Chinese Economics Thread

[tphuang]

China's import/export figures from April vs 2023.

Big increase here in trades with Latam, especially Brazil. Trade surplus vs Africa also shrunk big time.
Imports from Russia continue to increase while exports are down.
running a trading deficit vs Korea and Japan again.
still larger surplus vs ASEAN countries
Vietnam is the biggest gainer in there

 

[gelgoog]

Big increase here in trades with Latam, especially Brazil. Trade surplus vs Africa also shrunk big time.

I would have to assume that as Chinese investments into mines in Africa come online, China starts importing raw materials from Africa.

Imports from Russia continue to increase while exports are down.

My guess is the exports came down because of difficulties with processing payments due to US sanctions on Chinese banks. China needs to fix that if they want export growth to continue. Most Russian importers will be small and mid sized companies and they use commercial banks.

Most imports from Russia are raw materials. They are made by just a couple of players. In some cases these companies even operate their own banks. So I am fairly certain it was much easier to solve payment problems there.

running a trading deficit vs Korea and Japan again.

I doubt this will continue long term though. China is moving up the value chain. Korean/Japanese intermediate products will continue to drop in terms of demand. But this will take time. Maybe a decade.

still larger surplus vs ASEAN countries
Vietnam is the biggest gainer in there

 

[bebops]

Vietnam and Mexico are just China's reexport hubs into U.S to avoid tariffs.

Basically China just shipped 90-100% of the finished products to Vietnam, then put on a Made in Vietnam or Mexico label.

 

[interestedseal]

View attachment 129354

China's import/export figures from April vs 2023.

Big increase here in trades with Latam, especially Brazil. Trade surplus vs Africa also shrunk big time.
Imports from Russia continue to increase while exports are down.
running a trading deficit vs Korea and Japan again.
still larger surplus vs ASEAN countries
Vietnam is the biggest gainer in there

Export to EU+US accounted for less than 30% of all Chinas exports. Also surprisingly China’s export to GDP ratio (which measures export dependence) is only 20%, lower than 156 countries out of 193 countries, also lower than world average of 30%. Thus, exports to EU+US make up just 6% of China’s gdp, about the same amount of its annual increment.

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[henrik]

I would have to assume that as Chinese investments into mines in Africa come online, China starts importing raw materials from Africa.


My guess is the exports came down because of difficulties with processing payments due to US sanctions on Chinese banks. China needs to fix that if they want export growth to continue. Most Russian importers will be small and mid sized companies and they use commercial banks.

Most imports from Russia are raw materials. They are made by just a couple of players. In some cases these companies even operate their own banks. So I am fairly certain it was much easier to solve payment problems there.


I doubt this will continue long term though. China is moving up the value chain. Korean/Japanese intermediate products will continue to drop in terms of demand. But this will take time. Maybe a decade.

Exports to Korea and Japan would indicate weak currency in those countries, rather than value chain related.