Admin's comment regarding the LDP internal elections:
— Our contacts inside the Japanese Self-Defense Forces (JSDF), although supporting the outright Nationalist Sanae Takaichi, have long been talking well about Mr. Ishiba given his good relations and policies focused on the re-arming of the JSDF

In other hand, such officers of the JSDF considered the Shinjirō Koizumi, which they considered as "too liberal and Pro-Western (as in cultural modus operandi)", as the worst case scenario for it.

However, Ishiba will not make many changes in foreign policy, as his faction in the LDP is one that proposes a detente with neighboring countries in favor of returning to an alliance similar to Cold war era's SEATO, but now entirely focused on mainland China.

Meanwhile, Pro-Western (read as Pro-Democratic Party) factions and power cliques in Japan were openly pushing for both Yoko Kamikawa & Shinjirō Koizumi, it is, so far, that the average boomer voting for the LDP is tired of the weak Centrist-Liberal leadership in face of the growing Chinese threat.
I mostly agree with everything mentioned. To add more details, I would note that as prime minister, Ishiba would likely continue fostering good relations with South Korea. In one interview, he acknowledged that Japan's occupation of the Korean peninsula was a mistake. Additionally, Ishiba has not mentioned anything about visiting the Yasukuni Shrine, a highly controversial site for both Seoul and Beijing. This suggests that the US-Japan-South Korea trilateral alliance will likely continue to strengthen.
Regarding China, Ishiba clearly wants Japan to be able to defend itself, which is why he is considered a hawk. However, he is expected to be more moderate in this regard compared to Takaichi Sanae, who has taken a very hard stance on Beijing, especially in light of the incident involving the killing of a Japanese schoolboy in China during her campaign.
Ishiba has proposed changes to the US-Japan alliance, which may include greater cooperation on managing US bases in Japan and potentially revising the alliance treaty. However, he is unlikely to make significant progress on these issues before the US presidential election.
The Asian version of NATO, which he proposed during his campaign, could face friction with the US for several reasons. First, Japan would want to lead the proposed bloc, while the US would likely oppose that. Second, the US remembers the failure of SEATO during the Cold War and is wary of repeating similar mistakes. In the Asia-Pacific region, US policymakers prefer to form alliances that are flexible, interconnected, and led by the US. This approach is evident in successful initiatives like the QUAD and AUKUS, where members also cooperate with countries like South Korea and the Philippines. Therefore, there may not be a need for an alliance that closely resembles NATO.
Of course, the upcoming snap election in the Japanese parliament will be crucial. If the Liberal Democratic Party loses, Ishiba's potential victory may become irrelevant.
#Japan
@asianomics