Miscellaneous News

taxiya

Brigadier
Registered Member
Point is look where those Muslim countries voted. Even Iran voted against you. This is supposed to be the global south alliance?
Looking at the history from east to west, we can see that in a civil war between ruling parties and rebels, the vast majority of the soldiers on both sides are the people from the same backgroud, farmers and workers. It means people fighting on the side of the ruling party is NOT on their own side, they are either fooled or forced. This is how many of the YES voters are today.

So I don't really see any point by looking at the vote because the mass do not act on just, right or wrong, not even on their long term interest. In extreme case, people will vote for their own death. Look at how the Germans voted Hitler in power, or how Europeans got into the debt crisis, or how Argentinians voted for the crazy man.

BTW, I won't use the word south in any political grouping because a slave/hard laborour is not the same as fighter/revolutionary.
 
China is clearly upping their nuke arsenal, so no need to worry about that.

As for the threat of US nukes, well, it isn't as big and threatening as people think (unlikely to change the course of war for US).

And there is multiple reasons for this (from what I've gathered, All their minuteman 3 tests in recent decade has FAILED lol, it does really put in question the ability of their landbased nukes.
Sure you can go on with subs, but it still means a big decrease in nukes).

Other than that, there is also missile AD, where we don't know the complete status for China (shouldn't underestimate though).

And well, nukes against cities aren't as effective and destructive as often portrayed (yes, would still result in lots of deaths, but nowhere near fallout levels or even less destructive protrayals).

I think we are not far from an era which US nuclear capability is obsolete. As far as we know, US has no TEL. Their silo based weapons are extremely outdated, most failed last time I checked. Their air defense network is lacking/non-existent. The only good platforms are subs. Once China secures naval supremacy it is over for US. US in current state cannot innovate in missiles anymore. The corruption is too deep. Therefore neither the people nor the atom bomb in US will pose an existential threat in couple years. China will come up on top in a nuclear exchange. Whatever we have lost in the exchange, US will have to compensate. By that I mean all of its territory and its ally's would do.

People can't seriously be under the delusion that there would be a victory in a nuclear exchange between major nuclear powers. This type of thinking is extremely dangerous.

China should never back down to US might. But let's be realistic. China should focus on rapidly strengthening itself for now. And in the meantime, manage the US's decline with diplomacy and guile so that they don't go crazy too soon. China is doing that right now. Weakening the US dollar, it's main pillar of strength, but not too quickly that it creates panic among the US elites.

Best course of action is avoid major military escalations and let the hegemon erode on it's own as it is doing right now.

This is the rational and sound strategy. Military conflict is not in China's interests. The most prudent strategy to manage the risks of military escalation by continuing to build up deterrence and defense capability to increase the cost of war from Washington's perspective while at the same time managing US's relative decline in a stable and predictable fashion so that the US does not fall into a state of desperation. The hope is that eventually a future generation of US leaders will wake up to reality and refocus their attention on developing and building their own nation and improving the quality of life for their own citizens.
 
Last edited:

pmc

Colonel
Registered Member
Arabic =/= House of Saud.
Who is doing the misrepresenting now?
Masjid al-Aqsa was a possession of the Hejazi Sharifs of Mecca. They lost it and never recovered.
Yes it does. House of Saud has crucial role in ensuring existence of current Saudi state and by extension all the developments in GCC countries. I dont like long paragraphs on history. just to mention few things. Saudi-US alliance have played important role in Food Supply, liberation of Muslim countries and things like Suez remain in Arab hands. and it is same Arabs that are ensuring currently that Ukrainian Grain is exported so that price does not rise in global market.
They know there followers. which dont have much thinking power and are irrational by still insisting the a country of barely two million that has nomadic life in desert can withstand European Powers of 19th and early 20th century.
 

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
Among the nuclear triad of the US, their sea leg is their primary and most effective threat. They have the whole Pacific ocean to hide their Ohio SSBNs. No matter how much China could dominate the Western Pacific. Finding any SSBNs there is still a massive challenge. Worse still, the Trident missiles have sufficient range to hit the Chinese mainland even when launched from the middle of the Pacific. SSBNs are the most survivable leg of the US nuclear triad. And let's not forget about the US Navy. China's warplan right now is to defeat the US navy in the Western Pacific, but there are still little follow up plans for the remaining USN ships left outside of of the Western Pacific. The PLAN's current force projection power is still years alway from being able to threaten Hawaii. So it's very ambitious to assume that China can dominate the Pacific Ocean in just a couple of years.

SSBNs are notorious for being hard to find. Not because it's impossible, but because the seas and the oceans are so vast. Even a single SSBN is a massive threat. The US is attempting to box in China behind the 1st Island Chain because it is afraid of China's own SSBN fleet. That is why I feel that China should modernize and expand its own SSBN fleet. For now, TELs are the next best thing, and China was right to invest in them until better SSBNs are deployed. Nevertheless, any SSBN out at sea is still a vastly greater threat than multiple TELs in a limited geographical land area. But no matter what platforms China uses to launch nukes, a more urgent thing to do right now is to expand the strategic nuclear force.

China should never back down to US might. But let's be realistic. China should focus on rapidly strengthening itself for now. And in the meantime, manage the US's decline with diplomacy and guile so that they don't go crazy too soon. China is doing that right now. Weakening the US dollar, it's main pillar of strength, but not too quickly that it creates panic among the US elites.
IDK for China, TELs are extremely survivable due to the terrain. Mountain, jungle, urban region, etc. Even rural road tunnels.

And unlike the sea which has to be actively defended, the land defends itself with cover and simply by being populated. A SSBN can get torpedoed even in the middle of a bastion because the ocean doesn't have any passive surveillance like the land does.

It's the same reason why land based SAMs are so deadly with just a battery of 12 missiles while ships have to have a battery of 100+ missiles and still get sunk or forced to retreat. Cover, concealment, passive surveillance from forward spotters, etc make a huge difference.
 

TK3600

Colonel
Registered Member
People can't seriously be under the delusion that there would be a victory in a nuclear exchange between major nuclear powers. This type of thinking is extremely dangerous.
World do not end when nukes hit. Many will die. The consequences are severe. But end of the day, the war continues. Therefore having a plan to come out on top is important. Ultimately, American nukes are not owned by China, so if they want to use it regardless of consequences, there better be a good answer from China.

One day, the naval supremacy will be so lopsided that US subs are tracked right out of the base. This is not far fetched given the lopsided industrial difference between the two. It is one economic collapse and one arm race away from being viable.

This is the rational and sound strategy. Military conflict is not in China's interests. The most prudent strategy to manage the risks of military escalation by continuing to build up deterrence and defense capability to increase the cost of war from Washington's perspective while at the same time managing US's relative decline in a stable and predictable fashion so that the US does not fall into a state of desperation. The hope is that eventually a future generation of US leaders will wake up to reality and refocus their attention on developing and building their own nation and improving the quality of life for their own citizens.
That is not happening. Not unless a civil war happen first. Then you either get multiple nuclear rogue states, or a new Caesar going full fascist on the world. At that point China might need to directly intervene on US soil, a bigger trouble than just camping submarines.
 
Last edited:

Sardaukar20

Major
Registered Member
IDK for China, TELs are extremely survivable due to the terrain. Mountain, jungle, urban region, etc. Even rural road tunnels.
Correct. TELs are very suitable for China's terrain and doctrine. Nevertheless, they are still limited by geography. The enemy could estimate the likely launch points in China and attempt to nuke those areas to make them as inaccessible as possible.

And unlike the sea which has to be actively defended, the land defends itself with cover and simply by being populated. A SSBN can get torpedoed even in the middle of a bastion because the ocean doesn't have any passive surveillance like the land does.
An SSBN can indeed be sunk by a single torpedo. But the enemy has to find it first. In the vast seas and oceans, that is very challenging indeed. TELs can hide in terrain. But SSBNs hide in the seas. China has to use a bastion to cover it's current generation of SSBNs. But when China's next generation of SSBNs are available, their deployment could be much more flexible. Either deployed in a Bastion, or sail and hide alone in the oceans.

It's the same reason why land based SAMs are so deadly with just a battery of 12 missiles while ships have to have a battery of 100+ missiles and still get sunk or forced to retreat. Cover, concealment, passive surveillance from forward spotters, etc make a huge difference.
SAM batteries are smaller on land because of the limitations of the transport carrying them. It also helps that land-based SAMs can hide in terrain. But they can be just as easily destroyed if found.

Ships carry lots of missiles because they can. Unlike land vehicles who can resupply relatively frequently on land. Ships could not resupply as often as sea. So they do need to carry more weapons to maximise their staying power at sea. But ships are still not submarines. They are surface vessels, and they can be found much easier than any submarine.

Looking at the bigger picture, I still think that China need a sizable SSBN force. If the US knows that there are Chinese SSBNs out at sea, it would understand that no matter how badly the Chinese land-based nukes and airfields were hit, their SSBNs are still lurking out there to exact the ultimate revenge.
 
Last edited:
Top