World non-renewable energy discussion

tphuang

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tphuang

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The price of Urals, the oil traded in Europe, went over the price cap. It is now trading at 65 USD a barrel. So much for the oil price cap.
ESPO, traded in Asia, never went below the price cap either.
the funny part is that we now have a fleet that don't use European insurance anymore. Once BRICS develops its own insurance company for shipping oil, Lloyd of London can kiss its monopoly goodbye.
 

tphuang

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There seems to be some cooperation bw TotalEnergies & China.
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In this case, they sign on to oil pipeline project from Uganda to Tazania. Remember, there was that LNG deal at SHPGX and also other items signed on Macron visit

China continuing to sign up to these long term LNG contracts
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there is also the news of Sinopec acquiring 1.25% of a mega LNG project in Qatar

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Looks like major Chinese oil companies are back to purchasing Russian crude. Not just the teapot refineries anymore.
China's overall Russian crude imports, including pipeline and ships, rose to a record 9.61 million tonnes, or 2.26 million barrels per day (bpd) in March, customs data showed on Friday.
As for the teapots, well they imported Russian Arctic, Iranian & Venezuelan. 4.2 million is almost 1 million bpd from just Russian Arctic, quite a bit
With the return of big buyers, price-sensitive teapots are looking for alternatives such as Russian Arctic grades, Iranian and Venezuelan oil.
Shandong province, home to most of the teapots, imported a record 4.2 million barrels of Varandey crude from the Russian Arctic in March, Kpler data showed, as
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the oil out.
Keep in mind, Iranian oil is cheaper than Russian oil
Iranian oil for June-arrival is priced at a discount of about $11 a barrel against ICE Brent futures, slightly cheaper than Urals, traders said

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looks like utilization rate up all the way around even with some scheduled maintenance

Increased exports in diesel and jet fuel for March. They are making a lot here
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tphuang

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Two interesting bloomberg articles here showing how Qatar is having trouble finding buyers for its NG on long term contract. This imo is going to accelerate the push from Middle Eastern countries to find solutions to transition from fossil fuel.

It will be interesting to see how China plays this. It will have access to cheap Russian gas as well as many long term contracts already signed. But it will just have less need for thermal power in the future. Natural gas still has a lot of demand in China in heating & industrial sector. I'm not sure how much additional NG it really needs. Although I guess it can just fully replace coal in many cases. And then China locking in long term contract kind of allows it to control LNG market for the global south
 

luminary

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In its new medium-term
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on oil that came out last week, the International Energy Agency predicted China may be planning to really become the world's fuel supplier after European and U.S. refiners shut down their facilities under the weight of ICE phase-out mandates or convert them to biofuel production plants.
China overtook the United States to become the world's largest refiner last year, the IEA also noted in its report, but it is not stopping there. Instead, refiners in China are building even more capacity, with the total set to reach 19.7 million barrels daily by 2028. Of this, more than 3 million barrels daily will be spare capacity, the IEA said.
China is going to become the world's refiner. The size of its exports will depend on what the ruling party decides should be exported. And this means that China will have its hand on the global fuel price lever the way OPEC has its hand on the crude oil price lever.
"Crucially, our forecast for product balances is heavily dependent on higher Chinese product exports, especially for diesel."
 

luminary

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India makes another own goal.

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Indian buyers will actively look for purified terephthalic acid from alternate sources after the Bureau of Indian Standards import certification norms set in from June 22, leaving Chinese supplies out of reach, sources told S&P Global Commodity Insights this week.

China has been one of the largest suppliers of PTA to India as domestic demand in the country continues to grow with local production unable to cater to the increasing consumption trends, traders said.

From January to April 2023, India imported around 543,060 mt of PTA of which 336,953 mt, or around 62% was from China alone, data from India's Department of Commerce website showed.

Suppliers in several other countries such as Taiwan, Indonesia, Thailand and South Korea have procured the certification, sources said.

India may turn to South Korea: "Seems like lots of Korean traders are hearing inquiries from India," a PTA producer in South Korea said.

While the Indian market may seem a lucrative option, suppliers in South Korea are not too excited with the prospect of catering to India's PTA demand. South Korean producers may not have the capacity to supply to India at the moment. Also, supplying to India may mean sacrificing on other export markets such as Turkey, US or Europe, a trader in South Korea said.

And with US and Europe markets not getting South Korean supplies, they will turn to China instead, the trader added.

The recent developments have not flustered Chinese producers much, a PTA producer in China said.

"I think the BIS extension [not coming through] has little effect," the producer said, while adding that it was expected by the market.

Market participants also said that China could sell South Korea its PTA, which could then be diverted to India.
 
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