Chinese Economics Thread

siegecrossbow

General
Staff member
Super Moderator
This makes me a bit uneasy, isn't this just Westernisation of the Chinese economy? As a master economist once remarked, consumption actually adds not one iota to the GDP of a country by its own definition. The nation's consumption is how much of its annual production is actually consumed by the populace rather than used for other purposes such as savings and investment.

Westernization of the economy would be charging 2K USD for ambulance rides and counting prostitution/drug dealing as part of the GDP.
 

Jiang ZeminFanboy

Senior Member
Registered Member

We're gonna win so much, you may even get tired of winning. And you'll say, 'Please, please. It's too much winning. We can't take it anymore. Mr. President, it's too much!
We need a new version of "not so deep, I am a nuclear superpower" . With an American flag
aXa3YJr7_700w_0.jpg
 

mossen

Junior Member
Registered Member
Boosting consumption seems like the right approach, though I find it funny given that this has long been a Western demand of China. But what other choice did they have? Here's consumer confidence:

CN_Consumer_Confidence.png

Even getting back to 2015-16 levels would be an improvement. China's industrial sector has been beating all kinds of records but their consumers have been left behind.

Part of the issue is very high savings rates.

1.jpg

Moving from 33% of household savings rate to ~20% would do a lot. But a major issue is China's relatively weak pension system. People save that much because they cannot count on much state support in their old age. So if the govt wants to boost consumption, they must first tackle the reasons why Chinese people save that much (uncertainty and insecurity in old age). But Xi has long been skeptical of a "welfare state". So it will be interesting to see how they thread this needle.
 

mossen

Junior Member
Registered Member
Seems like China's fuels demand has flatlined due to massive replacement of demand via EVs, HSR and metro.

1.png


2025 demand is forecasted to remain in the historial range of 8 mb/d. Notice that jet demand will continue to increase, but it is more than offset by EV/Rail/Metro. Everything above the gray line are offsets.

An economy growing at 5% per year while seeing no new fossil fuels demand is obviously not only impressive but more importantly great for the planet.

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