I don't necessarily think so. It's just a question of political will.
Even if you assume 1:1 gdp to warfighting capability between China and US, that still means China can put put 1.3x as much military hardware power. And China has tons of manpower.
In ww2, Japan took Philippines in 1 year, despite bungling the campaign. They took Manchuria (comparable population size to modern Japan) in 5 months. At its peak, Imperial Japan was roughly peer to the United front. Whereas modern China greatly overmatches modern Japan.
A war over Japan and especially over the Philippines needs not necessarily be a long campaign. China's dominant industry means that once the skies are open, they can nearly earmark 1 bomb each for every single person in say the Philippines. It's something even US at its height couldn't do, except for tiny countries like Panama.
Morale will crumple, and it's very likely that a goal target of of 5 months to 1 year can be repeated.
From a perspective of "can it be done", military subjugation of Philippines and Japan is possible, assuming wartime mobilisation by China.
Where it becomes much less certain is if the near peer US can throw 100% of its forces and fully mobilise to stop China in Asia.
From China's side, the current government would forbid it's national power to be used in this way, but we can't know if a future Chinese admin would feel pressed enough that it needs to attack. And in that case, the ability to achieve it is there already.
Neither countries are a threat without the US, it makes no sense to go to war with neither unless US uses them to attack China, in which case the war will still be against the US and Japan and Philippines become a distraction that China should aim to spend minimum effort to neutralize. It's the same as Taiwan, defeat the US and the war ends, its US goal to see China fight their colonies rather than itself and it's China's goal to engage US and only the US.
Which is why PLA exercises are about blockades, not landings. China is in the same position as US was in WW2 watching Japan take over South East Asia. Cutting US off from Asian industry is the same as cutting Japan off from oil, it forces US to enegage a much stronger industrial power across the Pacific, whom they're reliant on, directly, rather than allowing the US gather strength slowly through piecemeal takeover of small nations.
The current goverment will likely define clear objectives and wrap it up at the objective, what we can't know is what a future goverment, made up of people who grew up with embassy bombings and spy plane collisions, will still define the objective to be purely regional, or will it become the permement neutralization of western threat. Chinese history is full of swings between defensive and problem solving.