Taiwan considered purchasing the Abrams to replace their Pattons but has now decided instead to upgrade their Pattons from 105mm to 120mm, which is still concerning because 120mm is dangerous. They're given on the Abrams purchase for now but there's still a solid possibility that the ROC will get them eventually. I doubt the PLA would've been that short-sighted to tailor an entire AFV program for a theatre whose balance-of-power could shift with a single foreign purchase or a fleet-wide upgrade program. China certainly cares about the Taiwan situation but they usually spend their money on solutions that the enemy cannot counter easily, e.g. mass FAC attacks which, to this day, the USN still finds daunting, AShBMs which are all the rage these days in media headlines, world's fastest-swimming amphibious AFV whose merits are only further accentuated by improving PLAN ship-bombardment capabilities, etc.
It's more likely that the PLA did not target a specific theatre and more just identified a general requirement for a sub-50t tank for use in situations around the country where MBTs mightn't be able to reach in militarily-significant numbers. The Tibetan plateau, Yunnan-Guangxi jungles, and anywhere that might need rapid aerial reinforcements could be potential areas of service. If ever it came to an invasion of the ROC by the PLA, and the ROCA is still using 105mm Pattons then sure, the ZTQ can come along for the ride. However, if the ROC implements fleet-wide 120mm upgrades or purchases the Abrams, which is very possible, the ZTQ has no place in an assault on Taiwan.
It wasn’t just because of price that the Abrams deal fell through. Taiwan is wet, hot and have a lot of terrain that heavy MBTs like Abrams would simple bog down in.
The same would go for the PLA’s 99s and 96s.
The PLA would no doubt bring their 96s and 99s in any Taiwan scenario, but a lot of the terrain would simply not support those tanks.
China knows very well the value of mobility and being able to cross territory your opponent could not.
Just think back to the Korean War, where light PLA infantry were able to outflank and cut off retreating American columns that were limited by terrain to the few main roads able to support their armour and transports.
The new light tank is no supposed to be the battering ram that the likes of Abrams and 99s are. What they are supposed to do is allow the PLA to outflank and cut off enemy forces limited by their own weight to the main roads.
Time would be of the essence for China in a Taiwan scenario, and that is precisely what the light tank focuses on. It’s oversized engines are good for speed as well as slopes.
They are intended to race ahead to outflank and cut-off enemy formations so to fundamentally weaken their resolve and fighting ability to set up easy, quick crushing victories for the battering ram of PLA 99s and 96s; they will also be expected to strike rapidly to capture key crossroads, bridges and other natural chock points to both cut-off retreating enemy forces, but also to secure those to allow the PLA heavyweights to use them to press ahead.
These were never supposed to do the same job as heavy MBTs any more than 022s were designed to do the job of 055s.
The fact that they can go toe to toe for Taiwan’s MBTs is a massive bonus, but all it’s other qualities and advantages as listed above does not go away even if Taiwan does manage to scare up some Abrams.
Rather than try to take those on directly, the light tanks would simply outflank any Abrams lines by crossing terrain the Abrams are too heavy for, and cut off their supply lines.
Good luck trying to hold a line against PLA 96s and 99s with no resupply of fuel or ammo and potentially have the new light tanks attack your line from the rear just as the PLA main force hits the front.
