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anzha

Captain
Registered Member
US Navy's Next Generation Fighter (that's what its called in the budget):

FY20: $20M
FY21: $55M
FY22: $111M
FY23: $255M
FY24: $371M
FY20 plans:

Conduct systems engineering and mission effectiveness analysis to sufficiently review capabilities of the proposed family-of-system alternatives. This includes analysis and support of Advanced Development Program Office planning. Products include data sets, automated tools, and decision aids necessary to provide OPNAV and OSD the information to perform acquisition planning in support of warfighter capability requirements. Conduct briefing support as required by excursions at the direction of the AoA executive steering group
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Goal is a 2035 fighter (or family of systems). Big bump if any of this is accurate won't be to FY25 or FY26.

Note: the FY19 documents stated they were planning $5M for the next 4 years and that's clearly changed. Wait and see is all I can say, but given the US Navy's recent ambivalence to new stealth or unmanned aircraft...

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A

anzha

Captain
Registered Member
One more: The AETD engine development:

It should also be noted the AETD engine effort seems to be nearing its end:

FY20: $878M
FY21: $637M
FY22: $0M

That would signal (to me) either they have decided to move to procurement or end it.

An interesting tidbit:

Continue component rig activities. Continue technology, affordability, and sustainability studies. Continue engine fabrication. Begin engine assessments. Continue additional airframe integration/adaptive propulsion design efforts. More details can be provided in an appropriate forum.
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Careful on reading too much into it though.


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Brumby

Brumby

Major
@anzha
IMO you are not going to get any insightful take of where things are with the NGA by looking into the budget numbers.

I haven't really stay tuned on the program for some time because I believe the issues are still being debated at the think tank level and until some consensus are developed nothing is going to happen. in other words it is still in a state of flux. That said, it is useful to sty tune to some developing themes that eventually we will see convergence into the program. I also believe the ground has somewhat shifted from a platform centric model to a systems model. The difficulty in developing a strategic road map for the NGA is because unlike with past generations, the technological product cycles are changing much faster. A product centric model is increasingly unsuitable as a delivery mechanism. How that will playout is what is currently part of the blueprint conversation. Essentially it is about identifying the future threats, determining what current and future capabilities are needed to overcome those threats and finally how best to deliver those capabilities. There are some current themes to note and track. Firstly the concept of unmanned and manned collaboration platforms. This is primarily driven by advancement in AI. Secondly the idea of network superiority. Teaming requires network connectivity and system of systems require lots of network connectivity that are real time and robust even in a dense EW environment. Link 16 won't do and so a whole tactical communications network that is secured, stealthy with multi nodes need to be build. Finally the idea of spectrum domination. Fifth generation was about RF and to some IR domination. The next generation will be multi spectral. This requirement is going to significantly influence the shaping of a 6th generation platform.
 
A

anzha

Captain
Registered Member
Brumby said:
@anzha
IMO you are not going to get any insightful take of where things are with the NGA by looking into the budget numbers.

I haven't really stay tuned on the program for some time because I believe the issues are still being debated at the think tank level and until some consensus are developed nothing is going to happen.
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It should be noted that the AOA is done. They've settled on something. We don't know what. I expect there is something not quite ready (tech wise), but they think they can move forward to mature it.

I've posted before about the budget trajectory of the B-21 and that it is due to IOC (still) in 2024. The USAF RCO is running the B-21...and the NGAD. This is not a business as usual procurement. The only real data we have is from the budget. And lots can be told from the money spent.

Now, whether it will fail or not...well, we will see.
 
A

anzha

Captain
Registered Member
Speaking of the B-21:

FY20: $3,003M
FY21: $3,047M
FY22: $2,941M
FY23: $2,661M
FY24: $2,263M

This is actually /down/ compared to last year's projections by a modest $19M over the FY20 to FY23 years. Modest, to be sure, but...when was the last time a new aircraft came in /cheaper/ at all? We'll see if it holds or suddenly changes.

IOC is expected in 2024. There are supposed to be 4 B-21s at the end of the initial contract (iirc) and firm, fixed price for the remainder starting in FY25.

FY20 request:
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FY19:
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Brumby

Brumby

Major
anzha said:
It should be noted that the AOA is done. They've settled on something. We don't know what. I expect there is something not quite ready (tech wise), but they think they can move forward to mature it.
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Are you able to point to something official that the AOA is done? AFAIK the AOA is in the twilight zone.
 
Jura The idiot

Jura The idiot

General
anzha said:
US Navy's Next Generation Fighter (that's what its called in the budget):

FY20: $20M
FY21: $55M
FY22: $111M
FY23: $255M
FY24: $371M
FY20 plans:



Goal is a 2035 fighter (or family of systems). Big bump if any of this is accurate won't be to FY25 or FY26.

Note: the FY19 documents stated they were planning $5M for the next 4 years and that's clearly changed. Wait and see is all I can say, but given the US Navy's recent ambivalence to new stealth or unmanned aircraft...

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yeah the USN is interested in real aircraft Thursday at 8:38 PM
Jura said:
4001/78 = 51 of course rounded
Contracts for March 20, 2019
NAVY

The Boeing Co., St. Louis, Missouri, is awarded a ceiling priced $4,040,458,297 modification to convert a previously awarded advanced acquisition contract (N00019-18-C-1046) to a fixed-price-incentive-firm-target multi-year contract. The target price for this multi-year contract is $4,001,410,000. This modification provides for the full-rate production and delivery of 78 F/A-18 aircraft, specifically ...

... etc.:
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