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TerraN_EmpirE

Tyrant King
Part 2
20 years later. ACR wasn’t the result of the M16 suffering but rather an attempt to try and solve training and human limitations problem with a rifle. They wanted the rifle to allow the soldier in combat to somehow shoot like he was at a range. A 200% better preference vs M16A1. So they tested a number of concepts & found that not a one meet the goals. The ammunition & rifles worked just couldn’t improve over AR15 enough to just.

Objective Individual combat Rifle XM29 came about looking at the idea of computerizing the soldier’s weapon. A gun that does it all. HK & ATK won. The Army had a strict set of objectives. Technology was not ready yet. They could make the system but it was heavy and clunky. They had designed four parts. The Rifle was a modified then new HK G36C, The grenade launcher was derived from an experimental HK CAW , the Ammunition. The optic was a variable powered day and night ballistic computer camera with range finder. The Army found it was way too heavy so they decided to split it up thinking at a later date they would recombine them. The optic grenade launcher and ammunition became the XM25 which fell apart due to HK Germany and ATK.
The Carbine became the XM8. This was being pushed by PEO soldier systems as a replacement for the M16A2. It was intended to come in a number of configurations: PDW, Carbine, DMR and LMG. With a grenade launcher option. It was supposed to be lighter more reliable, more modular. It came with its own optics either a red dot with lasers in either IR or visible. Or a 3x power.
The selling points, low profile return to zero optics mount PCAPS, modern optics, a fully automatic trigger group, fully ergonomic controls, folding stock and a significantly reduced weight.
It’s failures were out of the XM29 HK & PEO were out on a limb. The Infantry school wrights the requirements for infantry weapons and XM8 didn’t have a writ. A open bidding process had gone forward for XM29 but not XM8. So any award they hadn’t opened a competition. The intended configurations also overlapped existing, fairly new, established and successful weapons. The M4, M4A1, Mk18. Well the LMG configuration of the XM8 was generally inferior to M249 and combat experience would push the DMR to a heavier caliber. The Grenade launcher XM320 could easily be and was mounted on M4.
XM8 optics and integrated lasers were of lower quality. The PCAPS system was proprietary to HK. Ergonomics of M4 acceptable and was easily improved. The M4A1 had a fully automatic trigger group. M4 had an adjustable stock already folding wasn’t needed. Finally HK wasn’t able to get significant weight savings vs M4 without sacrificing durability.
Everything the XM8 offered was matched 1:1 by M4A1. The few areas where XM8 was better weren’t enough to justify the expense.

LSAT wasn’t actually a replacement for M16 or M4 but M249. PEO Soldier asked the infantry school Ft Benning if they felt M8 would meet a doctrinal need. They got back that what was needed was a lightweight replacement for M249 Saw. The Army created the Lighteeight Small Arms Technology program they set to an LMG and Ammunition as light as possible. The Cased Telescoped Light Machine Gun at 9.8 pounds & created new ammunition types studying caseless telescoped ammunition & polymer cased teliscoped ammunition. Were a 5.56x45mm configuration. Later they developed a 7.62mm cta. However this only seems to have been a technology study. Although a derivative was offered by Textron for the NGSW if was dropped.

SCAR program. Us SOF units attempted its own program to replace M4A1 as well as adding requirements for a 7.62x51mm Battle rifle, 7.62x39mm rifle & Grenade launcher module. The reason behind the 5.56x4m carbine portion was issues Socom units were having with M4A1. They operated the M4A1 in a manor more like an LMG than a carbine resulting in premature barrel failure. Basically they were mag dumping. Assault rifles are designed for occasional mag dumps but are meant mostly for semiautomatic fire or very short bursts. When Socom tested the Mk16 Scar they found the weapons were not that great with no substantial improvement vs M4A1 farther by the point Socom, the Army and Colt added a heavier barrel to the M4A1 and the issue was resolved. The Mk16 was dropped. The 7.62x39mm died, The Mk13 grenade launcher was more trouble than it was worth. The one version that stuck the Mk17 is primarily as they didn’t have a 7.62x51mm selective fire rile in the arsenal that wasn’t M14.

Individual Carbine circa 2011. Frankly this was the Army just doing a survey to see what was new for M4A1 as a potential upgrade and what was on the market for assault rifles and ammunition. They had just gone through multiple evaluations with Congress members making noises. Army opened the doors and let industry show & Tell.
Once the M855A1 ammunition was dropped in the 5.56x45mm versions same as XM8 nothing was offered that wasn’t available in M4A1.

M27 well it did replace M16A4 in the infantry rifle squad of the USMC. Though it was a bit underhanded in how. It started as an Infantry automatic rifle program and was adopted but the Marines who it seems just didn’t want the Army’s M4A1.

2017 Interim Combat Service Rifle. This lasted maybe a couple months. It’s aim was to introduce a rifle to fill a perceived gap. As the intermediate caliber 5.56x45mm even the latest M855A1 was deemed under powered vs the proliferation of Level 4 equivalent body armor part of the Army advocated for adopting a 7.62x51mm rifle as an interim step until the next generation of combat weapons.
This was cancelled as Procurement office felt that the NGSW would IOC before ICSR would be needed.

2017 Next Generation Squad Weapon. That brings us to today. Selected April 2022 XM5 Sig Spear and XM250 Along with the 6.8x51mm round. Production is on as the protest by Lonestar Future weapons was withdrawThis got as far as it has due to the fact that first, Unlike XM8 the weapon doesn’t overlap in capabilities vs M16 and M4 which are inherently limited by the ammunition of the weapon. A 5.56x45mm round fired from
Any military spec rifle will always be operating within that ammunition’s performance envelope. Other aspects of the rifles though interesting wont justify the cost of replacement without a significant improvements in performance. Finally what likely pushed NGSW over the line was the XM157. It allows the Infantryman to take advantage of the capabilities.

That ends our M16 replacement section.
 

TerraN_EmpirE

Tyrant King
Finally the conclusion.

I think I know what you meant by AMSTOL HLVTOL was a study into a heavy lift aircraft however it was just a study nothing came of it.

Now overall here are my points. First in all a case by case has to be seen into the circumstances that have taken place where in a decision was made to cancel or develop an alternate.
The US DOD despite what many in this community seem to think actually does do it’s homework and an Analysis of alternatives.
In many cases the choice to cancel a systems like the RAH66 or EFV was made after the Doctine around it was questioned and found wanting. On top of cost and delays.
In others like the Abrams TTB and CATTB. Crusader, F22, Zumwalt and Sea wolf. Classes a strategic change transpired redirecting the resources of the DOD as congressional action took place. In many cases these have resulted in a penny wise Pound foolish position in the long run.

Only a few programs have been absolutely cancelled without question due to inability to perform to contract or cost. XM25 as HK, ATK and the US Army had a falling out. The Army still wants an XM25 like weapon but has to start from scratch.
The MBT70 where in the price had not just ballooned but farther the two parties and complexity of the issues were so fundamental that they were literally arguing over inches to centimeter conversions.
ARH70 which was cancelled as the program was under an extremely strict budget and it had been the alternative after cancellation of Comanche.

These three are the reasons, I don’t believe that we will have a “Super Black hawk” procurement.
Fundamentally if a product cannot meet the mission need but has been cancelled then the Army’s track record is to maintain what it has modify to bridge if possible and start fresh if needed.
MBT 70 failed the Army tried to relaunch it as XM803, it again failed. The Army started over.
It looked at what went wrong evaluated to see if the doctine was sound made corrections where needed and developed the the XM1. In the interim Army maintained the M60A3 it didn’t buy Chieftains to gap fill or buy a whole new fleet of M60s.
FCS MCVs same deal when it was found unrealistic they looked at if they could salvage it set aside what they felt was sound and set to study alternatives. Puma and Namer were looked at but not up to what was wanted. GCV, To heavy to far in the opposite direction. OMFV and then redrafted OMFV

The US Army has a large number of UH60M, UH60L and we can add the UH72A, UH72B to that as well. If the Valor is delayed then fine. The H60 and H72 will continue operating. They won’t waste money buying more of them, unless something happens that doesn’t allow them to be maintained.
That’s the reality of programs like the F15EX. It has nothing to do with the F35, it was because the F15C/D fleet has been flown to the point the wings are coming off. The USAF has walked back F15EX number likely in part as they feel the NGAD will fill out the rest.
As it doesn’t seem like we will find ourselves back in 1990s peace dividend of peacekeeping “low intensity conflict” due to the lack of a pacing threat. We are likely to see more higher end capabilities pushed. The doctrine calls for V280.
Seawolf/Virgina, NATF/A-12/Super Hornet, F-22, F-35, AMSTOL, Zumwalt, EFV/AAAV, multiple efforts to replace the M-16, and no doubt many other programs.
SSN(X) a Seawolf successor calls for deep sea high torpedo model of the Seawolf, Next Generation Air Dominance the very name describes what F22 was in the 1990s, F35 modernization, FVL CS4 and CS5, F/A-XX an NATF successor, Light Amphibious Warships to bridge the gap between the larger ships and landing zones allowing ACV to land, M5 and M250.
 

Lethe

Captain
You have given my off-the-cuff post far more consideration than it deserved and I appreciate the extensive reply, particularly regarding the M16 as I tend not to pay much attention to firearms. In any case, I certainly cannot claim any deep knowledge of the challenges ahead for the V-280. I am skeptical of how the program will play out because the kinds of programs that are most successful are those that are mild to moderate iterations on existing platforms or existing capabilities: CH-47F, C-130J, Super Hornet, Virginia. Where things often seem to run off the rails is when you have a program that is (a) a significant step-change from existing platforms/technologies/concepts and (b) intended to be acquired in large numbers as to replace an existing "core" platform or capability: LCS, F-35. Fortunately, as we have both suggested, the saving grace for V-280 is that any problems can be mitigated by ongoing Black Hawk production (which is what I meant by a "Super Black Hawk" program, not something derived from the pusher-prop demonstrators).

P.S. By AMSTOL I meant the
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program that was intended to replace the C-130. Instead the C-130 soldiered on and eventually became the C-130J Super Hercules.
 

sheogorath

Major
Registered Member
Honestly, I cannot see how 1000 long-range low-observable missiles per year would be considered low? Depending on the variant, they can have a range of nearly 2,000km.
In the context of the amount of missiles used in a a near-peer war like the one iUkraine which alredy uses such numbers in spent missiles, it seems low for a planned war with China which will be far larger and require more extensive use of missiles due to the location.
 

Sinnavuuty

Senior Member
Registered Member
Found this for the LRASM/JASSM. An expected increase to 1100 missiles per year or 91 per month

Seems rather low.

In terms of orders, the USAF purchased this amount of JASSM:
ma.JPG
1,100 JASSM/LRASM represents double or nearly triple the USAF's previous annual orders. Including the LRASM which was being ordered at around 48-64 annually, under any and all metric is a huge increase in capacity.
 

sheogorath

Major
Registered Member
If you are at the bottom of a 60ft pit and you climb 30ft, you aren't as deep, but you are still in a pit, thats my point. For the current near-peer war seems adequate but for a shooting war in the Pacific against an adversary like China and the distances involved seems low.
 

TerraN_EmpirE

Tyrant King
You have given my off-the-cuff post far more consideration than it deserved and I appreciate the extensive reply, particularly regarding the M16 as I tend not to pay much attention to firearms. In any case, I certainly cannot claim any deep knowledge of the challenges ahead for the V-280. I am skeptical of how the program will play out because the kinds of programs that are most successful are those that are mild to moderate iterations on existing platforms or existing capabilities: CH-47F, C-130J, Super Hornet, Virginia. Where things often seem to run off the rails is when you have a program that is (a) a significant step-change from existing platforms/technologies/concepts and (b) intended to be acquired in large numbers as to replace an existing "core" platform or capability: LCS, F-35. Fortunately, as we have both suggested, the saving grace for V-280 is that any problems can be mitigated by ongoing Black Hawk production (which is what I meant by a "Super Black Hawk" program, not something derived from the pusher-prop demonstrators).

P.S. By AMSTOL I meant the
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program that was intended to replace the C-130. Instead the C-130 soldiered on and eventually became the C-130J Super Hercules.
Blackhawk production will continue for some time but where is in question. As the US moves forward and the last of existing orders are made it’s likely the production facility will shift. Blackhawk has the US line and the Polish line. As more orders are export oriented the latter due to the lower PPP makes more logic to be maintained like the restarted F16 production moved from the Government factory in Texas (A Union workforce) to the South Carolina plant (a Right to work state). If such a shift happens and I expect it will then new Blackhawk orders would be a no go.

Virgina class I covered the end of Seawolf as it relates to the shift from peer adversary (the fall of the Soviet empire into the modern zombie we call the Russian Federation) NSSN was a shift to a lower end in terms of depth and a much more asymmetrical approach on future combat. It’s more shallow water with more SOF integrated equipment as well as cruise missiles. The NSSN aka Virginia class was a clean sheet design that used aspects of Seawolf design.
CH47F was a modernization and not much more. The Program that might have replaced it for the Army was the V22 but the army traded that to the Marines.
Super Hornet other than in name is a completely new aircraft vs the Legacy Hornets.
Advanced Medium STOL shifted priorities and became the C17.
C130J was a question of the USAF not having a new doctrine in mind more than anything. I mean if you don’t know what you want but need a new transport as the existing fleet is going on 50 years old. The Army has tried to convince the USAF to buy in doctrine ideas due to shifts in the weight and size of military light armored vehicles up.
 

Michaelsinodef

Senior Member
Registered Member
Well stralink is now officially part of USA military, Pentagon is now going to easily use it for their operations. Elon Musk is part of deep state, those people who still believe that Elon Musk is fighting government by releasing tweeter file etc & crying about his fake suicide Is just a bunch of crocodile tears . He is just an entitled celebrity and infact deep state love him very much and his project never faces lack of money & support, whatever he wants he can do, rest what you see is just a bunch of drama.

China should need to do counter operation & it should build it's own reusable rocket who can take multiple of space based satelite for internet . China should needs global satellite based internet constellation, because starlight would connect Everything seemlessly innreal time wheather it's UAV, fighter jets, ground troops gadgets, their AR camera, ships & all of the military bases of NATO.

All of Elon Musk project is useful for military.
Even his startship is a militry project, it might be used for quick cargo transportation of bunch of weapons & 100s of soldiers around the world within 20-30 minutes.



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Speed is everything in modern days war, USA is weaponising everything from social media, mass media, economy, technology, energy and space resources.

When they control all these things it gives them unique advantage unparallel to any other country even china.
Starship will not be used by the US military lol.

 

gelgoog

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
Had it not been for DoD funding Elon would never have been able to fund the initial flights for Falcon 1. And Falcon 9 for that matter. And then there is the NASA funding.

Elon is close friends with Peter Thiel and he is about as close to deep state as you can get like with his company Palantir technologies.

I will give you one more example. Back when Elon went to try to buy a refurbished Russian ICBM, for his space program supposedly, his chaperone was none other than Mike Griffin. Later NASA Administrator, and just before the President of In-Q-Tel. The CIA's R&D arm...
In the 1980s and 1990s Mike Griffin worked on projects related to the SDIO namely Brilliant Pebbles.
 
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Michaelsinodef

Senior Member
Registered Member
Had it not been for DoD funding Elon would never have been able to fund the initial flights for Falcon 1. And Falcon 9 for that matter. And then there is the NASA funding.

Elon is close friends with Peter Thiel and he is about as close to deep state as you can get like with his company Palantir technologies.

I will give you one more example. Back when Elon went to try to buy a refurbished Russian ICBM, for his space program supposedly, his chaperone was none other than Mike Griffin. Later NASA Administrator, and just before the President of In-Q-Tel. The CIA's R&D arm...
In the 1980s and 1990s Mike Griffin worked on projects related to the SDIO namely Brilliant Pebbles.
Sure, and I agree.

Still doesn't change the unrealistic idea of Starship being used by the US military.

Starlink and starshield sure, but the starship to transport stuff? Lol, no.
 
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