I think it's important to not equate SSK to SSN. The threat level posed by Japanese subs and American subs are really not in the same order of magnitude.
Yuan subs are essentially good for just ambushing against US Navy btw.
Yuan Class AIP & Kilo Submarine Thread
- Thread starter Jeff Head
- Start date
I think it's important to not equate SSK to SSN. The threat level posed by Japanese subs and American subs are really not in the same order of magnitude.
Yuan subs are essentially good for just ambushing against US Navy btw.
I'm not equating SSK with SSN. They're nothing comparable. I'm just compiling the threat. We have to recognise the threat Japanese SSK present to PLAN surface vessels just like Chinese SSKs are to USN surface vessels.
There is no perfect ASW and even less understood how well it all works during actual war. Not much point building up a sizable fleet if you don't have near perfect and resilient ASW.
It will be trivial to add mine/torpedoes to the network.
The underwater sensor network can have active sensors.
Presumably, China maintaining a large workforce and equipment for building SSKs at the new Wuchang yard (Built quite recently) would likely mean they'll continue to build and maintain their SSK fleet for the foreseeable future. Wuchang is not suitable for nuclear boats due to its location but mainly due to how shallow the Yangtze river is hence limiting the maximum size of submarines Wuchang can build.
Type 041 SSK-N project at this point is likely dead, domestic rumors have died down already while Wuchang haven't had any followup tenders for new boats of the class for years. JN was rumored to build Type 041s but turns out all the submarine and nuclear tenders were in fact for Type 09X not JN's Type 041 lead boat. So IMO, the PLAN conventional submarine fleet's future is likely to stay at the same approximate size but with more modern submarines replacing the Song and Kilos still in service.
I do wonder if there are any plans to replace the 039A/B/C class entirely or is PLAN satisfied with 039Cs for the foreseeable future.
Type 041 SSK-N project at this point is likely dead, domestic rumors have died down already while Wuchang haven't had any followup tenders for new boats of the class for years. JN was rumored to build Type 041s but turns out all the submarine and nuclear tenders were in fact for Type 09X not JN's Type 041 lead boat. So IMO, the PLAN conventional submarine fleet's future is likely to stay at the same approximate size but with more modern submarines replacing the Song and Kilos still in service.
I do wonder if there are any plans to replace the 039A/B/C class entirely or is PLAN satisfied with 039Cs for the foreseeable future.
plawolf
Lieutenant General
SSKs are not the only thing China’s inland shipyards like Wuchang could work on. UUVs would be the obvious pivot, and as with all unmanned platforms, the quantity would almost certainly vastly surpass manned platforms they are meant to supplement and/or replace.
The other obvious option would be for the likes of Wuchang to build modules for 09X and maybe even 095/6s that could then be shipped by barge to JN or HLD for final assembly.
Either way there are plenty of options to keep the yards plenty busy without additional new SSK orders.
If the PLAN shift to nuke boats is as big and rapid as it appears, there is actually a fair chance we will see a rapid winding down of its SSK fleet to redeploy their skilled crews to man the newly produced fleet of SSNs.
Wuchang has also produced Corvettes in recent years as well.
---
China already has a total of 60+ submarines in service.
Even if China were to add 6 new submarines per year, then to crew these submarines, they could draw upon the top 10-15% of existing personnel. That is a manageable number to add every year, and it would be beneficial to have a larger pool of existing experienced submariners to draw upon.
So I think they will keep the Yuan and Song SSKs until they reach the end of their service lives, as they are still useful.
Note the first Song SSKs will be retiring anyway, as they are over 25 years old.
Maybe I should do this as well but without getting my arse busted. A few years ago I travelled to Nantong with a few hiking buddies. We got two tents and slept in the hanger for the ex-Soviet carrier Minsk. Except, we all got our arses busted by the local police and had to delete all of our pictures and Douyin dancing videos. I guess we drank too much and made too much noise on the bridge when filming Douyin posts. They only let go after we each paid fine. They also confiscated our tents and hiking equipment but let us keep our phones and other electronics (after ensuring all pictures/Douyin posts were deleted). Well stupid us
! Anyway it was great the see the ship again before the bridge got burnt down. I first travelled onboard that vessel as a child on my dad’s shoulder when it was a theme park in Shenzhen. When I returned in 2023, lots of the leftovers from the theme park along with the original Soviet equipment were still onboard.