Chinese Economics Thread

tphuang

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China's import/export figures from April vs 2023.

Big increase here in trades with Latam, especially Brazil. Trade surplus vs Africa also shrunk big time.
Imports from Russia continue to increase while exports are down.
running a trading deficit vs Korea and Japan again.
still larger surplus vs ASEAN countries
Vietnam is the biggest gainer in there
 

gelgoog

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Big increase here in trades with Latam, especially Brazil. Trade surplus vs Africa also shrunk big time.
I would have to assume that as Chinese investments into mines in Africa come online, China starts importing raw materials from Africa.

Imports from Russia continue to increase while exports are down.
My guess is the exports came down because of difficulties with processing payments due to US sanctions on Chinese banks. China needs to fix that if they want export growth to continue. Most Russian importers will be small and mid sized companies and they use commercial banks.

Most imports from Russia are raw materials. They are made by just a couple of players. In some cases these companies even operate their own banks. So I am fairly certain it was much easier to solve payment problems there.

running a trading deficit vs Korea and Japan again.
I doubt this will continue long term though. China is moving up the value chain. Korean/Japanese intermediate products will continue to drop in terms of demand. But this will take time. Maybe a decade.

still larger surplus vs ASEAN countries
Vietnam is the biggest gainer in there
 

interestedseal

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View attachment 129354

China's import/export figures from April vs 2023.

Big increase here in trades with Latam, especially Brazil. Trade surplus vs Africa also shrunk big time.
Imports from Russia continue to increase while exports are down.
running a trading deficit vs Korea and Japan again.
still larger surplus vs ASEAN countries
Vietnam is the biggest gainer in there
Export to EU+US accounted for less than 30% of all Chinas exports. Also surprisingly China’s export to GDP ratio (which measures export dependence) is only 20%, lower than 156 countries out of 193 countries, also lower than world average of 30%. Thus, exports to EU+US make up just 6% of China’s gdp, about the same amount of its annual increment.
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henrik

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I would have to assume that as Chinese investments into mines in Africa come online, China starts importing raw materials from Africa.


My guess is the exports came down because of difficulties with processing payments due to US sanctions on Chinese banks. China needs to fix that if they want export growth to continue. Most Russian importers will be small and mid sized companies and they use commercial banks.

Most imports from Russia are raw materials. They are made by just a couple of players. In some cases these companies even operate their own banks. So I am fairly certain it was much easier to solve payment problems there.


I doubt this will continue long term though. China is moving up the value chain. Korean/Japanese intermediate products will continue to drop in terms of demand. But this will take time. Maybe a decade.

Exports to Korea and Japan would indicate weak currency in those countries, rather than value chain related.
 

jli88

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What the hell are you even saying? There is no such thing as a nominal growth rate in RMB; that's called PPP growth. Nominal growth is in USD. And yes, as China leaves the fast and dirty phase for the high tech high income phase, the growth cannot be 8-10% like before

Nominal "growth" may even be negative if the currency conversion is reduced by more than the PPP growth; it doesn't matter. It just means that China wishes to export more and import less.

You keep calling other people dumb and ignorant and what not. While you confidently state there's nothing called nominal growth rate in local currency. Unfortunately I am not good at calling people names.
 

Serb

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You keep calling other people dumb and ignorant and what not. While you confidently state there's nothing called nominal growth rate in local currency. Unfortunately I am not good at calling people names.

There is nominal growth rate in local currency but it is completely irrelevant thing, it is just a number we need to use to get the GDP deflator and the real gdp growth number of that year. That's it's only use lol.

You are just diluting the quality of this thread by bringing irrelevant and incomprehensible information, perhaps with malicious intent. Go and post something useful and important, and make it make sense please.
 

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
You keep calling other people dumb and ignorant and what not. While you confidently state there's nothing called nominal growth rate in local currency.
Exactly what @Serb said. I admit, I took the definition of nominal GDP as what you were using it for in the original low quality post #31,071 and did not venture to apply the different meaning which you had swapped to in your replies. And I'll admit again, most of that is because my usage of "nominal" in economic terms, is the value of the economy converted to USD, as it pertains to post #31,071 to which I was responding. However, another part of it is because I thought you were staying on topic and continuing what you were saying, while in actuality, you had jumped ship, failed to continue the conversation and were talking about something else, and therefore, the meaning of "nominal" had changed without any indication.

That said, even though I had made the mistake, I still addressed what you were saying in my post. I quote:
"And yes, as China leaves the fast and dirty phase for the high tech high income phase, the growth cannot be 8-10% like before."

But while my responses are always point-to-point, your response is empty and meaningless and addressed nothing except the one mistake I had made after 2 other posters had already done so. The rest of my rebuttal, you have no answer to.
Unfortunately I am not good at calling people names.
Or making arguments either.
 
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Serb

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In how many of the US so-called "allies" China has more investment realistically now yearly (FDI too, not just BRI infrastructure construction)?

The US likes to pretend that they are the top dog, and have a gazillion "allies" on "Chinese doorsteps", but that's the pipe dream.

So what else can they offer them so they really become allies in reality, not in their dreams? (If they wake up and realize their true standing)

Some democracy/ideological bullshit, or bad-mouthing and inflating the threat of China (who is their biggest investor and trade partner)?

China is already the biggest trading partner and infrastructure provider to the RoW. However, soon it will also be in mfg. investment everywhere.
 
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