“There are those that see JSF as the last manned fighter,” Admiral Mike Mullen, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told the Senate Armed Services Committee in 2009. “I’m one that’s inclined to believe that.”
In the all the discussions about 6th gen plane, the notion is about building a better mouse trap. However, sustaining innovation paradoxically contributes to the decline of manned combat aircraft because it drives cost and complexity skyward. “The last 10% of performance generates one-third of the cost and two-thirds of the problems,” observes Norman Augustine, chairman of Martin Marietta (“Defence Spending,” 2012, p. 22).
We are seeing 2 major trends coming to a tipping point as the scope and specs for a 6th gen. starts to crystallise and that is the issue of cost/affordability and the disruptive technology of unmanned vehicle. Secretary of Defence Robert Gates alluded to the former during a 2009 speech, “The perennial procurement and contracting cycle–going back many decades–of adding layer upon layer of cost and complexity onto fewer and fewer platforms that take longer and longer to build must come to an end.” A year later, Gates revisited the theme during remarks, appropriately enough, at the Eisenhower Presidential Library and Museum in 2010: “If nature takes its course, major weapons programs will devolve into pursuing the limits of what technology will bear without regard to cost or what a real world enemy can do – a process that over the past two decades has led to $20 million howitzers, $2 billion bombers, and 3 to 6 billion dollar destroyers. And when costs soar, the number of ships and planes the military can buy drops accordingly. For example, the Navy wanted 32 of the next generation destroyer – the DDG-1000; because of skyrocketing costs, we will build three. The Air Force wanted 132 B-2 bombers; at $2 billion each, we built 20. This is unsustainable.”
The above are extracts taken from an article titled “The Life cycle of manned aircraft” and it is insightful from the standpoint of not missing the forest from the trees.
The strategic consideration of developing a 6th gen. aircraft will be about cost and to what extent disruptive technology prevails against sustaining technology. This will be largely driven by the relative vision of the military leadership and the next few Secretary of Defence.