What is left for Russia to export to China?

In general, what is left for Russia to export for China? Some tech transfers will continue, but is there much left in Russian arsenal or potential future arsenal which would be in Chinese interests? And connected to this, as Chinese government seems to have about as much moral scruples selling weapons as Russian government, when will Chinese weapon exports overtake Russian exports?

Mvh,
Jon K

Naval weaponry and equipment and Su-33Ks...at least untill we see a chinese GB warship with completely domestic kit and chinese first naval carrier jet...

But it will decrease, becouse in almoust every field, china has atleast domestic project with prototypes to make it more homemade than it has used to be. Also, the Russian weapon makers should really need strong russian forces to keep the demand up so that they can effectively compeat with the others. Simply export markets arent going to fund the next generation of russian weapons.

Jon K said:

In general, what is left for Russia to export for China? Some tech transfers will continue, but is there much left in Russian arsenal or potential future arsenal which would be in Chinese interests? And connected to this, as Chinese government seems to have about as much moral scruples selling weapons as Russian government, when will Chinese weapon exports overtake Russian exports?

Mvh,
Jon K

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Land Force:
Not sure really - China never did import that much in this area.

Air Defense:
So, there is another 8 S-300PMU2 battalion order. After that, there is the S-400 system and the S-300V. At this point, I think there is still possibility of another purchase toward either S-400 or S-300V, especially since China needs to develop a NMD system. How far the domestic system in HQ-9 has come in ABM capability is unknown, but I would think not as much as S-300V. Tor-M1 discussions pretty much ended for good a few months ago. Buk-M1 has never been in consideration.

Air Force:
Transport/Tanker - I still think China will eventually settle on IL-76 or one of the large Antonov transports for another order before their own large transport gets developed. Clearly, the existing IL-76s are needed to be converted into KJ-2000, so they do lack large transports. And H-6U is not really ideal as the tanker.
AAMs - can't see any future purchases here.
Ground attack munitions - again, can't see any future purchases here unless for su-30s
Fighters - I think they might go ahead with upgrading some of their existing flankers. I don't think it makes a lot of sense for them to purchase su-34/35 at this point, since the domestic J-11 projects seem to be finally bearing fruits.
Bombers - Unless it's Tu-160, I doubt there will be anything. China clearly has no interest in Tu-22M and Tu-95
Avionics - Possibly upgrading su-30 with Irbis (as mentionned in JDW a while back)
Engine - Possibly another AL-31 order after this, but it really depends on how well WS-10A is going. I think RD-93 is definitely stopping after this first 150 engine order.
Helicopter - possibly some more sales of Mi17 and Mi-26, but that's about it

Navy:
Submarines - looks like they are not interested in any more Russian subs. Amur was offered, but it seems like China is more interested in their own next generation SSK. Nuclear sub technology could be one area where China gets help from, but it's not clear how much such technology have been offered.

ASW/Torpedo - They will need more Ka-28 until Z-15 naval version or the 10 tonne helo is ready. Yu-6 finally seems to have achieved a certain level and the imported Test torpedoes seem to not be used on any of the domestic submarines. I think that's a sign of the confidence to Yu-6. Be-200 order was mentionned last year, hasn't mentionned more since, but I think it will go through, since they need a replacement for SH-5.

Destroyers/Frigates - No more orders imo, although possibly upgrading the first two Sovs to using the later versions of Moskit and shtil.

Other ships - Possibly a replenishment ship or hospital ship. But Zubr orders are going through imo.

Aircraft Carrier - some assistance on Carrier operation and parts needed + a couple of su-33s, I don't even think they will extend the order to 14.

Missiles - Not more AShM, they had problems firing klub according to a recent article I read. The Russian SAMs are not likely to get any orders since HH-9/16 seem to be standard for future Destroyers/frigates.

Jon K said:

In general, what is left for Russia to export for China? Some tech transfers will continue, but is there much left in Russian arsenal or potential future arsenal which would be in Chinese interests? And connected to this, as Chinese government seems to have about as much moral scruples selling weapons as Russian government, when will Chinese weapon exports overtake Russian exports?

Mvh,
Jon K

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Just off top of my head, space program related materials/technology, heavy transport aircraft, heavy helicopters, heavy bomber, submarine technology, etc.

The Russians also have some nice missile technology. I doubt they'd export ICBM tech, but defensive systems like the S-300VM, S-400, or even A-135 is possible. The ABM-3/A-135 is a bit dated, but still effective versus lesser nuclear threats.

I'd like to see the PLAN acquire some Russian ASW related technology, but that's been previously discussed in the naval forum.

I also think the PLA should try and join the PAK-FA project as a partner to provide funding in exchange for some technology transfer and share in building components, like what the US did with the F-35.

adeptitus said:

Just off top of my head, space program related materials/technology, heavy transport aircraft, heavy helicopters, heavy bomber, submarine technology, etc.

The Russians also have some nice missile technology. I doubt they'd export ICBM tech, but defensive systems like the S-300VM, S-400, or even A-135 is possible. The ABM-3/A-135 is a bit dated, but still effective versus lesser nuclear threats.

I'd like to see the PLAN acquire some Russian ASW related technology, but that's been previously discussed in the naval forum.

I also think the PLA should try and join the PAK-FA project as a partner to provide funding in exchange for some technology transfer and share in building components, like what the US did with the F-35.

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:roll: Maybe Russia can cooperate with Chinese design bureaus on future cutting edge research, but China doesn't need what Russia can offer now and in fact has said "No" too many times. Except the short list given by TPHuang.

PAK-FA is supposed to be significantly heavier than F-22, which is in turn significantly heavier than J-XX, sort of like an FB-22. So maybe there is room for a Chinese version of PAK-FA in the future. A heavily multirole aircraft to supplement the air superiority dedicated J-XX.

They have decades of experience in military technology in areas where China is only taking it's first steps or hasn't begun to attempt. These are mainly naval, carriers and submarines and strategic aviation, I doubt that China could develop a heavy bomber without talking to the gentlemen at Tupelov.

Even when China has developed it's indigenous technology to a greater extent, it would probably be wise for them to keep close relations with Russia, even buying Russian equipment or using Russian componentry. Suppose in 10 year's time Chinese engineers working on a major defence project find themselves trying to solve a problem beyond their experience, but which Russian engineers solved before? It's best to keep all your options open in case of such an eventuality.

Neutral Zone said:

They have decades of experience in military technology in areas where China is only taking it's first steps or hasn't begun to attempt. These are mainly naval, carriers and submarines and strategic aviation, I doubt that China could develop a heavy bomber without talking to the gentlemen at Tupelov.

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The Chinese have the been making good use of Russian experience since the end of the Cold War. That was then, and this is now. All the experience has been absorbed. What little Russia has that China hasn't learned, Russia keeps to herself.

Neutral Zone said:

Even when China has developed it's indigenous technology to a greater extent, it would probably be wise for them to keep close relations with Russia, even buying Russian equipment or using Russian componentry. Suppose in 10 year's time Chinese engineers working on a major defence project find themselves trying to solve a problem beyond their experience, but which Russian engineers solved before? It's best to keep all your options open in case of such an eventuality.

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That's generally true for everybody. Even the USA, sole superpower at operating carriers, could conceivably gain some benefit from working with French or Japanese engineers. But it doesn't mean that the USA needs such help from French or Japanese.

But that's quite a different thing from importing entire systems or even importing major components. Those days are over, period. (Except for the short list provided by TPHuang.)

You always get something working with a different set of minds. Both China and Russia have the insular development mentality. It really needs to be opened up to maintain pace with the west in the long run. Russia doesn't like to think it needs anything from just recently a 3rd world country, and China isn't eager to contribute its latest know-how to Russia either. At least in semiconductors China has a lot of design and fab ability that I don't see Russia as having.

If China and Russia can develop free knowledge collaboration with one another, it can be very powerful since both the populations like to support military projects.

Realism aside, perhaps on the wishlist: plasma stealth, arena, some of the new Russian anti-tank munitions

That's a good list tphuang has made. But China ever bought Mi26?

Also, there are some land warfare systems clearly have russian influences, they may be continued with russian help to some extend. zbd97 IFV, PLZ05 SP artillery, A100 MRLS.