
Well I'm glad you're good at entertainment because you sure as shit aren't good at either debating or intellectual honesty :)
lol you think you have intellectual honesty? You’re here to puff your chest because you’re insecure, and the tell is your dependence on hollow bombast while you dance around inconvenient points like *how many salvos can the USN field in China’s periphery* (You going to answer that btw? Or are you going to run away like you always do because the answer will make you look like a clown?). You seem to think that’s the same thing as being good at debating. It’d be almost cute if it weren’t so stale and sad.
 
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Biscuits

Colonel
Registered Member
Drone warfare is less relevant for PLAN vs USN and PLAAF/PLANAF vs USAF/USN, at least in the short term, since both militaries are still in nascent stages of development of drones for these domains. It's on the ground where the lessons of Ukraine and Russia are probably the most mature for the PLA, and maybe somewhat less so for the US Army/Marines, though PLA vs US Army seems to be only a very distant and honestly laughable possibility for me. As for missile production, what of it? As for railguns, the PLAN looks like it's further along, but we haven't heard any news about it lately.


Absolutely not. In fact IMO the PLA may be somewhat favored to win in the 2027/2028 timeframe.


And yet I don't know of any missiles that actually use this outcaliberage saving possibly the YJ-21, and even then nobody knows for sure. So basically your argument is like saying the Mk 57 is so much better than the Mk 41, except oh wait it's not really since you don't have the actual rounds to make the larger size matter.
If you watch PLA at all, you and I both know China nearly never shows what's inside the VLS. Conjecting that the rounds to take advantage of the larger caliber doesn't exist is 100% retarded, why else would the designer make the tubes large? Because he is secretly an US nationalist MAGA who wants to give America a fighting chance by reducing the number of PLAN VLS? Lmfao, retardation on full display.

YJ-21 is just one example of munitions that are just way better because of the caliber.
WTF are you talking about? Was I the one who posted the photo of the Burke right next to a photo of the 052D and insinuated they are the same? Did you not even read where I quoted Paparo as saying that the 052D is a "0.6" Burke, or did you just decide to ignore that? If you cannot even get your basic facts straight, you should not even be in the argument.
Yeah and this guy surely has no ulterior motives, it's not as if the whole US military is filled with blind nationalists. What's next, you're gonna quote Hegseth? Or even quote Indian generals on India capabilities?
This is a totally nonsensical point which again shows you totally missed the point to begin with. BTW, it would NOT be nonsensical to compare the 052D to the Burke since these are the two most numerous destroyers in each navy; BTW the Burke outsizes, outshoots and outnumbers the 052D. If someone else juxtaposes these two classes together, you could certainly compare them in that sense.
But US and China have different doctrines, China's doesn't have 1 type of DDG to cover everything, they use a combination of a larger and a smaller DDG.
Oh really? Every competent combat system can achieve what I said? If it's every, you must have articles and numbers for some, yes? Go ahead, I'll wait.
Some limited amount of the specs are shown at Zhuhai, anyways you and I both do know China will never show the interior of a DDG and how exactly the combat management functions, not even US will do it.
Scare the US off from attempting an invasion??? Of which country??? I'm sorry, which retard's war are you referring to again? You are trying to claim that the US will invade China? Or what? ROFLMAO
The whole thread is about US threatening to attack China through Taiwan, did you miss that???

You're not serious lmfao

Well if US wants to invade no one, then there's no need for this thread at all. US can just stay off China's land and I doubt China wants US' land like Hawaii or California either.

Unfortunately your dear leader Trump but especially ex-dear leader Biden has an obsession with territorial threats.
 

Iron Man

Major
Registered Member
The fact that you have to use meaningless exaggerations like “annihilated” like you actually addressed anything tells everyone that you’re trying very hard to market empty calories, almost as if it’s actually your ego that’s bruised :)
The fact that you're completely unable to individually address ANY of my points except to claim that they are somehow Badz tells everyone you don't actually have any legitimate rebuttals and have had to dance around this painful fact ever since then.

lol you think you have intellectual honesty? You’re here to puff your chest because you’re insecure, and your dependence on hollow bombast is the tell. You seem to think that’s the same thing as being good at debating. It’d be almost cute if it weren’t so stale at this point.
What exactly do you think I'm puffing my chest about, exactly? I'm not a US military fan. You only think so because you're straight PLA fanboi tool and cannot countenance any sleight on the PLA's absolute superiority and uncontestable ability to kick ass and chew bubble gum. And TBH your bias makes you dumber, even to the point of suffering from the Dunning-Kruger effect. I can't help you with that, unfortunately. :(
 

Iron Man

Major
Registered Member
If you watch PLA at all, you and I both know China nearly never shows what's inside the VLS. Conjecting that the rounds to take advantage of the larger caliber doesn't exist is 100% retarded, why else would the designer make the tubes large? Because he is secretly an US nationalist MAGA who wants to give America a fighting chance by reducing the number of PLAN VLS? Lmfao, retardation on full display.

YJ-21 is just one example of munitions that are just way better because of the caliber.
Ah, I see, so you have no actual evidence of ANY rounds that use the full bore of the UVLS. Got it.

Yeah and this guy surely has no ulterior motives, it's not as if the whole US military is filled with blind nationalists. What's next, you're gonna quote Hegseth? Or even quote Indian generals on India capabilities?
Umm, I don't think you even know what you're flatulating at this point. The guy in question is undoubtedly a PLA fanboi, NOT a US military fanboi.

But US and China have different doctrines, China's doesn't have 1 type of DDG to cover everything, they use a combination of a larger and a smaller DDG.
Duh. OTOH the PLAN has far more 052Ds than it has 055s, and the US has far more Burkes than it has any other ships. So if you make the comparison, sure I'll do it too.

Some limited amount of the specs are shown at Zhuhai, anyways you and I both do know China will never show the interior of a DDG and how exactly the combat management functions, not even US will do it.
Ah, I see, so you have no actual evidence of the capabilities of ANY combat data systems. Got it.

The whole thread is about US threatening to attack China through Taiwan, did you miss that???

You're not serious lmfao

Well if US wants to invade no one, then there's no need for this thread at all. US can just stay off China's land and I doubt China wants US' land like Hawaii or California either.
You were talking about ground troops and "invasions" in a war that will be decided by aircraft, ships, subs, and missiles. That is why you fail.

Unfortunately your dear leader Trump but especially ex-dear leader Biden has an obsession with territorial threats.
You're confusing me with somebody else. JFC
 
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