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- Thread starter bd popeye
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The moment China cuts US off, war will begin. It's like with the embargoes on Japan in ww2. Without trade to Asia, US can't sustain itself.
China's problem is low war support. The military isn't getting the spending they need to dominate the US anywhere. It's also dubious if many citizens are committed to fighting. For sure, most are committed in defending the homeland if for example US intends to annex Taiwan, but the attitude of occupying hostile countries is questionable.
The solution I'm hoping for is a delaying action in the Middle East. We need our own version of the Ukraine war to wake up the population and get them to embrace militarism. Iran/Palestine/Lebanon will work as stand-ins. Some PR initiative is already working on equating western crimes on Arabs as similar to Japanese crimes against Asians.
When Trump goes into Iran, it will be possible to lobby the government for a vast increase in spending. At the same time, winding down economic ties with the west frees up manpower, factories and shipyards for war.
We face a difficult fight on the war support front, because despite US' propaganda, US is a far more autocratic state where whatever the government says goes, while politicians in China are responsible to the people, rather than the people blindly following the leaders.
There are no easy solutions, but I think what makes China weak in autocracy also makes it strong when we're fighting for our survival. As you can see in Zhuhai, there's so many brilliant minds who are all able to bring their ideas into reality. This would not be possible in the oligarch run USA, for all the faults of low war support in China, we have a much more incorrupt military/procurement culture. Even if we admire the ability of America to get the people to always quickly tow the government line, we need to remember that this isn't an ability that comes free of cost.
End of the day, I'd rather have the more "independent minded" "cats in a herd" Chinese but able to field the latest technology than have the "spartan disciplined" Americans but being forced to buy DJI and not even be able to audit my own military procurement due to crippling corruption.
"Elon Musk is no Kissinger, but may help improve U.S.-China relations, experts say"
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"Even in such an optimistic scenario, the CCP will still present a real, existential threat to American industry and workers for years to come. And Communist China will still be a more formidable adversary than any the United States has faced in living memory"
Will it differ if its a capitalist democratic CN? If CN still grew that way?
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"Even in such an optimistic scenario, the CCP will still present a real, existential threat to American industry and workers for years to come. And Communist China will still be a more formidable adversary than any the United States has faced in living memory"
Will it differ if its a capitalist democratic CN? If CN still grew that way?
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Wrong. The US is wholly unprepared for war with China at this moment. Sending CSGs into China's A2/AD complex without eroding capabilities would be suicide. They have recognized the circumstances and are actively trying to change that. Hence the battlefield engineering. By cutting off the US, it would effectively kneecap their efforts to prepare for war with China.
Holy shit, and the west tries to claim the Chinese are unable to innovate…sure the Chinese may not have it in them to innovate new genders of categories of weird porn but they sure can innovate new tactics in new forms of war. This is up there with sanctioning US politicians like Pompeo in terms of fucking with the U.S. elites. In the words of Lee Kuan Yew, if the U.S. tries to contain China, China itself will turn around and demolish the US (his words) with a counter containment strategy of its own.
in this supposed projected war of 2027, let me remind all here that war should not be a half arsed affair. The complete and utter destruction of the five eyes and the confiscation of their land, territories and assets should be the baseline goal of the PRC.
War is not the goal, winning is the goal, sometime war is forced upon you, but you shouldn't start wars for war's sake.
Trump, Biden and Obama all ran on an anti-war platform, none of them did, but it goes to show American public does not want war despite manufactured threats, that their wars are forced upon them by their repressive feudal regime, enforced by a police force with license to execute anyone on the spot, not organically.
China should not try to make people want war for war's sake, real support can only grow organically in response to real threats, not manufactured ones. e.g. America's trade wars and naked desire to stop China's development has been far more effective in driving Chinese consumers to support domestic companies than any buy-American push in the US.
By extension real willingness to occupy hostile countries can only by created by the enemy, for that you need an enemy that rejects peace even when losing, not one that embraces it. In America's case, either through their arrogance, or through parasitic control of a uncaring subgroup, they're almost certain to reject peace no matter how bad they're losing, and in this scenario China's need to occupy 5-eyes land will not be up to China.
China's not trying to deter America, China is trying to win. Cutting US off before war start might delay or deter, but keeping their domestic industries suppressed and reliant on China, only to be cut off at the last minute, is how you win.
Very few Americans work in real industry so very few knows just how big a gap there is between the two.
To put things into perspective, my company recently received a quote for a machined part from a local North American company to save a few days of shipping, they wanted $5,000 for rushed 3 day turn. The same part from JLCCNC with 3 day turn plus shipping cost only $20, and the crazy thing is even if we machine the part in-house we'd have to pay more for just the material.