For Russia if the war would end today it would have won already a tremendous strategic win. All cost are negligible compared to what Russia have won.
Demographically:
You can see that Russia has received 1.2 million Ukrainians that will join Russian society without any cost since they know language, culture and everything. Indeed I personally know some of them from the family of my wife.
Also, in the "new regions" 2.2 million of Russian passports were created as of September 2023
So, Russia has right now around 3.4 million more citizens that it had before the war started. And citizens that can integrate in a blink, not central Asians that has more difficult with the language.
It was estimated that half million Russians leave the country on 2022, but of them apparently half have returned. So Russia has lost 250 thousand people.
The difference is 3.4 million minus 0.25. So far 3.1 millon win for Russia.
Mediazona (a western organization) counted that as of 2023 Russia suffered 75 thousand casualties. You can multiply for 2 or 3 if you wish as a security factor, but in anyway I think the big picture is clear.
Russia now has around 3 million more citizens than before the war
Economically:
Russia Central Bank lost 300 thousand million dollar that are freeze (and will be seized by the West). This is of course a lost.
On the other hand many western business have lost their assets for a penny. For example Renault sold Lada group to someone in Russia for 1 dollar. McDonald closing all its restaurants only to be replaced to an identical russian product (whose benefits will remain in Russia).
Besides this we can see that after a drop of 2% in 2022, Russian economy grew 3.6% in 2023. And it is in the track of growing 3.2% in 2024.
But this does not give all the image. Russian PMI has been systematically very high during all 2023 and 2024. Indicating a big industrial expansion.
This is driven by the war effort, but that does not matter since the investment go to the overall economy. Expansion of production capacities means expansion of all the supply chain, and many of that supply chain also serve Civil Business. Indeed most of the Russian MIC also produces civilian staff.
Then, Russia lost the european market. But as a european I always find very strange the Russian association with Europe. I am spanish myself but I have lived in Germany, Norway and now Switzerland. The dislike about Russians (you could call it russophobia) of Germans and Norwegians is blatant.
So, specially with Germany Russia was providing cheap gas and cheap metals to a country that basically disdain them. Cheap resources that helped Germany to be richer and see Russia over the shoulder, as well as pay good salaries and "steal" Russian population in the form of immigration.
In my opinion for Russia to sell staff to Germany was like to be addicted to tobacco. Gives you short term gratification and kill you in the long term.
Now, Russia lost German market, but as a result Germany is suffering a very big industrial blow in the worse moment, when they need investment to try to compete with China.
Many companies in Germany are closing, or reducing size, specially in the tremendously important auto sector.
On the other hand, Russia will eventually replace Germany with China and with its own increased internal consumption (due to industry grow). Sell things to China is far better for Russia that to sell things to Europe.
Being realistic the main interest for Russia is Europe to be poor and weak, nor rich. I think this conflict woke up the russian leadership in this aspect. They were too idealistic with such absurd idea of "a common space from Lisbon to Vladivostok" of Gorbachev. I always found funny such idea.
Also, Ground regional product of the new regions have to be counted as a win for Russia. Doneskt oblast for example have a estimated GRP of 7.8 million dollars. This will probably grow after integration into Russia.
As a example the Crimea GRP grow from 2 billion before annexation to around 7 billion now.
A similar grow will send the GRP of Donekst to 20 billion. Together with the other regions let say 40 billion extra GDP for Russia per year. In around 8 years all financial lost of the seizing of its assets is compensated.
Politically:
There is an obvious consolidation of Russia as state both in the elite level as well as in the average person level. Like it or not, and agreed or not, but Russians think that they are the moral side of this conflict and that they are in the good side of the history against Western imperialism.
This result in a increase in national pride, that you can check in the increase of interest in both Russian Empire and Soviet Union, as well as a renew appreciation of polemic figures like Ivan IV and Stalin that are very associated with state building of Russia.
Internationally:
The things that are called a blow to Russia are the next. Finland/Sweden NATO accession and Armenia pro western way.
I find this laughable.
Finland and Sweden were "de facto" NATO countries. Their leadership and elite was totally anti Russian before. Much more indeed than NATO countries like Spain, Portugal or Italy.
To pretend that something has changed with their "official" accession is absurd.
Armenia. Yes, a "historical Russian ally" taking over by NGOs and headed to destruction. It has a population of 2.7 million. 0 natural resources. 0 industry. 0 strategic interest.
What have Russia won?
To start with, now she knows where she stand in the world, with whom to count and which whom not. No more sanctions to North Korea to please US, no more sanctions to Iran to please EU.
Relation with both countries have solidify and both countries has a lot to offer Russia (and Russia to them).
Before the war all the "enemies" of the West were pretty divided.
Now Russia and Iran has a free trade agreement, they are closed to a military alliance. Iran has 80 million very educated people, a big industrial base, enormous natural resources.
North Korea can supply Russia with many basic industrial staff for a penny, and Russsia supply NK with knowledge, petrol, gas, etc.
Some Russian regions already hire packages of North Korean work for construction instead of hiring Central Asians that are far more problematic..
Also Russia has succesfully portrait itself as a fighter against Western and european imperialism. This resound specially in Africa. Also there Russia is kicked France badly, in a far more important region than Armenia.
For Russia to help countries to get indepencence from France is crucial since it will weak France economy, and also open new markets for arm exports.
Military:
Nobody serious anymore pretend that Russia is weaker than before. Most prestigious western analyst from RUSI to the US publications agree now in what is obvious.
Russia is stronger, with more combat experienced, their MIC supercharged and improved, etc.
Also the strategic situation of Crimea far improved, now they have redundant ground supply lines, that seems tremendously imporant taking into consideration the difficulties of ships and the vulnerability of a bridge in case of a major war in the region
