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SolarWarden

Junior Member
Registered Member
USAF was not going to make the same mistake it did during the YF-22 and YF-23 competition by selecting the safer/common fighter in the YF-22 over the exotic one in the YF-23. USAF said LM version is evolutionary but it was building on its F-22 and F-35 while Boeing's F-47 is more ambitious and fresher approach. This was in Nov of 2023 when they said this so USAF already had a preference.
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Boeing had decades to get ready for this competition after losing the F-35 competition and knew to think outside the box so they took a lot of their Bird of Prey design incorporating it into the F-47
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Boeing_Bird_of_Prey_USAF.jpg

This wowed the USAF and what also wowed USAF is that Boeing heavily invested in having the manufacturing plants ready which is really ballzy of them and could have broken their Phantom works division for good if USAF went with LM.
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This why LRP can start in 2029.

Boeing came to play and was well prepared for this competition. It looks like LM kinda half a $$ed it not thinking outside the box likely too busy with F-35 program and Darkstar. I wouldn't be surprise if Boeng wins the Navy competition in a few months making it a clean sweep.

Makes me wonder if all this investment from Boeing into its Phantom works division may had a play in Boeing's civilian sector "issues."
 

bebops

Junior Member
Registered Member
Have anyone read about the golden dome?

Next is to weaponized mass satellite constellation with missiles. They think low orbit satellites armed with missiles can destroy nukes with very high probability. I think this is what the U.S golden dome is all about.
 

SunlitZelkova

New Member
Registered Member
Have anyone read about the golden dome?

Next is to weaponized mass satellite constellation with missiles. They think low orbit satellites armed with missiles can destroy nukes with very high probability. I think this is what the U.S golden dome is all about.

Yes, I have. The proposal is not to arm satellites with missiles to hit nuclear missiles, but to have the satellites themselves hit the missiles. Golden Dome also encompasses defense against lower end missile threats to CONUS, such as cruise missiles launched from ships or submarines or ALBMs.

As for the space-based part, here is a telling article drawing from studies conducted by a third party organization, acting in an advisory role to the first George W. administration.
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But previous efforts to field a space-based missile interceptor system did not move forward in large part because the technology was immature, and the costs were prohibitive. But times have changed. This article provides an updated rough order of magnitude estimate for what such a system might cost. The analysis is based on the methodology outlined in a 2004 report by the American Physical Society (APS) and is updated with current assumptions.

Intercepting a missile during the boost phase is ideal because the missile cannot deploy decoy warheads and is much easier to track. It is challenging, however, because of the tight timeline involved. An intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) typically has a boost phase that lasts three to four minutes, and it may take 30 seconds or more before a launch is detected and a track is established. Even with the improved coverage of the new missile tracking layer being deployed by the Space Force in the coming years, it is reasonable to assume that a space-based interceptor would have roughly 150 seconds to strike its target during the boost phase.

To be effective, interceptors would need to be based in low Earth orbit (LEO) to intercept the missile inflight. Using the aforementioned APS model, if the interceptors are kept in orbit at an altitude of 500 km, approximately 1,900 interceptors would be needed to provide continuous coverage of all points on Earth with an average of two interceptors. Each interceptor, including propellant, kill vehicle, and support systems, would weigh around 900 kg. Using an 85 percent learning curve, the average procurement unit cost (APUC) of each interceptor in a constellation like this is estimated to be between $4.4 and $8.9 million, for a total procurement cost of $8.6 to $17.2 billion (all costs are in 2025 dollars). An additional $2 to $4 billion would likely be needed for non-recurring development costs, and the constellation would need to be replenished about every 5 years as satellites age and their orbits decay.

Launch costs are perhaps the area where updated assumptions matter the most because launch costs have fallen significantly in the past decade and are expected to fall by another factor of ten in the coming years. At the low end (using the most generous assumptions) launching a constellation of 1,900 interceptors with a mass of 900 kg each would require at least 12 of SpaceX’s Starship launch vehicle with a payload capacity of 150,000 kg each and an estimated cost of $70 million per launch (an aggressive assumption). At the high end, it would require 39 of Blue Origin’s New Glenn rocket with a payload capacity of 45,000 kg and a cost of up to $150 million per launch. Given these assumptions, the overall launch cost would be somewhere between $0.8 to $5.9 billion for the constellation. As in the case of the interceptors, launch costs would be incurred each time the constellation needs to be replenished every five years or so.

The total cost to develop, build, and launch an initial constellation of 1,900 space-based interceptors would likely be on the order of $11 to $27 billion. If this seems like a no-brainer to protect the United States from ballistic missile attack, there’s a catch. The system described above is only sized to intercept a maximum of two missiles launched in a salvo. That means that if an adversary launches a salvo of three missiles, only two could be intercepted and at least one would get through because all of the other interceptors in the constellation would be out of range—what is known as the absenteeism problem.

The grim reality is that the cost of a space-based interceptor system scales linearly with the number of missiles it can intercept in a salvo, excluding development costs. Designing the system to have an average of four interceptors in range (and thus able to intercept a salvo of four missiles at once) requires twice as many interceptors (some 3,800 in total) and twice as many launches. This is true even if multiple interceptors are housed together. A space-based interceptor system for missile defense does not scale well when compared to adversary missile forces. While the costs have come down and the technology has matured, the physics of space-based interceptors has not changed.

Doing the math, DOD estimates put Russia's ICBM arsenal at 326 and China's at 454 by 2035. That would require 741,000 satellites for full coverage, with only one shot per missile, requiring every interceptor to work perfectly.

To give some idea of how astronomical that number is, SpaceX's Starlink constellation is planned to have no more than 42,000 satellites... if even that (it could be as low as 36,000). IIRC China doesn't have plans for any constellation bigger than 60,000 satellites.

And keep in mind that doesn't take into account SLBMs!

Now, for a smaller country... namely North Korea... assuming the North Korean ICBM arsenal is 60 to 100 missiles, that would require either 57,000 or 95,000 satellites... which sounds more doable, but again, it would leave only one shot per missile and require all satellites to work perfectly.

Perhaps for this reason, Lockheed, which has already put up PR materials related to Golden Dome, have suggested backing the satellites up with ground-based, mid-course interceptors.
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Lockheed does happen to be the company building NGI, the replacement for the existing GBI ground-based ICBM interceptors at Fort Greely. So they are pushing their existing product while asking for the contract for the new one.

Note that the existing GBI system has a very questionable success rate. Skewing test statistics gives it a 97% kill probability if 4 missiles are fired at an incoming ICBM, but realistically the probability of one missile succeeding is closer to 25-50%... no matter how many are launched at an incoming ICBM.

So the anti-ICBM segment of the system is still pie in the sky stuff, much like the Strategic Defense Initiative. At best it is just destabilizing and a waste of resources, at worst it is a brainless attempt to make a nuclear first strike feasible.

On the other hand, the anti-cruise missile/anti-SRBM/anti-MRBM segment of the system would rely on just building air defense sites at CONUS locations using existing systems like THAAD and Patriot.

This is sorely needed for the US. Over in the PLA Westpac Strike Strategy thread, people have pointed out countless times how CONUS is extremely vulnerable and even launching limited strikes, perhaps using cruise missiles launched from SSNs or the rumored conventional ICBMs that the PLARF desires, would be an effective way of forcing the US to tie down assets in CONUS, thus keeping them out of a fight in the 1IC and 2IC. The less glamorous, already existing equipment that could become part of Golden Dome would fill that gap and alleviate the threat.

And even if the Golden Dome doesn't live up to the promise of protecting the entire country from missiles, at the very least it would provide an impetus to deploy a small number of new Patriot and THAAD batteries around critical US defense sites.
 

johncliu88

Junior Member
Registered Member
Did someone pay attention to the front noise landing gear of F-47? It looks like it is for light weight aircraft. Take a look at the first picture and compare it with the second picture that shows the F-22 noise landing gear.
F-47.jpg
F-22.jpg
 

Atomicfrog

Major
Registered Member
Did someone pay attention to the front noise landing gear of F-47? It looks like it is for light weight aircraft. Take a look at the first picture and compare it with the second picture that shows the F-22 noise landing gear.
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Artist rendering... not engineer rendering. I cannot see Boeing hatching that project in 3 years, maybe a mockup or at best an empty shell for ground testing.
 

gpt

Junior Member
Registered Member
And even if the Golden Dome doesn't live up to the promise of protecting the entire country from missiles, at the very least it would provide an impetus to deploy a small number of new Patriot and THAAD batteries around critical US defense sites.

Golden Dome currently is an expansion of hit-to-kill technology which means more NGI sites, AEGIS/PAC-3/THAAD/GPI on both shores.
If they can get solid motor and sensor production under control, IMO $50bn (plus overhead and unexpected costs) for missile shield against >1k warheads is feasible. SBI has a kinetic (pLEO architecture using Starshield-like sats) and space directed energy. As I said in an earlier
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, parts of this plan are very provocative and will drastically increase the proliferation of long-range non-ballistic missiles and ultimately the end of the Outer Space Treaty.
 
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