Japan economics thread.

Minm

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Japanese yen weakens to 160 against the U.S. dollar for the first time since 1990​


India's GDP could overtake Japan's this year.
According to the IMF, Japanese GDP is estimated to be 610,401.28 billion JPY and India's GDP will be 326,932.38 INR. India will pass Japan if the rupee reaches an average above 1.867 yen. It's currently at 1.87, so there's a good chance of Japan falling to number 5. Finally, there's the UK with 2,749.30 billion pounds. If GBP/JPY rises by another 15%, the UK will pass Japan as well

Japan's economy might recover some dynamism, but it will not be a great power this century
 

gadgetcool5

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According to the IMF, Japanese GDP is estimated to be 610,401.28 billion JPY and India's GDP will be 326,932.38 INR. India will pass Japan if the rupee reaches an average above 1.867 yen. It's currently at 1.87, so there's a good chance of Japan falling to number 5. Finally, there's the UK with 2,749.30 billion pounds. If GBP/JPY rises by another 15%, the UK will pass Japan as well

Japan's economy might recover some dynamism, but it will not be a great power this century
Interesting, Japan passed the UK in 1967 during a pound crisis of the Harold Wilson government, which cost them the election in 1970, and ultimately, required an IMF bailout. Since PPP was rudimentary at the time, it was a sign that Japan had become the world's second largest economy in the capitalist bloc and had "arrived". Falling back behind the UK would be a seminal moment for Japan.

Of course, now that we have PPP it is less important than before. India surpassed Japan a long time ago, thanks to its population size.
 

Randomuser

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View attachment 124478
So apparently this is another reason JP markets have risen so much. This makes sense since many people from asia were going to Japan for holiday that time because the yen was weak so things were cheaper. Not because Japan magically became better. Having a weaker Yen doesn't make the best signs that Japan is returning to its prime.

This is why you should not take western analysis seriously without deeper checking. They have a conclusion first which is China bad, and bend all facts or analysis to reach that conclusion. If you follow that, you will overlook the real factors. Just like how USA claims China is collapsing coz its nominal GDP is not reaching USA despite the main factors being foreign exchange (CNY is kept low on purpose) and inflation.
I knew weak yen was a factor in why Japan's numbers "look" good. But damn I didn't expect the Yen to be THIS weak now.

Reality is even more crazy than what I can propose.

Well maybe not as crazy as all those guys who still slurped up westoid media bs on how Japan is returning to it's prime. Wonder how those guys feel? Or will they as usual run away and pretend they never said this?
 

jli88

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According to the IMF, Japanese GDP is estimated to be 610,401.28 billion JPY and India's GDP will be 326,932.38 INR. India will pass Japan if the rupee reaches an average above 1.867 yen. It's currently at 1.87, so there's a good chance of Japan falling to number 5. Finally, there's the UK with 2,749.30 billion pounds. If GBP/JPY rises by another 15%, the UK will pass Japan as well

Japan's economy might recover some dynamism, but it will not be a great power this century

Indian GDP even at current exchange rates has probably already overtaken Japanese GDP (Indian GDP has a healthy nominal growth, while Japanese GDP still has only a 'mid' nominal growth). Such a major thing!

Though, obviously much richer per capita, and still quite far ahead in terms of overall industrial strength.

Japan is a HUGE flashing red warning for China, I am glad that Chinese leadership let the property bubble correct. I just hope they also realize that one of the major reasons of Japanese stagnation was also structural --> low fertility and births leading to extremely lopsided demographics, low demand, low innovation, high complacency.
 

Wenren

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Interesting conspiracy theory mentioned in John Auther's column today in Bloomberg:
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non-paywall version:
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16f14a9e.jpg

Personally I think it's a tad too conspiratorial because the weak Yen is wrecking havoc on its citizens who are seeing a huge drop in living standards and are becoming increasingly unhappy with the LDP. This could see the LDP lose 2/3 majority or even simple majority in general elections that must be called by mid-next year.
 

jli88

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Interesting conspiracy theory mentioned in John Auther's column today in Bloomberg:
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View attachment 128825

Personally I think it's a tad too conspiratorial because the weak Yen is wrecking havoc on its citizens who are seeing a huge drop in living standards and are becoming increasingly unhappy with the LDP. This could see the LDP lose 2/3 majority or even simple majority in general elections that must be called by mid-next year.

It is conspiratorial for sure, I think they might have desired some weakening, but not this much. Also weakening of the currency so quickly doesn't help. Wild currency movements don't change the basic industrial structure of a country overnight. Yen at 160 depreciated by around 15%!

Regarding LDP, there's growing chorus regarding change of government. Even LDP supporters are dissatisfied and are finding fringe parties to vote for.
 

henrik

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It is conspiratorial for sure, I think they might have desired some weakening, but not this much. Also weakening of the currency so quickly doesn't help. Wild currency movements don't change the basic industrial structure of a country overnight. Yen at 160 depreciated by around 15%!

Regarding LDP, there's growing chorus regarding change of government. Even LDP supporters are dissatisfied and are finding fringe parties to vote for.

Changing parties is not going to change their economic prospects, as China provides very strong competition in semiconductor and EV industries over the next couple of years. Japan currency will crumble even faster.
 

Wenren

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Changing parties is not going to change their economic prospects, as China provides very strong competition in semiconductor and EV industries over the next couple of years. Japan currency will crumble even faster.

Agree. But it will shift their political landscape and possibly foreign policy. The collapse of Japanese purchasing power is accelerating with the weakening yen and opening stress fissures in their society. A lot of the cheques Kishida wrote in Washington may end up bouncing.
 
The US is different than Japan because actually, they don't even theoretically need any 'real' buyers of their bonds, as the FED is the biggest end-game buyer (gov. extension).

Before that, they would likely force their commercial banks to buy more bonds, and in the last step, the FED just prints money and finances their bulging fiscal deficits entirely.



US-treasury-holdings-2023-07-18-TIC-Total-percent-of-debt_.png






They will continue to serve it until they can't anymore and then will just collapse.

That point is when the FEDs print enough dollars into circulation to cause hyperinflation.

(Way above the external 'demand' for them, so the RoW can't 'absorb' their inflation anymore entirely).

That would just pour gasoline over already the pretty fiery internal socio-political situation, and then the US would disintegrate.

Where is the guarantee that the US has to exist forever? Nothing exists forever.




Yeah, they can likely do a few symbolic 0.25 or 0.50 rate cuts, but they fundamentally can't defeat inflation anymore, judging by the data and common sense.

So, that means that their interest rates will always need to stay relatively high. They need to balance economic slowdown in activity and inflation concerns (stagflation).

Same story with USD. It will depreciate once the interest rates are lowered.
US issued credit cards are also selectively limiting where it can be used. I am no longer to utilize it on select vendors overseas whereas I was able to before, Transactions are being denied for fairly normal transactions. It is being denied for transactions for discount fare on non-USD and non-US airlines and even on some coffee shops. WTF.

Time is dump USD as it depreciate and it loses it's utility.
 
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