Ok here's few things that come in to my mind...
firstly...
NK soldiers can't be that well trained, most of them are conscripts
As a former conscript myself, I found that sort of comment very absurd and even offensive. Conscription as a system have nothing to do with the level of training. There are several cases where armies with coscription systems have prooven to be better trained, motivated and skilled than their opponent proffesional armies. Only thing that the conscription affects is the overall military budget and with NKs case, I doupt it would have any difference to the general fighting ability wheter there are conscripts or proffesional soldiers behind the outdated equipment.
What matters is the motivation. We really don't know just how good it is in the NK as hardly anyone from the outside world have ever had the change monitor it. I personally belive that it's far more higher from those estimations presented in this thread earlier. The closed sosiety with practically no channels to outside world can make quite remarkable things to the general peoples thinking. To regular Norht koreans the outside invasion might be as a shock as if the people from Mars would suddenly attack earth...and the reaction to that would be quite similar as well; You fight to your death against these alien invators...So I quess the moral is actually quite high. But will it last? Thats another thing and we will return for that question later on...
If the PLA were to invade, overcoming resistance would be an easy job.
Even more stubidier comment than the last one. If the undenyably greatest power at the moment, USA is itself afraid to attack DPRK, what makes you think that China can do it with her left hand??
I'm sure all of you are aware the rough estimations of military power of North Korea. The quality is low and severly outdated but the quantity is huge. There are, as someone already said, a million mens in the arms. And I belive that their fighting spirit is at high standpoint. So in the paper it looks quite ernourmous task, don't you think? So now is the time to look the attacker, China...
...It doesen't require much time to figure out that the PLA is actually suprisingly similar as it's opponent in this hypotethical scenario. High quantity, but rather low quality. Yeas, the spearhead of PLAs latest equipment is far sharper than the DPRKs, even closing the level of other great powers like USA and Russia. But the vast masses are actually remarkably similar to the DPRKs troops. And we are now still talking about equipment solely. How about doctrines, strategies and tactics?
First we look DPRK...
It's main task is without a doupt to attack South Korea and thus it's main forces are located in the south borders. But don't let that fool you, troops moving in such small country isen't so hard task and adopting defensive warfare is quite easy, it's the natural way of fighting and is actually far more easier to adjust to than the other way around (from defensive force to offensive one) History has shown it working several times. With the huge ammount of mens, the ability to have reserve flanks after reserve flanks (eg. area defence doctrine) is quite appealing. It would effectively cut down the ability from the opressor to conduct deep strikes to the heart of the defenders and thus trying to gain advantage. The abcent of modern technology isen't great consern at all, in defence warfare it's almoust irrelevant. To defeat the DPRK is only possiple with using the US style "new blitzkrieg" type of tactics which is depentable form undisturped communications and co-operation of all branches participating to the attack. Is PLA at the moment able to conduct this type of warfare??....
....No
Like I said earlier the vast masses of PLA is still desperetly outdated and based on the idea of "people's war" which equals mass casualities and unability to perform any realistic military manuvres in modern battlefield. Just look at the general strcuture of PLA: main unit is still infatry division which mobility ends to trucks and leather personal carriers (boots, mean walk) Support units relies on old generation towed artillery which abilty to cope the demands of highspeed modern warfare is basicly as good as standart infatry soldier supposed to walk the destination...nil...
There is improvements in the PLA structure, the introduction of the mechanised brigades for example and the relatively good spearhead of tanktroops. Tough even the spearhead is lacking compared to the setted standarts. The developtment of artillery haven't walked the same line as the tank development. There are only prototypes of modern type of SP guns being introduced and the towed artillery is even in worst condition. There's no APU fitted guns in service nor computerized aiming or navigating devices. The "weakest link" principle aplies the operational effectivity of armed unit like fish swims in the ocean; The division or brigade is as good as it's weakest fraktion. It wont help you if your tanks are state-of-the-art if your artillery is about two generation behind.
I'm not going to go too deeply to the other branches of war, like airpower and naval forces. The PLAAF certainly have both quantitical and quality advantage over DPRK, but it's not able to perform such a large scale air campaing as required in this sort of conflict.
So is that sufficient for the invasion of DPRK? How good is the interactivity and joint operation of these forces? How well is the overall idea of combined arms- type of warfighting adopted in the army?
At the moment PLA is noway near the level that it could perform such a huge offensive war against such a potent opponent as DPRK. In fact I strongly belive that not even the all mighty USA and it's huge military power could do it. Invading countries isen't easy task and if the opponent is acutally fighting back (unlike in some of the latest wars) it's basicly what it's supposed to be all along...a war...
I said something about the morale of the DPRKs troops...about could it hold after the agression starts?
The "blitzkrieg" type of warfare that USA and it's allies performed in the first gulf war was major factor for the morale to break down among the Iraqi troops. The effective destruction of communications and the huge speed just mentaly overhelmed the enemy. As the PLA is clearly not able to conduct that type of warfare, I doupt the morale of the opponent would denegrate. In fact when the attacker is facing dificulties, the morale of the defenders usually rise. It gives the defender a hope that the enemy is debeatable and urges them to fight harder.
....but....Like i've said millions and millions times now, there is no need to drop ash upon you or letting the little dragon inside you to burst out in front of my obinions I've just maded. They are only my own assumptions based on the facts (all facts, not just those you wish to see) and my own comprehension of modern warfare. You are free to disagree and in fact I would like to hear anyones points if they have come to somewhat different conclusion. Also I strongly belive that the chinese military might is rapidly going for the direction where it may be able to perform such a operation like this "DPRK invasion"...it just isen't there yet...
