PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

[Feima]

For those who missed the statement in Chinese posted before, Lai called Taiwan a sovereign country in his national security speech.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1900436624422690875

He and Tsai before him say that all the time, and the name of their 'country' changes. Variations include "this country" (Tsai's favourite), "ROC parenthesis Taiwan parenthesis", "ROC Taiwan" and "ROC in Taiwan".

Everybody on Taiwanese political talk shows recognizes that the formal name is simply ROC, and that any kind of embellishment is made-up nonsense, but they still argue over this shit endlessly.

 

[Nevermore]

I predict that the mainland will not take action within the next ten years. During this period, continuous military exercises will force the island government to make mistakes, making it like a pressure cooker internally, forcing foreign capital and talent away, and isolating it on the international stage

 

[latenlazy]

You guys lack patience… seriously.

Too many war horny people but I guess this is a defense forum so *shrug*.

 

[Bellum_Romanum]

latest assessment from one of the U.S. Army War College "expert" regarding Chinese military capabilities a.k.a. "Warfighting" and the chance of success in a possible Taiwan operation.

 

[SanWenYu]

I predict that the mainland will not take action within the next ten years. During this period, continuous military exercises will force the island government to make mistakes, making it like a pressure cooker internally, forcing foreign capital and talent away, and isolating it on the international stage

I am not sure about the ten year frame but indeed what the mainland has been doing can be summarized as 温水煮青蛙 and 郑伯克段于鄢.

 

[BasilicaLew]

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This was a while ago and IDK if this was already posted, but when I posted it in the HGV thread, it seemed as if this site hasn't. I find this to be a very good source of how the Americans feel about Taiwan, as clearly they're not lying in the leaked documents. I find it interesting that in all the leaks the DOD's intel on China is almost as bad as these forums, showing that the Chinese counterintelligence is top-notch, at least compared to Russian's. And also that China could get a lot more out of their air force than the Russians, obviously. But also the public isn't ready for war in Taiwan, this kinda just has me suspect that China would destroy the Taiwanese moral just by bombing them while blockading them at the same time.

 

[Overbom]

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This was a while ago and IDK if this was already posted, but when I posted it in the HGV thread, it seemed as if this site hasn't. I find this to be a very good source of how the Americans feel about Taiwan, as clearly they're not lying in the leaked documents. I find it interesting that in all the leaks the DOD's intel on China is almost as bad as these forums, showing that the Chinese counterintelligence is top-notch, at least compared to Russian's. And also that China could get a lot more out of their air force than the Russians, obviously. But also the public isn't ready for war in Taiwan, this kinda just has me suspect that China would destroy the Taiwanese moral just by bombing them while blockading them at the same time.

While true I would caution on drawing concrete conclusions.

Intelligence and counter-intelligence are very complex matters. It could very well be just the CIA and Pentagon throwing bait and playing 3/4/5D chess.

Or even if true, it's very simple to conclude that there are multiple levels of intelligence that is available in the US, with each outer layer of intelligence being available to more people. And with each inward layer fewer and fewer people are aware of it, but its also more insightful, useful and more accurate

What I am trying to say, they serve as a good starting point for public discussion but shouldn't be given too much importance imo.
For all we know, even that assessment is quite forgiving and their top secret special access or whatever it is called there, it's even worse

 

[BasilicaLew]

While true I would caution on drawing concrete conclusions.

Intelligence and counter-intelligence are very complex matters. It could very well be just the CIA and Pentagon throwing bait and playing 3/4/5D chess.

Or even if true, it's very simple to conclude that there are multiple levels of intelligence that is available in the US, with each outer layer of intelligence being available to more people. And with each inward layer fewer and fewer people are aware of it, but its also more insightful, useful and more accurate

What I am trying to say, they serve as a good starting point for public discussion but shouldn't be given too much importance imo.
For all we know, even that assessment is quite forgiving and their top secret special access or whatever it is called there, it's even worse

While some of it may be posted to confuse the fake stuff with the real stuff, I don't think the US would want to hype up how strong China is as the US and mostly the defence personal would prefer to avoid war, hyping China up would not serve this well. And the docu on bakumut seems to be real, as it mentions the possible encirclement of it before it even happened. Like, why would the US want China to think they can use the DF-17 to penetrate the US defences, because they said that?

 

[RoastGooseHKer]

Given Lai's statement taking mainland as foreign hostile forces, which is a serious escalation, should we expect another military operation/rehearsal named 2025A coming in days ?!

Here's full version of Lai's speech on 13rd Mar 2025.

I wonder why deep greens like him are so confident about Taiwan successfully achieving independence? Is it because of firm beliefs in assured U.S.-led intervention? Populism alone does not explain why radical DPPs are so confident in achieving what they seek to achieve.

 

[siegecrossbow]

I wonder why deep greens like him are so confident about Taiwan successfully achieving independence? Is it because of firm beliefs in assured U.S.-led intervention? Populism alone does not explain why radical DPPs are so confident in achieving what they seek to achieve.

They did bank on Kamala winning the election so they tend to believe in unrealistic things.