Jura The idiot
General
a minute ago I read
but forgot who's who in the meantime, sorry
Yemen Crisis/Conflict & the "Decisive Storm" Coalition
- Thread starter Jeff Head
- Start date
a minute ago I read
but forgot who's who in the meantime, sorry
ShahryarHedayat
Junior Member
Jura The idiot
General
ShahryarHedayat
Junior Member
Self Delete
plawolf
Lieutenant General
The key to any war, be it conventional or irregular, is logistics.
In that regard, the conflict in Yeman does not favour the Houthis/Iranians at all.
There is simply no way to reliably resupply the Houthis unless Oman allows it and jumps in bed with Iran, and that is never going to happen, so even if Iran wants to intervene directly, it could not do so in any meaningful way.
Without outside resupply, all the Houthis will have are the arms and supplies they currently hold now, plus anything they can capture or manufacture themselves.
Needless to say, those factories and stores for weapons and war goods would be a top priority for the Suaid led air strikes, so expect those sources to be destroyed or depleted soon.
That means that the Houthis are at their peek now, and it will only get harder for them as their weapons and supplies are consumed by battle and attrition.
With no reliable means to replace those expenditure and losses, their efforts are doomed to failure.
In every single successful insurgency campaign, the rebels/insurgents had material support from neighbouring countries, which almost always include foreign personnel, be it in the form of combatants and/or trainers and advisors. Without that outside lifeline, there is nothing to fight with even if you had the manpower and popular support of the population.
With that in mind, I think the ultimate outcome of this conflict is already decided, the only real question left now is the cost and duration.
Now, please bare in mind that the above is based on the assumption that the Saudis, their coalition partners, and the presidential faction of the Yemeni forces they are supporting are all fairly competent, on side and committed to seeing this thing through.
If they make a hash of the war campaign, have secret Houthis sympathisers amongst their own ranks, and/or loose the will to fight after suffering some casaulties, well then they can still loose this.
But I think the key here is that the Saudis and their partners hold enough cards to be able to determine the ultimate outcome.
If they can conduct a fairly competant military campaign and have the political will to see it through despite the inevitable losses, then there is only one way this thing can end. Its not a guaranteed victory, but is the best anyone could reasonable ask for.
In that regard, the conflict in Yeman does not favour the Houthis/Iranians at all.
There is simply no way to reliably resupply the Houthis unless Oman allows it and jumps in bed with Iran, and that is never going to happen, so even if Iran wants to intervene directly, it could not do so in any meaningful way.
Without outside resupply, all the Houthis will have are the arms and supplies they currently hold now, plus anything they can capture or manufacture themselves.
Needless to say, those factories and stores for weapons and war goods would be a top priority for the Suaid led air strikes, so expect those sources to be destroyed or depleted soon.
That means that the Houthis are at their peek now, and it will only get harder for them as their weapons and supplies are consumed by battle and attrition.
With no reliable means to replace those expenditure and losses, their efforts are doomed to failure.
In every single successful insurgency campaign, the rebels/insurgents had material support from neighbouring countries, which almost always include foreign personnel, be it in the form of combatants and/or trainers and advisors. Without that outside lifeline, there is nothing to fight with even if you had the manpower and popular support of the population.
With that in mind, I think the ultimate outcome of this conflict is already decided, the only real question left now is the cost and duration.
Now, please bare in mind that the above is based on the assumption that the Saudis, their coalition partners, and the presidential faction of the Yemeni forces they are supporting are all fairly competent, on side and committed to seeing this thing through.
If they make a hash of the war campaign, have secret Houthis sympathisers amongst their own ranks, and/or loose the will to fight after suffering some casaulties, well then they can still loose this.
But I think the key here is that the Saudis and their partners hold enough cards to be able to determine the ultimate outcome.
If they can conduct a fairly competant military campaign and have the political will to see it through despite the inevitable losses, then there is only one way this thing can end. Its not a guaranteed victory, but is the best anyone could reasonable ask for.
ShahryarHedayat
Junior Member
Gaza is under total blockade from any direction by Israel and Egypt
And Israel 5 time Totally destroyed Gaza's military /civilian infrastructure
So....Can you tell me ,How Iran managed to arm and fund The Hamas and Islamic Jihad against the most powerful military in Mideast?
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Red : Al-Qaeda + Ex-president Hadi suporters +Southern separatist
Green : Houthi + Yemeni Army + Ex-president Saleh suporters
Black : ISIS
What is yellow?
plawolf
Lieutenant General
Gaza is under total blockade from any direction by Israel and Egypt
And Israel 5 time Totally destroyed Gaza's military /civilian infrastructure
So....Can you tell me ,How Iran managed to arm and fund The Hamas and Islamic Jihad against the most powerful military in Mideast?
Because the Egyptians are not as committed to the blockade as the Israelis would like.
There is a lot of sympathy towards the Palastinians both officially and amongst the rank and file troops who man the crossings and patrol the boarders, so there is a great deal of looking the other way.
Do the Omanis hold a similar view towards the Houthis?
ShahryarHedayat
Junior Member
In fact
The former Commander of the armed forces ( now president) Sisi , has cracked down on Palestinian groups and listed Hamas as terrorist organization
Oman's boarder control forces are very weak compare to Egypt border guards and There is no functional Omani intelligence agency
I should add That The Oman's monarch owes his very existence on Iran's support for crushing the Omani revolution 1976
because of that Oman does not act against the interests of Iran