The War in the Ukraine

blackjack21

New Member
Registered Member
I do not want to sound like the Russian version of a NAFO fella that hyped up Javelins, Excalibur shells and leopards as game changing but some upcoming game changing weapons for Russia will soon extensively be used in the battlefield.

  • T-14 Armata as quoted by the head of Rostec is too expensive to use in the battlefield so it wont be used in the operations.
  • 57mm Derivation on an April 8 2024 source stated they are doing everything they can to get these systems to battlefield(sounds like it has high importance) They are like Pantsir systems but shorter range versions of them with shells that can engage cruise missiles, drones and helicopters and shells that can deal with armoured vehicles from 15kms away. Uses optics and radar to engage targets.
  • Koalition-SV howitzers entered service but mentions what the numbers are, its production per month or the production of special longer range krasnopol shells for it.
  • EW systems for persone, equipment and drones are shown to be extensively used.
  • Cage layouts and turtle tanks to deal with drones
  • February 2024 Telegram source states Hermes is going to be put into service in the coming months. Think of these 100km missiles as mach 3.8 drones engaging armored vehicles or helicopters and than imagine it got improved as Klevok-D2 with twice the warhead weight as mach 5-6 drones with more range as its future development down the line
  • Pantsir production got doubled accroding to the Russian General's annoucnement with the latest SM version announced with it and the 48 quad missile design to deal with cruise missiles, MLRS rockets, ATGMs and drones. two versions of S-500 systems to come this year into service.
  • A lot of news recently of their different ground drones being used in the battlefield with machine guns, explosives, EW systems and demining purposes.
  • Kurganets-25 and Boomerang IFVs that have increased survival against drones with newer armor and EW systems. 3 days ago they are being put under tests on the training grounds.
  • TOS-3 with EW systems, newer ammunition and a further range in development for large range area destruction.
  • Tornado MLRS production on full blast since 2022.
  • Increased production in rockets, missiles, shells,glide bombs, drones and military equipment as war continued
I think western journalists have stopped interviewing Ukrainian soldiers after this.
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We lost five people for every one they did,” said Ihor, a 30-year-old platoon commander who injured his back when the tank he was riding in crashed into a ditch.
Ihor had no military experience before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24. He made a living selling animal feed to pig and cow farms. His replacement as platoon commander also has no previous military experience, he said.

Oleksandr said the Russian artillery fire was relentless. “They were just hitting us all the time,” he said. “If we fire three mortars, they fire 20 in return.”


This was when Ukraine was given over a million shells from the US alone besides Europe and as of now the stocks are nearly out, Europe is having difficulty finding shells and the shell production rate is still rather low. So what has Ukraine done to ensure their own survival or what has the west done to ensure their survival? When this conflict started to become longer than expected Russia took measures to ensure longer survival for their troops. The only thing I think Ukraine has done for their increased chance of survival was laugh at the cages Russia was using to only use them to some degree later. There is literally nothing in this weapons package Ukraine is receiving is anything new from what they have used before to improve their survival.

When Russia bombed an airfield in Lviv, a few days later news reports came out of Ukrainian military officials downplaying the F-16s before they even got them. And Putin was interviewed what happens if a 3rd party country was hosting Ukrainian F-16s and he stated those airfields would get destroyed with missile strikes. There are conditions that F-16s can land on roads but Eastern Europe or rather Ukraine does not have the best roads to do this before they get trucks with fuel and ammunition to them before they fly off again.

So, what we are looking at is the same spending with the same kind of equipment and possibly another failed spring 2023 counteroffensive set for 2025 according to multiple sources which is assuming Poland and Lithuania's defense ministers find enough Ukrainians to get sent back to Ukraine. Anyone have a convincing argument Ukraine will win the war at this point?
 

Atomicfrog

Major
Registered Member
Anyone have a convincing argument Ukraine will win the war at this point?
It's all about the definition of that win.

1) If win the war is pushing the Russian back home ? No... will not happen.

2) If win the war means Ukraine remaining an autonomous country ? No... will not happen, Ukraine is a broken state at this point and i'm not even sure if they have a word to say in stragegic decision making. They are now crushed by debt and will be a leech to Europe just to keep the undead state in some sort of order.

3) If win the war means Ukraine remaining a country ? Yeah it could happen but it will be in an horrible broken state, it will need to make hard concessions but also strongly blunt Russian advances.
 

SolarWarden

Junior Member
Registered Member
It's all about the definition of that win.

1) If win the war is pushing the Russian back home ? No... will not happen.

2) If win the war means Ukraine remaining an autonomous country ? No... will not happen, Ukraine is a broken state at this point and i'm not even sure if they have a word to say in stragegic decision making. They are now crushed by debt and will be a leech to Europe just to keep the undead state in some sort of order.

3) If win the war means Ukraine remaining a country ? Yeah it could happen but it will be in an horrible broken state, it will need to make hard concessions but also strongly blunt Russian advances.
What is a win for Russia after the cost of men and equipment? Keeping the land they currently occupy? Would that be considered a win for them?
 

taxiya

Brigadier
Registered Member
What is a win for Russia after the cost of men and equipment? Keeping the land they currently occupy? Would that be considered a win for them?
Keeping Ukraine out of NATO, acting as a buffer zone, making sure destruction happens outside of Russia instead of Russian soil. Same as US fought its wars on foreign soil.

You would have to ask the same questions about the decades of American wars in Afghanistan, Iraq, Vietnam, Korea etc. after the cost of men and equipment.
 

Tam

Brigadier
Registered Member
Some of the strikes on Slavyanskaya TPP-2 were for the two S-300 systems located there.

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Damaged to the TPP-2.

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Bridge that supplied heavy weapons and supplies to Chasiv Yar on the Ukrainian side is destroyed. Said to have used a Smelchak on it.

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This appears to be one of those Western SPGs but under heavy camouflage. Destroyed by a long range precision arty strike, perhaps a Krasnopol M2. In Konstantinovka.

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Air strikes north of Arkhangelskoye. These are positions where the Ukrainians retreated.

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Ukrainian BRMD-2 hit by a Lancet.

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Ukrainian Kozak and BTR-4 found destroyed.

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Lancet hits on Ukrainian vehicles. Too small and blurred to make out accurately but they appear to be on truck chassis. Possibly supply vehicles.

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A successful assault on a Ukrainian trenchline in the Kharkhiv region happened. The assault was accomplished with two Desertcross 1000 ATVs.

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Ukraine sent marines to capture some uninhabited islands in the Dniepr for another PR stunt. Unfortunately for them, the Russian Marines of the 61st were already there.

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Another air to air ram taking down and capturing a Baba Yaga.

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Gerans attack the infrastructure on Sumy. Electricity and water supply has been cut off in the city.

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Bukovel AD EW station hit by a Lancet.

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Tam

Brigadier
Registered Member
Last video was taken in Kupyansk and also took out two tanks by Lancet. This from the 1st Tank Army.

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Also from the 1st Tank Army, bombardments on Ukrainian hideouts in Kislovka.

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Ukrainian vehicle, unidentified, takes a direct hit from artillery. The fate of the vehicle is clear.

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More pics of the Slavyanskaya TPP. Confirms damage to at least one of the turbines.

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Ukrainian Akasya SPG taken out in counterbattery.

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ATGM takes out unindentified Ukrainian vehicle. From the height it looks like an air strike but it's from high ground.

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Ukrainian APC is taken out by Lancet.

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Russian casualties are dropping to the lowest since the SMO. BBC figures using its Mediazona agents. This is lower since Avdeyevka. The highest peaks were last in 2023 when Wagner was taking Bakhmut.

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Artillery hits Ukrainian positions in the Gulyaypol area in Zaporyzhye.

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France sends troops to Slavyansk according to Asia Times. Likely the French Foreign Legion. Russians waste no time in striking their positions. Russian VDV claim to encounter highly trained troops in Chasiv Yar.

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LMUR hits a Ukrainian command post in Prechystivka.

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The 238th takes out another M777 this one in Illinka.

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The building in Germany that builds the GMLRS and Iris-T needs to be demolished after it was burnt.

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